3 ms·
It can go on for a really long time unfortunately. Impossible to predict timing. And I don't think the social unrest will change the US's fiscal behavior unless
by starbugs 6y ago
It can go on for a really long time unfortunately. Impossible to predict timing. And I don't think the social unrest will change the US's fiscal behavior unless it's really getting messy (civil war messy).
When looking at history, debasing the currency has always produced inflation at a certain point, which then usually leads to the downfall of the predominant power structure. This then causes things to reset and start over eventually. It's highly likely it will be the same again.
Hypothetically, if China was to decide it wouldn't export anything to the US anymore tomorrow, we could see inflation pretty quickly. The same is true for the USD as the reserve currency. Hypothetically, if other nations were capable of organizing a viable alternative, that would be the end for the current fiscal behavior. Both are highly unlikely to occur anytime soon...
A major supply shock seems to be the biggest real risk in the short and medium term, as demand issues can easily be controlled with "Money printer go brrrr" again and again if you are in control of the planetary reserve currency, but supply issues cannot.