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If we reopen schools, how many teachers and students will die in traffic accidents that could have been avoided by WFH? Should we WFH forever and wrap the kids

If we reopen schools, how many teachers and students will die in traffic accidents that could have been avoided by WFH? Should we WFH forever and wrap the kids in bubble wrap to avoid that trauma too? Also, where did you get those numbers from? I would have expected teachers to be at far higher risk of death than students.

jedberg 6y ago
> If we reopen schools, how many teachers and students will die in traffic accidents that could have been avoided by WFH? Many fewer, especially given that for students it usually involves walking or short drives through residential neighborhoods. > Should we WFH forever and wrap the kids in bubble wrap to avoid that trauma too? Obviously not. There is clearly a point where it makes sense to go back. But now isn't that time. > Also, where did you get those numbers from? I would have expected teachers to be at far higher risk of death than students. It's based on the CDC mortality data combined with the number of school kids. The teacher estimate is harder because we don't know exactly the age breakdown of the teachers, but it's based on the assumption that 30% of teachers are over 50 and putting the rest in the 20-30 risk group, which is probably too low. The actual number of teachers is lower just because there are only about 1 teacher per 30 students.
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
  Which is why your numbers look wrong, because if there's 1 teacher for every 30 students and also 1 teacher dying for every 30 student deaths, that implies the risk of death for the two groups is equivalent. My broader point, though, is that life requires calculated risk and tradeoffs. If the standard is "no child should ever experience a teacher dying from corona", and we WFH until that risk becomes <1/adult/year, then we're disregarding things like kids committing suicide due to isolation, health issues left untreated due to the pandemic, domestic violence etc. School is a literal lifeline for many children, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

jedberg 6y ago

> If we reopen schools, how many teachers and students will die in traffic accidents that could have been avoided by WFH? Many fewer, especially given that for students it usually involves walking or short drives through residential neighborhoods. > Should we WFH forever and wrap the kids in bubble wrap to avoid that trauma too? Obviously not. There is clearly a point where it makes sense to go back. But now isn't that time. > Also, where did you get those numbers from? I would have expected teachers to be at far higher risk of death than students. It's based on the CDC mortality data combined with the number of school kids. The teacher estimate is harder because we don't know exactly the age breakdown of the teachers, but it's based on the assumption that 30% of teachers are over 50 and putting the rest in the 20-30 risk group, which is probably too low. The actual number of teachers is lower just because there are only about 1 teacher per 30 students.

9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
Which is why your numbers look wrong, because if there's 1 teacher for every 30 students and also 1 teacher dying for every 30 student deaths, that implies the risk of death for the two groups is equivalent. My broader point, though, is that life requires calculated risk and tradeoffs. If the standard is "no child should ever experience a teacher dying from corona", and we WFH until that risk becomes <1/adult/year, then we're disregarding things like kids committing suicide due to isolation, health issues left untreated due to the pandemic, domestic violence etc. School is a literal lifeline for many children, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.