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Your first paragraph would appear to invalidate any argument about anything that cites data, as anyone can be told they are using a "political filter", that's a

Your first paragraph would appear to invalidate any argument about anything that cites data, as anyone can be told they are using a "political filter", that's an unfalsifiable claim. So I'll ignore it. If you have better data, show it! (And some replies from others are doing that) I don't think I understand your second paragraph. Of course some people die of COVID, or just isn't equal to the number reported for COVID deaths, which is "died with" and not "died of". That's not hand waving, it's well understood fact. In the short term there are definitely lots of people who test positive then die of something else, as virtually all covid deaths are of the old where it's often very hard to say what exactly they died of, and there can be many causes. Excess deaths are certainly not all COVID and there was an article today in the British press urging governments to focus on the new problem of large amounts of excess deaths in the home that aren't linked to covid in any way, but rather seem to be people who are struggling to get medical treatment for other things. N95 masks couldn't possibly have been used by all Americans in February for the same reason they can't be used now, the manufacturing capacity isn't there. That's why around the world people are using cloth masks which aren't proven to stop much of anything. As for Japanese people doing the right thing anyway, well, I don't want to get into national stereotyping.

mindslight 6y ago
> Your first paragraph would appear to invalidate any argument about anything that cites data, as anyone can be told they are using a "political filter" Unfortunately that is what happens when science gets dragged into politics. One team finds a list of studies showing things one way, the other team makes a list of refutations, and they're passed around as talking points. I'd rather just say I don't know without in-depth literature research, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and not attempt to draw strong emotionally-appealing conclusions such as "same or lower than flu". > I don't think I understand your second paragraph. Of course some people die of COVID Nobody dies of COVID, just like nobody dies of cancer. There is always some immediate acute condition that causes the death. And so saying that someone who tested positive then died of unrelated old person stuff is just another way of massaging numbers. While this scenario can happen, I don't think it's prevalent. > N95 masks couldn't possibly have been used by all Americans in February for the same reason they can't be used now I deliberately set the bar high, because if we had aimed there, we would have the manufacturing capacity by now. Saying we're unprepared now because we didn't do the work before isn't very interesting. Rather, take it as a call to start doing the work now so we're prepared in the future. > That's why around the world people are using cloth masks which aren't proven to stop much of anything. Ah, more offhanded FUD to justify inaction. We get it, you don't want to have to do anything. As I said, "skating as close as possible to calling the topic a hoax".
- thu2111 6y ago
  Well, nobody dies of COVID or cancer is a much stronger claim than I'm making, which is ultimately statistical. I think some people do die of COVID, same as they can die of flu. It's just very rare and not equal to the reported death rate. Re: science and politics. I've linked you to a couple of meta-reviews, done by people who searched the literature. You appear to be working backwards from a desired conclusion: that is, you deem "same or lower than flu" as emotionally appealing and therefore inherently likely to be wrong. But how is that logical? The correctness of an argument isn't based on whether the outcomes are emotionally satisfying or not. At any rate, I do hope you go and perform your own literature review or research, to find out what's really happening. Because right now you seem to be one of the people covered by the poll, who were significantly over-estimating the true dangers. Re: N95 masks. You're still making incorrect claims. N95 masks are built from a form of meltblown fiber. The machines that can create this kind of material are very niche and hard to construct. Each one has a fixed production capacity and the sort of manufacturers that make them work on them one at a time, with most stuff done by hand. Demand isn't high enough for them to be mass produced. That places hard limits on how fast material manufacture can be scaled up. People did look at this in February and realised there was no physical way to scale up N95 mask production on any kind of short timescale. The machinery just isn't there. Rather, take it as a call to start doing the work now so we're prepared in the future. There is a sad story related to this. The US only really has one mask company. He didn't ramp up production even during the midst of COVID times because in the past he's learned the hard way that governments panic over mild diseases, order lots of masks, so they scale up and hire new workers - then by the time the mask production is scaled up the panic is over and governments stop buying, leaving them nearly bankrupt. So he just didn't do it again. Fundamentally, governments are too incompetent and panic prone to manage disease. It's been proven over and over. They even burn people who can make medical equipment, such that they don't want to help again. At any rate, N95 masks are inappropriate for the general population. You can get things like this: https://abcnews.go.com/US/driver-crash-passed-wearing-n95-mask-long-police/story?id=70346532 https://abcnews.go.com/US/driver-crash-passed-wearing-n95-ma... Ah, more offhanded FUD to justify inaction It's not FUD. Cloth masks can't stop viruses, they're far too small. They only stop liquid droplets, but they also saturate within hours and need to be thrown away. Most people aren't doing that, it's been studied. Again, go do your own research.

