4 ms·
This is premature at best and a potentially misleading statement by the WHO. Perhaps things haven't improved as much during the summer as we'd like, but seasona
by napier 6y ago
This is premature at best and a potentially misleading statement by the WHO. Perhaps things haven't improved as much during the summer as we'd like, but seasonality is difficult to disaggregate from non-pharmaceutical countermeasures being lifted as we moved into warmer, sunnier weather in the northern hemisphere.
Based on everything we know about infectious disease transmission and illness severity in general, infection rate indicators and case severity are likely to worsen throughout fall and become particularly nasty during the depths of winter. Seasonal reduction in sunlight exposure suppresses immunity (it's not just an issue of vitamin-D), bacteria and mold exposure upticks dramatically as cool, damp days predominate in much of the northern hemisphere.
Air pollution increases as old weather reduces dispersal rates and people burn more fuel to heat their homes while driving more to avoid trudging through rain and snow in the gloom. And if they're not driving, then they're using public transport, and as we know, buses and trains are petri dishes. Some other infectious diseases are likely to play well with SARS2, as is observed with a variety of bacterial infections and common cold associated coronaviruses.
On top of all this, populations are much more likely to huddle together indoors, often in poorly ventilated spaces which allows bioaerosols to concentrate, making a physical distancing impractical for many and multiplying viral exposure load. This can be mitigated by taking steps to upgrade ventilation, adding air cleaning and sterilization countermeasures, and at an individual level, wearing the best available masks and sealed eye protection while indoors with people outside of your quarantine bubble.
Let's hope for the best while preparing for the worst.
- gizmo 6y agoThis just means that the R0 is higher during the winter months, immunity will still accumulate to the point where the virus will be contained to small clusters here and there.
- napier 6y agoYes, it's an overview of the factors that will likely drive R0 to increase during winter months. R0 is highly context dependant variable, it is not a constant. What evidence are you drawing upon to suggest that immunity will have accumulated by then enough to limit outbreaks to small containable clusters?