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I've spent much less time looking at global numbers after ~April, as our focus has turned inward to making things go well locally. As a matter of experimental

by ISL 6y ago

I've spent much less time looking at global numbers after ~April, as our focus has turned inward to making things go well locally. As a matter of experimental practice, however, there should be sufficient information to infer whether or not to expect much seasonal variation in COVID-19 infections. The pandemic emerged at the end of winter in the northern hemisphere. It is now full-on summer. In the southern hemisphere, however, the sign is flipped. It is now full-on winter. Unfortunately, the Covid pandemic is now a high-statistics event. There are oodles of cases in locations that span the full gamut of humidity and temperature distributions. Societal variations (policy, economics, politics, etc.) complicate the experiment, but the opportunity to make a reasonable quantitative statement on the impact of seasonal climatic variation on Covid transmission is surely there.

gridlockd 6y ago
> In the southern hemisphere, however, the sign is flipped. It is now full-on winter. There isn't really a "full-on winter" in the southern hemisphere except in the southernmost parts of Chile/Argentina/Australia or in New Zealand. That makes it difficult to compare.
- ISL 6y ago
  South Africa is reporting ~10,000 cases/day.Chile is reporting thousands of cases a day. The cross-society systematic uncertainties are the major challenge, as every country and culture is attacking this thing differently (and NZ is crushing it). If there is a strong seasonal effect, it should be apparent throughout global datasets, both from a latitude-dependent dynamic in the northern hemisphere and variation with opposite sign for locations with equal and opposite latitude. It is my continued guess that meaningful bounds on any seasonal effect are not inaccessable. From US data alone, it is clear that R_0 is not impacted by a factor of ~2-5 by summertime climate. We're still losing.

by ISL 6y ago

gridlockd 6y ago

> In the southern hemisphere, however, the sign is flipped. It is now full-on winter. There isn't really a "full-on winter" in the southern hemisphere except in the southernmost parts of Chile/Argentina/Australia or in New Zealand. That makes it difficult to compare.

ISL 6y ago
South Africa is reporting ~10,000 cases/day.Chile is reporting thousands of cases a day. The cross-society systematic uncertainties are the major challenge, as every country and culture is attacking this thing differently (and NZ is crushing it). If there is a strong seasonal effect, it should be apparent throughout global datasets, both from a latitude-dependent dynamic in the northern hemisphere and variation with opposite sign for locations with equal and opposite latitude. It is my continued guess that meaningful bounds on any seasonal effect are not inaccessable. From US data alone, it is clear that R_0 is not impacted by a factor of ~2-5 by summertime climate. We're still losing.