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What risk, exactly? The risk of going outside, going on holiday, spending time with other people? If the risk is the same or lower than flu, which these studie

What risk, exactly? The risk of going outside, going on holiday, spending time with other people? If the risk is the same or lower than flu, which these studies say it is, then we should act as we do in flu years, which is every year, i.e. we shouldn't be changing anything. you're pushing politically-filtered numbers with copious hand waving No, I'm providing hard data in the face of people who have been misled into thinking the virus is more dangerous than it really is. That isn't "copious hand waving". Perhaps though, you wish it was? The virus became long ago a deeply ideological matter for the left, some of whom seem to almost hope it's very deadly. But my points here aren't ideological, they're factual. Most developed countries have gotten this under control. The US has chosen not to. I'm not American but this strange "we Americans uniquely suck" narrative just seems silly. In the past few days the UK decided everyone returning from Spain must go into 14 day quarantine where they aren't allowed out of their house for any reason, not even to buy food, and this must be done even if they are healthy. It was done without any warning and there will be no wage compensation for those who can't work because they're quarantined. Then almost immediately after they decided that actually 14 days wasn't necessary after all (science!!), and dropped it to "only" 10 days. The justification for this was a supposed "surge" in Spanish cases. Absolute numbers are of course still tiny, but a quick check of the data shows that the surge started at exactly the same time that test volumes started ramping up, and the proportion of tests coming back positive has hardly changed. There are similar stories of self-inflicted wounds from nearly every country except, it seems, Sweden and bizarrely, Belarus. And that was my original point. COVID-19 is an entirely artificial disaster, made by the absurd and illogical reactions of people. It's not a natural biological disaster. The bad effects are all coming from the decisions people are making.

mindslight 6y ago
> I'm providing hard data Your "hard data" has been drawn from the pool of all studies using a political filter, meaning it has sampling bias and is no longer hard data. I am guessing that is the lowest IFR number you can find, therefore its reasonable to assume that the true one is decently higher. Here is an example of your hand waving: > Real IFRs are much lower when you take into account that many people who have "died of COVID" have in reality died of something else, even perhaps the supposedly no longer existent condition of old age. If one is not thinking critically, this can sound reasonable. But rather this is a huge back door because nobody dies "of COVID" - it's always going to be some other medical condition caused by COVID. In the short time frame involved, there aren't going to be too many people who test positive for COVID then die of unrelated causes. On the longer term, we can simply look at excess deaths. > I'm not American but this strange "we Americans uniquely suck" narrative just seems silly. For one, the fact that Americans haven't been able to do basic things like wear N95 masks starting in February. For two, the death toll. The differences between countries are easily explained with culture. Japan had no formal shutdown but yet stayed in control because Japanese citizens did the right thing anyway. Many Americans seem hell bent on doing the exact opposite, in some simulation of rebelling. In general, it seems like you're skating as close as possible to calling the topic a hoax, without directly doing so.
- thu2111 6y ago
  Your first paragraph would appear to invalidate any argument about anything that cites data, as anyone can be told they are using a "political filter", that's an unfalsifiable claim. So I'll ignore it. If you have better data, show it! (And some replies from others are doing that) I don't think I understand your second paragraph. Of course some people die of COVID, or just isn't equal to the number reported for COVID deaths, which is "died with" and not "died of". That's not hand waving, it's well understood fact. In the short term there are definitely lots of people who test positive then die of something else, as virtually all covid deaths are of the old where it's often very hard to say what exactly they died of, and there can be many causes. Excess deaths are certainly not all COVID and there was an article today in the British press urging governments to focus on the new problem of large amounts of excess deaths in the home that aren't linked to covid in any way, but rather seem to be people who are struggling to get medical treatment for other things. N95 masks couldn't possibly have been used by all Americans in February for the same reason they can't be used now, the manufacturing capacity isn't there. That's why around the world people are using cloth masks which aren't proven to stop much of anything. As for Japanese people doing the right thing anyway, well, I don't want to get into national stereotyping.
  - mindslight 6y ago
    > Your first paragraph would appear to invalidate any argument about anything that cites data, as anyone can be told they are using a "political filter" Unfortunately that is what happens when science gets dragged into politics. One team finds a list of studies showing things one way, the other team makes a list of refutations, and they're passed around as talking points. I'd rather just say I don't know without in-depth literature research, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and not attempt to draw strong emotionally-appealing conclusions such as "same or lower than flu". > I don't think I understand your second paragraph. Of course some people die of COVID Nobody dies of COVID, just like nobody dies of cancer. There is always some immediate acute condition that causes the death. And so saying that someone who tested positive then died of unrelated old person stuff is just another way of massaging numbers. While this scenario can happen, I don't think it's prevalent. > N95 masks couldn't possibly have been used by all Americans in February for the same reason they can't be used now I deliberately set the bar high, because if we had aimed there, we would have the manufacturing capacity by now. Saying we're unprepared now because we didn't do the work before isn't very interesting. Rather, take it as a call to start doing the work now so we're prepared in the future. > That's why around the world people are using cloth masks which aren't proven to stop much of anything. Ah, more offhanded FUD to justify inaction. We get it, you don't want to have to do anything. As I said, "skating as close as possible to calling the topic a hoax".

