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In San Francisco the guidance has been “you idiots keep having social gatherings, this is why we can’t let you go shopping.” But to me it seems absolutely insan

In San Francisco the guidance has been “you idiots keep having social gatherings, this is why we can’t let you go shopping.” But to me it seems absolutely insane to spend our “exposure budget” on shopping, or on a return to the office. There are perfectly good substitutes for these things. Not so for friends.

draebek 6y ago
I like the phrase "exposure budget", I hope you don't mind if I steal it. I've been thinking of things the same way, though my #1 "budgetary priority" right now is probably "open schools" over everything else, including seeing friends—and I say that as someone with zero children.
- bargl 6y ago
  Same I haven't seen that before and I hope the op is stealing this. I'd like to see more people thinking in this way.
  - closeparen 6y ago
    Thanks! I suspect that public health authorities wouldn't like this, as they do not want people to feel that they can "spend" at all unless it's essential. But that doesn't seem like something we can actually sustain until the vaccine, so I have found the concept helpful.
- jedberg 6y ago
  Even child psychologists have reversed their stance on returning to school. They've realized that the trauma of having a teacher die is worse than not socializing for a few more months. At the current virus levels, it is expected that at least two teachers and 60 students will die every day in the USA if we reopen schools. That is of course out of hundreds of thousands of teachers and millions of students, but if it's your teacher or your friend, it doesn't really matter how many millions didn't die that day, does it?
  - closeparen 6y ago
    >a few more months People keep saying "a few more months." What is the evidence for this? We are not going to have a vaccine developed, tested, and deployed to 300 million people in a few months. Nor are we going to grow Asia-level mask compliance, quarantine enforcement, and contact tracing within the Trump presidency. Now that it's a tribal issue, it probably can't be done at all. It really seems like we're in this for a few years.
    - jedberg 6y ago
      I was being optimistic. Although during the 1918 pandemic, after the third wave, mask compliance went way up as people finally realized the thing was real and was deadly. So maybe it'll get better. Also, at least right where I live in Santa Clara county, we're almost at the point of reopening again. I see 99.9%+ mask compliance here, and the numbers are trending down (albeit slowly). I suspect based on the Governor's new policies that my kids will be back in school before Thanksgiving, until things get bad again and the have to leave again.
  - bargl 6y ago
    Picking out that you said "current virus levels" I completely agree. There is no timeframe for getting the virus levels under wraps. It's a matter of determining what the risk is. I'd put it like this for myself, if the risk to the students and teachers is MORE than some already known risk factors we have out there (driving) then let's not do it. If the risk to students and teachers is similar or less than some already known risk factors then we can consider opening. I'd also like to see a plan of something like (not exactly this I'm no expert). If someone from a class is confirmed with COVIDthe whole class closes for 2 weeks (goes remote). If there are 3 cases at the school they close for 2 weeks. If there are 3 schools in the district and there's less than XYZ miles then the district closes for 2 weeks. This is a rough idea but we can easily handle 2-4 weeks off at a time given a case of COVID. So if we're opening lets be cautious and imitate other countries who have done well.
    - jedberg 6y ago

draebek 6y ago

I like the phrase "exposure budget", I hope you don't mind if I steal it. I've been thinking of things the same way, though my #1 "budgetary priority" right now is probably "open schools" over everything else, including seeing friends—and I say that as someone with zero children.

bargl 6y ago
Same I haven't seen that before and I hope the op is stealing this. I'd like to see more people thinking in this way.
- closeparen 6y ago
  Thanks! I suspect that public health authorities wouldn't like this, as they do not want people to feel that they can "spend" at all unless it's essential. But that doesn't seem like something we can actually sustain until the vaccine, so I have found the concept helpful.
jedberg 6y ago
Even child psychologists have reversed their stance on returning to school. They've realized that the trauma of having a teacher die is worse than not socializing for a few more months. At the current virus levels, it is expected that at least two teachers and 60 students will die every day in the USA if we reopen schools. That is of course out of hundreds of thousands of teachers and millions of students, but if it's your teacher or your friend, it doesn't really matter how many millions didn't die that day, does it?
- closeparen 6y ago
  >a few more months People keep saying "a few more months." What is the evidence for this? We are not going to have a vaccine developed, tested, and deployed to 300 million people in a few months. Nor are we going to grow Asia-level mask compliance, quarantine enforcement, and contact tracing within the Trump presidency. Now that it's a tribal issue, it probably can't be done at all. It really seems like we're in this for a few years.
  - jedberg 6y ago
    I was being optimistic. Although during the 1918 pandemic, after the third wave, mask compliance went way up as people finally realized the thing was real and was deadly. So maybe it'll get better. Also, at least right where I live in Santa Clara county, we're almost at the point of reopening again. I see 99.9%+ mask compliance here, and the numbers are trending down (albeit slowly). I suspect based on the Governor's new policies that my kids will be back in school before Thanksgiving, until things get bad again and the have to leave again.
- bargl 6y ago
  Picking out that you said "current virus levels" I completely agree. There is no timeframe for getting the virus levels under wraps. It's a matter of determining what the risk is. I'd put it like this for myself, if the risk to the students and teachers is MORE than some already known risk factors we have out there (driving) then let's not do it. If the risk to students and teachers is similar or less than some already known risk factors then we can consider opening. I'd also like to see a plan of something like (not exactly this I'm no expert). If someone from a class is confirmed with COVIDthe whole class closes for 2 weeks (goes remote). If there are 3 cases at the school they close for 2 weeks. If there are 3 schools in the district and there's less than XYZ miles then the district closes for 2 weeks. This is a rough idea but we can easily handle 2-4 weeks off at a time given a case of COVID. So if we're opening lets be cautious and imitate other countries who have done well.
  - jedberg 6y ago