6 ms·

It’s well into summer in the northern hemisphere and the virus is still spreading as rapidly as ever, so that would be pretty good reason to think it’s not seas

It’s well into summer in the northern hemisphere and the virus is still spreading as rapidly as ever, so that would be pretty good reason to think it’s not seasonal like the flu, which dies down a lot in the summer.

icedchai 6y ago
Maybe this is "died down"... That is scary to think. It could get worse in the winter. We just don't know.
- mdgrech23 6y ago
  That's been my hunch too. It's going to be a dark winter.
- stx 6y ago
  This is what worries me. Although I would imagine that if that was the case we might be seeing it in the southern hemisphere already.
  - lbebber 6y ago
    FWIW it is getting worse just now in the south of Brazil, where we have colder winters.
    - stx 6y ago
      I always think of Brazil as hot and humid but I have never been there. How cold does it get in southern Brazil? I also never realized how large some countries are as far as population.
      - lbebber 6y ago
        We've had -3ºC these weeks, which is about as cold as it gets here. It snows in some regions but it's a bit rare, once in a year in some places, once in a decade in others.
- phreack 6y ago
  It actually is winter in half the world and it's as bad as everywhere else. Makes me think weather doesn't play a factor, just people and the degree of protection they collectively take.
  - iso1631 6y ago
    Problem is in Winter you also have normal flu season, pressure on hospitals is higher, etc. The reason the UK locked down was to "protect the NHS". The lockdown worked - dramatically, spread was cut to almost zero overnight, the extra hospitals that were built weren't needed.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      > Problem is in Winter you also have normal flu season, pressure on hospitals is higher, etc. Right, but the point is: Australia etc. are in winter. Right now. We have that data; there's more to the world than just the top half. (Incidentally, COVID precautions appear to be working well on flu, too. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-measures-have-all-but-wiped-out-the-flu-in-the-southern-hemisphere-11595440682 https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-measures-have-all-but-...)
      - iso1631 6y ago
        Australian winter is hardly the same thing as a European or worse US winter. Sydney's temperature tomorrow is a high of 17, low of 10. Glasgow's temperature tomorrow is a high of 19, low of 10.
        ceejayoz 6y ago
        Australia is more than just Sydney, and the Southern Hemisphere has more than just Australia. It's plenty chilly in southern Chile.
        iso1631 6y ago
        As for Austrialia, Melbourne's high today is 16, Perth 21, Brisbane 21, Hobart 15, Adelaide 16. NZ - Christchurch 12C, Wellington 15C, Aukland 16C. South Africa, Cape Town high of 19, Joburg high of 18, similar to Glasgow in Summer. South America? Yes it's chilly in Southern Chilie. There's barely anybody living there. Same in Argentina - Ushuaia has a population of 130k and a high of 6C today. Arkangel is 3 times the size and has an average high of -9C in winter. Fairbanks population about 100k and high of -17 in the winter. The population south of Viedma, Neuquén and Valdivia (highs today of around 13) is well under 3 million, with towns mostly less than 100k. Santiago's high today is 33. BA has a high of 15. That's not the same as a northern winter. Compare with Beijing, population 20 million, average highs of 2C in winter. Chicago, 1C, 9 million. Moscow -4C, 12 million. Comparing a Southern winter with a Northern winter is disingenuous - it's milder, there's far fewer people, and far smaller cities with far lower density.
iso1631 6y ago
virus has died down in Europe and Asia, although may be upticking in Europe again. Seems clear it's not heat related though - In Europe when people socially distanced there were few cases. As people are more blasé about it cases start to tick back up.
- harryVic 6y ago
  India had 50,000 new cases yesterday. Virus has not died down in Asia.
  - iso1631 6y ago
    East Asia.
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      The countries you think of first aren't recording many new cases, but Indonesia and the Philippines are.
- thebruce87m 6y ago
  I can’t speak for all of Europe, but in the U.K. we still have lots of business shut down, like swimming pools and cinemas (at least in Scotland). Masks are mandatory in supermarkets. Nurseries are returning next week. We have just enforced quarantine if you return from Spain and it’s islands due to a spike there. We are also doing local lockdowns in certain cities due to. So it has died down, but that’s due to the measures we have enforced. The fact that localised spikes are happening I think proves that it’s not “run its course”.
  - iso1631 6y ago
    In the UK mask adherance in supermarkets is spotty at best, but when I say "died down" that's because we've been following social distancing measures. The feeling I get is that the public However high density mass transit in cities is still empty on the most part (there's always exceptions) - most "knowledge workers" (the ones that cram into cities on overcrowded peak trains every day) are remaining at home. Those working in factories, warehouses and shops tend to drive there, so there's less opportunity to spread. Johnson is trying to get people back to offices to save share prices of Starbucks and Pret. I get the feeling it's that, combined with fewer people out at pubs, that's keeping it at bay. We've expected to see increases ever since the VE Day conga lines, the Bournemouth Beaches, the BLM protests, and the pubs reopening, and on the whole we haven't seen it. I certainly don't think it's run it's course, but aside from local outbreaks which seem linked to poor factory conditions (the meat packing industry especially seems vulnerable), Leicester sweat shops) it does seem to be rumbling on without the exponential growth we saw in March.
xiphias2 6y ago
In summertime many people can go to their vacation homes with gardens far from the cities, and work remotely, so it's much harder to keep distance in the cold winter. I expect the winter being worse for the countries that weren't hit that hard in the summer.

