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So what I find interesting--even scary--is the disconnect between the economy and the stock market. Back in April near the bottom the advice I gave was that thi
by cletus 6y ago
So what I find interesting--even scary--is the disconnect between the economy and the stock market. Back in April near the bottom the advice I gave was that this was pretty serious and it's going to knock the economy off its feet so don't treat this like a short-term buying opportunity.
Here we are a few months later and the market has gone gangbusters. This is probably a consequence of zero-interest rates as there's really nowhere else for money to go. You have amateurs jumping into the market based largely on the market can only go up and you can't lose.
Once the market is disconnected from the economy like this it's just a question of when not if you have a reversion to mean and the market will typically get oversold when that happens. But how long will that take? I honestly have no idea. It could be months. Hell, it could even be years.
But a drop in GDP this large is shocking, probably even more shocking than people suspected. And before this I think a lot of people expected things would just get back to normal at some point. But a certain number of businesses and jobs are simply gone. That'll affect demand and probably take years to recover.
I've got a bad feeling about this.