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There's also a significant lag on many indicators because individuals and businesses have some buffers, either provided by government or their own financial ela

There's also a significant lag on many indicators because individuals and businesses have some buffers, either provided by government or their own financial elasticity. A couple of examples: many businesses reliant on tourist seasons will not have begun to feel the pinch until very recently, and will lag behind others in showing up in the reporting for most indicators. In the UK, the government furlough scheme means that the true picture of joblessness will only become apparent once people are removed from furlough and laid off. It seems to me (not an economist) that Q4 will be extraordinarily difficult and it's hard to see optimism for a pan-European recovery beginning until Q2 2021. The US is in a significantly worse position and many seem to expect states to continue with severe restrictions to simply prevent the further spread of the virus until the summer of next year, let alone beginning an economic recovery.

jermaustin1 6y ago
I live in a tiny tourist town (population of ~600) upriver from NYC, our busy season is from July to October spurred on by the millions of city dwellers who take the train up to our tiny town to go to our numerous festivals, our vibrant downtown shops and hike our wondrous mountain trails. Hiking has returned (but feels significantly down from last year), shops are open but not many people are training up, and all festivals for the rest of the year have been canceled. I know a handful of shops have shuttered, a few that I know the owners of are on the verge of shuttering, as I'm sure most of them are. I'm certain that once this pandemic is over, there will probably be some people who scoop up these shops for a steal, people will move back into the cities with rents depressed, and things will start recovering, but there will be a HUGE scar left that will keep consumer confidence down for a while. I'm worried that the millennials, having faced the second major economic blow in their short careers (mine included), are going to forever hold on to this trauma.
- jrs235 6y ago
  I'm near Kissimmee Florida (think Walt Disney World) right now. It's a ghost town compared to normal typical traffic and people present.
- departure 6y ago
  >there will probably be some people who scoop up these shops for a steal Yes, the ultra rich. This pandemic has resulted in the greatest upward transfer of wealth in history.

jermaustin1 6y ago

I live in a tiny tourist town (population of ~600) upriver from NYC, our busy season is from July to October spurred on by the millions of city dwellers who take the train up to our tiny town to go to our numerous festivals, our vibrant downtown shops and hike our wondrous mountain trails. Hiking has returned (but feels significantly down from last year), shops are open but not many people are training up, and all festivals for the rest of the year have been canceled. I know a handful of shops have shuttered, a few that I know the owners of are on the verge of shuttering, as I'm sure most of them are. I'm certain that once this pandemic is over, there will probably be some people who scoop up these shops for a steal, people will move back into the cities with rents depressed, and things will start recovering, but there will be a HUGE scar left that will keep consumer confidence down for a while. I'm worried that the millennials, having faced the second major economic blow in their short careers (mine included), are going to forever hold on to this trauma.

jrs235 6y ago
I'm near Kissimmee Florida (think Walt Disney World) right now. It's a ghost town compared to normal typical traffic and people present.
departure 6y ago
>there will probably be some people who scoop up these shops for a steal Yes, the ultra rich. This pandemic has resulted in the greatest upward transfer of wealth in history.