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I like this kind of technical technique break down in sports. It's interesting how you can break down a problem into a system like this and then focus on that s

I like this kind of technical technique break down in sports. It's interesting how you can break down a problem into a system like this and then focus on that system as a way to improve. It's similar to improving optimal outcomes in other systems, like driving more engagement in your app, improving uptime of your service, improving the speed at which your product flies off of shelves at the supermarket, improving your performance in a video game, or how optimal your shipping pipeline is from your manufacturing hub. It's just a very neat thing to do, figure out what your problem is, whatever it may be, in a way that you explain a path to improving outcomes.

legitster 6y ago
I find that it's almost impossible to appreciate and enjoy a sport until I start learning the technical pieces that determine decisions. Football is full of all of these random plays that make no sense. Until you learn things about how clock management works. Then they become very tense and exciting. The problem I have with baseball is that all of the minor strategic decisions are there, but you are talking about subtle changes that affect probability by a few percentage points. And that can take an entire series of games to see play out.
- darkerside 6y ago
  Soccer is similar in that there is a tremendous amount of "luck" involved. Only a couple of goals are scored in a typical match, so teams can play excellent soccer for 90 minutes and still lose because a ball broke the wrong way. I think what's fun about that is that it mimics business (and life) much more. You have limited control over a few key factors, luck plays a large role, but if you play smart, you can see things break your way over a long period of time.
  - ashtonbaker 6y ago
    And of course this is how e.g. the Premier League and other top soccer leagues are scored - so that the best team emerges over the long term rather than in a noisy single-elimination playoff system. Which makes underdog stories like the 2015-16 Leicter City season all the more unbelievable and magical [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Leicester_City_F.C._season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Leicester_City...
  - AceyMan 6y ago
    > but if you play smart, you can see things break your way over a long period of time Which brings to mind a great quip attributed to Gary Player (the multi Grand Slam winning golfer / peer to Palmer & Nicklaus) which goes, "I've found that the harder I practice, the luckier I get." And as anyone who knows golf knows, the game is rife with unknown unknowns and butterfly effect types of outcomes; but over time those nearly infinitesimal improvements move the deterministic needle in ways that change your score.
    - darkerside 6y ago
      Love this quote. Thanks for sharing it.
- nend 6y ago
  It takes way more than a series for it to even out, it's why they play 162 games. Even then it's not enough. A completely average team could win anywhere from 68-92 games, the difference between a bottom dweller and a division winner. There's a lot of luck involved.
  - gabagool 6y ago
    Yup. As Tommy Lasorda famously said, "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are, you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." Of course, the Mets went 40-120 in '62. I'm fairly certain the Orioles didn't win a third of their games for the last couple of seasons either. But it's not as nice to say you're going to win one-fourth of your games.
    - sokoloff 6y ago
      Amusingly, the Orioles won exactly 1/3 of their games last year (and fewer than that in 2018). https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/index.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/index.shtml
    - gowld 6y ago
      He didn't says they were equal thirds :-)
dfxm12 6y ago
Hopefully, if a fan understands this, they'll get less angry when their team's clean up batter takes a close strike 3 instead of swinging at a pitch that has a high chance of ending up as a double play. It's just a very neat thing to do, figure out what your problem is, whatever it may be, in a way that you explain a path to improving outcomes. You just want to make sure that a path to improving in one thing doesn't decrease your performance elsewhere, ala the project management triangle (which is just one example).

legitster 6y ago

I find that it's almost impossible to appreciate and enjoy a sport until I start learning the technical pieces that determine decisions. Football is full of all of these random plays that make no sense. Until you learn things about how clock management works. Then they become very tense and exciting. The problem I have with baseball is that all of the minor strategic decisions are there, but you are talking about subtle changes that affect probability by a few percentage points. And that can take an entire series of games to see play out.

darkerside 6y ago
Soccer is similar in that there is a tremendous amount of "luck" involved. Only a couple of goals are scored in a typical match, so teams can play excellent soccer for 90 minutes and still lose because a ball broke the wrong way. I think what's fun about that is that it mimics business (and life) much more. You have limited control over a few key factors, luck plays a large role, but if you play smart, you can see things break your way over a long period of time.
- ashtonbaker 6y ago
  And of course this is how e.g. the Premier League and other top soccer leagues are scored - so that the best team emerges over the long term rather than in a noisy single-elimination playoff system. Which makes underdog stories like the 2015-16 Leicter City season all the more unbelievable and magical [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Leicester_City_F.C._season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Leicester_City...
- AceyMan 6y ago
  > but if you play smart, you can see things break your way over a long period of time Which brings to mind a great quip attributed to Gary Player (the multi Grand Slam winning golfer / peer to Palmer & Nicklaus) which goes, "I've found that the harder I practice, the luckier I get." And as anyone who knows golf knows, the game is rife with unknown unknowns and butterfly effect types of outcomes; but over time those nearly infinitesimal improvements move the deterministic needle in ways that change your score.
  - darkerside 6y ago
    Love this quote. Thanks for sharing it.
nend 6y ago
It takes way more than a series for it to even out, it's why they play 162 games. Even then it's not enough. A completely average team could win anywhere from 68-92 games, the difference between a bottom dweller and a division winner. There's a lot of luck involved.
- gabagool 6y ago
  Yup. As Tommy Lasorda famously said, "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are, you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." Of course, the Mets went 40-120 in '62. I'm fairly certain the Orioles didn't win a third of their games for the last couple of seasons either. But it's not as nice to say you're going to win one-fourth of your games.
  - sokoloff 6y ago
    Amusingly, the Orioles won exactly 1/3 of their games last year (and fewer than that in 2018). https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/index.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/index.shtml
  - gowld 6y ago
    He didn't says they were equal thirds :-)

dfxm12 6y ago

Hopefully, if a fan understands this, they'll get less angry when their team's clean up batter takes a close strike 3 instead of swinging at a pitch that has a high chance of ending up as a double play. It's just a very neat thing to do, figure out what your problem is, whatever it may be, in a way that you explain a path to improving outcomes. You just want to make sure that a path to improving in one thing doesn't decrease your performance elsewhere, ala the project management triangle (which is just one example).