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Apple moving away, AMD kick in, ARM taking dominance. I guess we are about to witness the fall (may be death) of another titan.

Zenst 6y ago
For me the first sign will be Intel going thru their patent pool and seeing who they can sue.
- mappu 6y ago
  "Intel fires warning shots at Microsoft, claims x86 emulation is a patent minefield" (2017) https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/06/intel-fires-warning-shots-at-microsoft-claims-x86-emulation-is-a-patent-minefield/ https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/06/intel...
  - sjwright 6y ago
    Meanwhile, Apple is gearing up for extensive x86 emulation capability within macOS on Apple Silicon, so I guess the minefield isn't as dangerous as Intel implies. Or perhaps Apple is happily licensing patents? If so, that suggests that Rosetta 2 will be a limited-time feature just like Rosetta 1. Apple won't be interested in paying for patent licenses forever.
    - mappu 6y ago
      Patents have a 20-year lifespan so the common x86_32 patents must have already expired. As for x86_64, the patents would expire in either 2020 or 2023 depending on if you count from the first published documentation or from the first shipping CPU (IANAL). Of course that is only the baseline ISA (and SSE2). The future extensions (SSE3+/FMA/AVX and AES-NI/RDRAND/...) would not yet be patent-free but most software is really just compiled against the baseline. Apple managed to split x86_64 into a sub-architecture x86_64h for post-Haswell, but broadly speaking, nobody else has: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Changes/x86-64_micro-architecture_update https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Changes/x86-64_micro-architec...
      - sjwright 6y ago
        > As for x86_64, the patents would expire in either 2020 or 2023 Those patents (if any) would surely be held by its inventor, AMD, to which Apple has a healthy corporate relationship.
MangoCoffee 6y ago
Apple and Amazon moving away looking at ARM for client and server. AMD is winning on values but i don't think Intel will die. Intel still hold x86 license to make x86 chip. the worst outcome maybe Intel became fab less like AMD and just focus on design.
- valine 6y ago
  I don’t see Intel going fabless. There would be perceived national security implications for the US if Intel lost the ability to manufacture their own chips. I could see an Intel bail out if things keep going south, but that’s about it.
  - theevilsharpie 6y ago
    Intel going fabless doesn't mean that the fabs go away. They would most likely be spun off into their own company, similar to how AMD's fab spin-off created GlobalFoundries.
dreamcompiler 6y ago
Don't forget Spectre and Meltdown.

Zenst 6y ago

For me the first sign will be Intel going thru their patent pool and seeing who they can sue.

mappu 6y ago
"Intel fires warning shots at Microsoft, claims x86 emulation is a patent minefield" (2017) https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/06/intel-fires-warning-shots-at-microsoft-claims-x86-emulation-is-a-patent-minefield/ https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/06/intel...
- sjwright 6y ago
  Meanwhile, Apple is gearing up for extensive x86 emulation capability within macOS on Apple Silicon, so I guess the minefield isn't as dangerous as Intel implies. Or perhaps Apple is happily licensing patents? If so, that suggests that Rosetta 2 will be a limited-time feature just like Rosetta 1. Apple won't be interested in paying for patent licenses forever.
  - mappu 6y ago
    Patents have a 20-year lifespan so the common x86_32 patents must have already expired. As for x86_64, the patents would expire in either 2020 or 2023 depending on if you count from the first published documentation or from the first shipping CPU (IANAL). Of course that is only the baseline ISA (and SSE2). The future extensions (SSE3+/FMA/AVX and AES-NI/RDRAND/...) would not yet be patent-free but most software is really just compiled against the baseline. Apple managed to split x86_64 into a sub-architecture x86_64h for post-Haswell, but broadly speaking, nobody else has: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Changes/x86-64_micro-architecture_update https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Changes/x86-64_micro-architec...
    - sjwright 6y ago
      > As for x86_64, the patents would expire in either 2020 or 2023 Those patents (if any) would surely be held by its inventor, AMD, to which Apple has a healthy corporate relationship.

MangoCoffee 6y ago

Apple and Amazon moving away looking at ARM for client and server. AMD is winning on values but i don't think Intel will die. Intel still hold x86 license to make x86 chip. the worst outcome maybe Intel became fab less like AMD and just focus on design.

valine 6y ago
I don’t see Intel going fabless. There would be perceived national security implications for the US if Intel lost the ability to manufacture their own chips. I could see an Intel bail out if things keep going south, but that’s about it.
- theevilsharpie 6y ago
  Intel going fabless doesn't mean that the fabs go away. They would most likely be spun off into their own company, similar to how AMD's fab spin-off created GlobalFoundries.

dreamcompiler 6y ago

Don't forget Spectre and Meltdown.