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> We also see that the virus can not be brought under control without permanent lockdowns. As soon as you open up, the virus starts spreading again. Countries t

by tensor 6y ago

> We also see that the virus can not be brought under control without permanent lockdowns. As soon as you open up, the virus starts spreading again. Countries that now have the virus "under control" have had a significant amount of uncontrolled spread beforehand. I think this is the point. They are not saying it could get worse in winter months, they are saying that summer is not a "low season" and that it will spread just fine without controls. The data supports that.

gridlockd 6y ago
How do we know that other seasonal viruses don't also "spread fine" during summer, except that the illness is less severe?
- SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
  Because the elderly experience it several regardless, and so would continue to experience a year round "cold and flu season". Or do you mean the viruses properties change?
- tensor 6y ago
  Because we don't do anything special in the summer and there is very little flu compared with "flu season." Here is data, just select the US: https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1 https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1 edit: In fact, take a look at Brazil or India, places that are hot year round. They have very few instances of the flu no matter the time of year. This shows that it doesn't spread much in warm weather. We already know that covid-19 does spread in warm weather.
  - gridlockd 6y ago
    > In fact, take a look at Brazil or India, places that are hot year round. They have very few instances of the flu no matter the time of year. This shows that it doesn't spread much in warm weather. I would argue that it doesn't show that. Nobody is testing for Influenza if it's just a "mild" case. What is being tracked is deaths from pneumonia that are attributed to Influenza. If you look at the mortality in India or Brazil, it's way lower than in countries further from the equator. You also would expect testing capacity to be lower, so there's likely more unknown cases there.

by tensor 6y ago

gridlockd 6y ago

How do we know that other seasonal viruses don't also "spread fine" during summer, except that the illness is less severe?

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
Because the elderly experience it several regardless, and so would continue to experience a year round "cold and flu season". Or do you mean the viruses properties change?
tensor 6y ago
Because we don't do anything special in the summer and there is very little flu compared with "flu season." Here is data, just select the US: https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1 https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1 edit: In fact, take a look at Brazil or India, places that are hot year round. They have very few instances of the flu no matter the time of year. This shows that it doesn't spread much in warm weather. We already know that covid-19 does spread in warm weather.
- gridlockd 6y ago
  > In fact, take a look at Brazil or India, places that are hot year round. They have very few instances of the flu no matter the time of year. This shows that it doesn't spread much in warm weather. I would argue that it doesn't show that. Nobody is testing for Influenza if it's just a "mild" case. What is being tracked is deaths from pneumonia that are attributed to Influenza. If you look at the mortality in India or Brazil, it's way lower than in countries further from the equator. You also would expect testing capacity to be lower, so there's likely more unknown cases there.