icedchai 6y ago

Maybe this is "died down"... That is scary to think. It could get worse in the winter. We just don't know.

mdgrech23 6y ago
That's been my hunch too. It's going to be a dark winter.
stx 6y ago
This is what worries me. Although I would imagine that if that was the case we might be seeing it in the southern hemisphere already.
- lbebber 6y ago
  FWIW it is getting worse just now in the south of Brazil, where we have colder winters.
  - stx 6y ago
    I always think of Brazil as hot and humid but I have never been there. How cold does it get in southern Brazil? I also never realized how large some countries are as far as population.
    - lbebber 6y ago
      We've had -3ºC these weeks, which is about as cold as it gets here. It snows in some regions but it's a bit rare, once in a year in some places, once in a decade in others.
phreack 6y ago
It actually is winter in half the world and it's as bad as everywhere else. Makes me think weather doesn't play a factor, just people and the degree of protection they collectively take.
- iso1631 6y ago
  Problem is in Winter you also have normal flu season, pressure on hospitals is higher, etc. The reason the UK locked down was to "protect the NHS". The lockdown worked - dramatically, spread was cut to almost zero overnight, the extra hospitals that were built weren't needed.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    > Problem is in Winter you also have normal flu season, pressure on hospitals is higher, etc. Right, but the point is: Australia etc. are in winter. Right now. We have that data; there's more to the world than just the top half. (Incidentally, COVID precautions appear to be working well on flu, too. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-measures-have-all-but-wiped-out-the-flu-in-the-southern-hemisphere-11595440682 https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-measures-have-all-but-...)
    - iso1631 6y ago
      Australian winter is hardly the same thing as a European or worse US winter. Sydney's temperature tomorrow is a high of 17, low of 10. Glasgow's temperature tomorrow is a high of 19, low of 10.
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        Australia is more than just Sydney, and the Southern Hemisphere has more than just Australia. It's plenty chilly in southern Chile.
        iso1631 6y ago
        As for Austrialia, Melbourne's high today is 16, Perth 21, Brisbane 21, Hobart 15, Adelaide 16. NZ - Christchurch 12C, Wellington 15C, Aukland 16C. South Africa, Cape Town high of 19, Joburg high of 18, similar to Glasgow in Summer. South America? Yes it's chilly in Southern Chilie. There's barely anybody living there. Same in Argentina - Ushuaia has a population of 130k and a high of 6C today. Arkangel is 3 times the size and has an average high of -9C in winter. Fairbanks population about 100k and high of -17 in the winter. The population south of Viedma, Neuquén and Valdivia (highs today of around 13) is well under 3 million, with towns mostly less than 100k. Santiago's high today is 33. BA has a high of 15. That's not the same as a northern winter. Compare with Beijing, population 20 million, average highs of 2C in winter. Chicago, 1C, 9 million. Moscow -4C, 12 million. Comparing a Southern winter with a Northern winter is disingenuous - it's milder, there's far fewer people, and far smaller cities with far lower density.

iso1631 6y ago

virus has died down in Europe and Asia, although may be upticking in Europe again. Seems clear it's not heat related though - In Europe when people socially distanced there were few cases. As people are more blasé about it cases start to tick back up.

harryVic 6y ago
India had 50,000 new cases yesterday. Virus has not died down in Asia.
- iso1631 6y ago
  East Asia.
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    The countries you think of first aren't recording many new cases, but Indonesia and the Philippines are.
thebruce87m 6y ago
I can’t speak for all of Europe, but in the U.K. we still have lots of business shut down, like swimming pools and cinemas (at least in Scotland). Masks are mandatory in supermarkets. Nurseries are returning next week. We have just enforced quarantine if you return from Spain and it’s islands due to a spike there. We are also doing local lockdowns in certain cities due to. So it has died down, but that’s due to the measures we have enforced. The fact that localised spikes are happening I think proves that it’s not “run its course”.
- iso1631 6y ago
  In the UK mask adherance in supermarkets is spotty at best, but when I say "died down" that's because we've been following social distancing measures. The feeling I get is that the public However high density mass transit in cities is still empty on the most part (there's always exceptions) - most "knowledge workers" (the ones that cram into cities on overcrowded peak trains every day) are remaining at home. Those working in factories, warehouses and shops tend to drive there, so there's less opportunity to spread. Johnson is trying to get people back to offices to save share prices of Starbucks and Pret. I get the feeling it's that, combined with fewer people out at pubs, that's keeping it at bay. We've expected to see increases ever since the VE Day conga lines, the Bournemouth Beaches, the BLM protests, and the pubs reopening, and on the whole we haven't seen it. I certainly don't think it's run it's course, but aside from local outbreaks which seem linked to poor factory conditions (the meat packing industry especially seems vulnerable), Leicester sweat shops) it does seem to be rumbling on without the exponential growth we saw in March.

xiphias2 6y ago

In summertime many people can go to their vacation homes with gardens far from the cities, and work remotely, so it's much harder to keep distance in the cold winter. I expect the winter being worse for the countries that weren't hit that hard in the summer.