mindslight 6y ago

> I'm providing hard data Your "hard data" has been drawn from the pool of all studies using a political filter, meaning it has sampling bias and is no longer hard data. I am guessing that is the lowest IFR number you can find, therefore its reasonable to assume that the true one is decently higher. Here is an example of your hand waving: > Real IFRs are much lower when you take into account that many people who have "died of COVID" have in reality died of something else, even perhaps the supposedly no longer existent condition of old age. If one is not thinking critically, this can sound reasonable. But rather this is a huge back door because nobody dies "of COVID" - it's always going to be some other medical condition caused by COVID. In the short time frame involved, there aren't going to be too many people who test positive for COVID then die of unrelated causes. On the longer term, we can simply look at excess deaths. > I'm not American but this strange "we Americans uniquely suck" narrative just seems silly. For one, the fact that Americans haven't been able to do basic things like wear N95 masks starting in February. For two, the death toll. The differences between countries are easily explained with culture. Japan had no formal shutdown but yet stayed in control because Japanese citizens did the right thing anyway. Many Americans seem hell bent on doing the exact opposite, in some simulation of rebelling. In general, it seems like you're skating as close as possible to calling the topic a hoax, without directly doing so.

thu2111 6y ago
Your first paragraph would appear to invalidate any argument about anything that cites data, as anyone can be told they are using a "political filter", that's an unfalsifiable claim. So I'll ignore it. If you have better data, show it! (And some replies from others are doing that) I don't think I understand your second paragraph. Of course some people die of COVID, or just isn't equal to the number reported for COVID deaths, which is "died with" and not "died of". That's not hand waving, it's well understood fact. In the short term there are definitely lots of people who test positive then die of something else, as virtually all covid deaths are of the old where it's often very hard to say what exactly they died of, and there can be many causes. Excess deaths are certainly not all COVID and there was an article today in the British press urging governments to focus on the new problem of large amounts of excess deaths in the home that aren't linked to covid in any way, but rather seem to be people who are struggling to get medical treatment for other things. N95 masks couldn't possibly have been used by all Americans in February for the same reason they can't be used now, the manufacturing capacity isn't there. That's why around the world people are using cloth masks which aren't proven to stop much of anything. As for Japanese people doing the right thing anyway, well, I don't want to get into national stereotyping.
- mindslight 6y ago
  > Your first paragraph would appear to invalidate any argument about anything that cites data, as anyone can be told they are using a "political filter" Unfortunately that is what happens when science gets dragged into politics. One team finds a list of studies showing things one way, the other team makes a list of refutations, and they're passed around as talking points. I'd rather just say I don't know without in-depth literature research, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and not attempt to draw strong emotionally-appealing conclusions such as "same or lower than flu". > I don't think I understand your second paragraph. Of course some people die of COVID Nobody dies of COVID, just like nobody dies of cancer. There is always some immediate acute condition that causes the death. And so saying that someone who tested positive then died of unrelated old person stuff is just another way of massaging numbers. While this scenario can happen, I don't think it's prevalent. > N95 masks couldn't possibly have been used by all Americans in February for the same reason they can't be used now I deliberately set the bar high, because if we had aimed there, we would have the manufacturing capacity by now. Saying we're unprepared now because we didn't do the work before isn't very interesting. Rather, take it as a call to start doing the work now so we're prepared in the future. > That's why around the world people are using cloth masks which aren't proven to stop much of anything. Ah, more offhanded FUD to justify inaction. We get it, you don't want to have to do anything. As I said, "skating as close as possible to calling the topic a hoax".