mindslight 6y ago

> Your first paragraph would appear to invalidate any argument about anything that cites data, as anyone can be told they are using a "political filter" Unfortunately that is what happens when science gets dragged into politics. One team finds a list of studies showing things one way, the other team makes a list of refutations, and they're passed around as talking points. I'd rather just say I don't know without in-depth literature research, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and not attempt to draw strong emotionally-appealing conclusions such as "same or lower than flu". > I don't think I understand your second paragraph. Of course some people die of COVID Nobody dies of COVID, just like nobody dies of cancer. There is always some immediate acute condition that causes the death. And so saying that someone who tested positive then died of unrelated old person stuff is just another way of massaging numbers. While this scenario can happen, I don't think it's prevalent. > N95 masks couldn't possibly have been used by all Americans in February for the same reason they can't be used now I deliberately set the bar high, because if we had aimed there, we would have the manufacturing capacity by now. Saying we're unprepared now because we didn't do the work before isn't very interesting. Rather, take it as a call to start doing the work now so we're prepared in the future. > That's why around the world people are using cloth masks which aren't proven to stop much of anything. Ah, more offhanded FUD to justify inaction. We get it, you don't want to have to do anything. As I said, "skating as close as possible to calling the topic a hoax".

thu2111 6y ago
Well, nobody dies of COVID or cancer is a much stronger claim than I'm making, which is ultimately statistical. I think some people do die of COVID, same as they can die of flu. It's just very rare and not equal to the reported death rate. Re: science and politics. I've linked you to a couple of meta-reviews, done by people who searched the literature. You appear to be working backwards from a desired conclusion: that is, you deem "same or lower than flu" as emotionally appealing and therefore inherently likely to be wrong. But how is that logical? The correctness of an argument isn't based on whether the outcomes are emotionally satisfying or not. At any rate, I do hope you go and perform your own literature review or research, to find out what's really happening. Because right now you seem to be one of the people covered by the poll, who were significantly over-estimating the true dangers. Re: N95 masks. You're still making incorrect claims. N95 masks are built from a form of meltblown fiber. The machines that can create this kind of material are very niche and hard to construct. Each one has a fixed production capacity and the sort of manufacturers that make them work on them one at a time, with most stuff done by hand. Demand isn't high enough for them to be mass produced. That places hard limits on how fast material manufacture can be scaled up. People did look at this in February and realised there was no physical way to scale up N95 mask production on any kind of short timescale. The machinery just isn't there. Rather, take it as a call to start doing the work now so we're prepared in the future. There is a sad story related to this. The US only really has one mask company. He didn't ramp up production even during the midst of COVID times because in the past he's learned the hard way that governments panic over mild diseases, order lots of masks, so they scale up and hire new workers - then by the time the mask production is scaled up the panic is over and governments stop buying, leaving them nearly bankrupt. So he just didn't do it again. Fundamentally, governments are too incompetent and panic prone to manage disease. It's been proven over and over. They even burn people who can make medical equipment, such that they don't want to help again. At any rate, N95 masks are inappropriate for the general population. You can get things like this: https://abcnews.go.com/US/driver-crash-passed-wearing-n95-mask-long-police/story?id=70346532 https://abcnews.go.com/US/driver-crash-passed-wearing-n95-ma... Ah, more offhanded FUD to justify inaction It's not FUD. Cloth masks can't stop viruses, they're far too small. They only stop liquid droplets, but they also saturate within hours and need to be thrown away. Most people aren't doing that, it's been studied. Again, go do your own research.