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How is your argument different from the people claiming that Chinese medicine cures covid-19? We don't have any proof that it doesn't, but 96% of covid-19 patie
by hkai 6y ago
How is your argument different from the people claiming that Chinese medicine cures covid-19? We don't have any proof that it doesn't, but 96% of covid-19 patients in Wuhan received it and they were cured! Yay!
- credit_guy 6y agoI don't know much about Chinese medicine or about the claim that it may cure Covid19, so I can't comment on this. If you are alluding however that I'm committing the base rate fallacy, then I'm not. My argument is not statistical in nature. My argument is this: I know more about my body than the FDA. The FDA makes decisions that affects hundreds of millions of people and cannot know how each will respond to a drug (like aspirin). I however know how my body responds to aspirin because I have taken it and I know I tolerate it well. So, although both the FDA and I are making a risk-reward analysis, my problem is much more narrow and I have a lot more information about it. I do not need to employ double-blind clinical trials or know anything about t-statistics and p-values. If I were to start recommending aspirin to HN readers, then I'd start becoming a bit like the FDA, and I would need to resort to statistical arguments. But I'm not recommending aspirin to anyone. I'm just showing people the way I'm carrying my personal risk-reward analysis. This could be useful.