See sibling comment. I agree there is a lot of survivorship bias but the reality is more like the first coin flip has a 25% chance and all the subsequent ones a

See sibling comment. I agree there is a lot of survivorship bias but the reality is more like the first coin flip has a 25% chance and all the subsequent ones are closer to like 80-90% because there are a lot of positive feedback mechanisms you can take advantage of to maximize early career advantages