5 ms·

Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades

37 points by makerofspoons 6y ago

mensetmanusman 6y ago
Financial Advisors say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Centuries.
eindiran 6y ago
The original paper is here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6 I disagree with their approach and conclusion ("Deforestation will continue accelerating at the same rate forever! Technology will continue accelerating at the same rate forever! Population growth will continue at the same rate forever!"), which strikes me as being misguided in a classically Malthusian way. But the paper is worth taking a look at, as there is an interesting discussion of the Fermi paradox, where we lie on the Kardashev scale, and the possibility that societal collapse due to overconsumption of resources is the Great Filter[0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter
- mensetmanusman 6y ago
  Not sure a great filter is necessary. The universe is probably brimming with life, there is just no way to travel such distances due to quality of life issues in interstellar space. Also, energy required to actually communicate that you exist to the entire universe is star consuming...
- DeonPenny 6y ago
  Yeh for one population rates are slowing down and has for every country that has industrialize to below replacement rate. Its more likely we'd die from underpopulation
- Recurecur 6y ago
  Right, it is directly the "argument by precedent" fallacy. It has happened that way before, therefore it always will! (Waking up in the morning, for instance...) The same exact thing happened with "The Limits of Growth", written during the 60's (MIT group). Bad assumptions, scenario didn't happen. That's not to say there aren't problems, but the global war that's likely about to start will set population back a fair bit I think. That's a much more immediate and real concern than hypothetical future deforestation. On a happier note, the wood producers replant a whole bunch of trees after harvest. It's not like the forests are actually "vanishing" in first-world countries.
- monkeydreams 6y ago
  The problems with the Fermi Paradox are so foundational that using it as the basis of any assumption about the distribution of extra-terrestrial life, let alone extra-terrestrial intelligence, is futile. We just don't know what other life will look like, where it will live, on what timescale it operates, or, well, anything. And this is before we then take into account the changes that intelligence will wrought. An advanced, intelligent race could appear as nearly, literally anything it chooses. We are basing these ideas of Great Filters, Dark Forests, etc on the idea that the universe is apparently empty. It could be obviously teeming with life that we are unable to see because it operates outside of our lifespans and contexts. They might have noticed that Earth has recently developed a petroleum and concrete surface scum and are frantically (for their frame of reference) inquiring as to whether Earth is OK or if it has a disease.
gandalfian 6y ago
Two of them.
ncmncm 6y ago
When even the theoretical physicists are sounding the alarm, it is past time to pay attention.
- themonoid 6y ago
  The physicists in the article are trying to predict the behavior of Earth, by modeling it as a simple forest, and then adding some secondary terms to account for technology with the potential to improve humanity's access to energy. https://xkcd.com/793/ https://xkcd.com/793/
bsd44 6y ago
So how come they didn't publish this in February?
- tolbish 6y ago
  The paper was received in November and published in May. The peer-review process usually takes at least months before a paper is published.
tqi 6y ago
Why is it that physicists, along with economists, seem to be especially prone to ultracrepidarianism?
- haecceity 6y ago
  Everyone does that. You'd be surprised how often people do it here.
- throwawaysea 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism > Ultracrepidarianism is the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters outside of one's knowledge.
curation 6y ago
I say there is a 100% chance that the epoch of Empire is over.
eli_gottlieb 6y ago
That's a clickbait title if I ever saw one, and the actual paper is not much better. Flagged.
thedudeabides5 6y ago
In other news, two biologists got together and determined that the sun will burn itself out in “about ten thousand years” and a pair of chemists have come out predicting the polar icecaps will be entirely melted by Thursday.

37 points by makerofspoons 6y ago

Financial Advisors say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Centuries.

The original paper is here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6 I disagree with their approach and conclusion ("Deforestation will continue accelerating at the same rate forever! Technology will continue accelerating at the same rate forever! Population growth will continue at the same rate forever!"), which strikes me as being misguided in a classically Malthusian way. But the paper is worth taking a look at, as there is an interesting discussion of the Fermi paradox, where we lie on the Kardashev scale, and the possibility that societal collapse due to overconsumption of resources is the Great Filter[0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

mensetmanusman 6y ago
Not sure a great filter is necessary. The universe is probably brimming with life, there is just no way to travel such distances due to quality of life issues in interstellar space. Also, energy required to actually communicate that you exist to the entire universe is star consuming...
DeonPenny 6y ago
Yeh for one population rates are slowing down and has for every country that has industrialize to below replacement rate. Its more likely we'd die from underpopulation
Recurecur 6y ago
Right, it is directly the "argument by precedent" fallacy. It has happened that way before, therefore it always will! (Waking up in the morning, for instance...) The same exact thing happened with "The Limits of Growth", written during the 60's (MIT group). Bad assumptions, scenario didn't happen. That's not to say there aren't problems, but the global war that's likely about to start will set population back a fair bit I think. That's a much more immediate and real concern than hypothetical future deforestation. On a happier note, the wood producers replant a whole bunch of trees after harvest. It's not like the forests are actually "vanishing" in first-world countries.
monkeydreams 6y ago
The problems with the Fermi Paradox are so foundational that using it as the basis of any assumption about the distribution of extra-terrestrial life, let alone extra-terrestrial intelligence, is futile. We just don't know what other life will look like, where it will live, on what timescale it operates, or, well, anything. And this is before we then take into account the changes that intelligence will wrought. An advanced, intelligent race could appear as nearly, literally anything it chooses. We are basing these ideas of Great Filters, Dark Forests, etc on the idea that the universe is apparently empty. It could be obviously teeming with life that we are unable to see because it operates outside of our lifespans and contexts. They might have noticed that Earth has recently developed a petroleum and concrete surface scum and are frantically (for their frame of reference) inquiring as to whether Earth is OK or if it has a disease.

gandalfian 6y ago

Two of them.

ncmncm 6y ago

When even the theoretical physicists are sounding the alarm, it is past time to pay attention.

themonoid 6y ago
The physicists in the article are trying to predict the behavior of Earth, by modeling it as a simple forest, and then adding some secondary terms to account for technology with the potential to improve humanity's access to energy. https://xkcd.com/793/ https://xkcd.com/793/

bsd44 6y ago

So how come they didn't publish this in February?

tolbish 6y ago
The paper was received in November and published in May. The peer-review process usually takes at least months before a paper is published.

tqi 6y ago

Why is it that physicists, along with economists, seem to be especially prone to ultracrepidarianism?

haecceity 6y ago
Everyone does that. You'd be surprised how often people do it here.
throwawaysea 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism > Ultracrepidarianism is the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters outside of one's knowledge.

curation 6y ago

I say there is a 100% chance that the epoch of Empire is over.

eli_gottlieb 6y ago

That's a clickbait title if I ever saw one, and the actual paper is not much better. Flagged.

thedudeabides5 6y ago

In other news, two biologists got together and determined that the sun will burn itself out in “about ten thousand years” and a pair of chemists have come out predicting the polar icecaps will be entirely melted by Thursday.