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Did I miss something or are low adoption rates and bluetooth issues the only indicators that decentralized tracking has failed, as pointed out in the article?

Did I miss something or are low adoption rates and bluetooth issues the only indicators that decentralized tracking has failed, as pointed out in the article? The lack of statistics about success/failure otherwise seems to imply more of a "we don't know for sure"?

DangitBobby 6y ago
Specifically, it seems that adoption rates are so low as to render the application nearly useless.
- makomk 6y ago
  Yeah, the overall conclusion is that smartphone contact tracing probably isn't working, but we can't know for sure because the megacorps who designed it did so in such a way that makes it almost impossible to measure if it's actually working. The only app we know has definitely been ineffective is Australia's centralized solution, in large part because they do actually have the ability to collect statistics on its effectiveness. We do also know that Germany's app was just outright failing to send alerts to users of many common, popular devices due to limitations on background tasks: https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-coronavirus-tracing-app-criticized-over-warning-failures/a-54305099 https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-coronavirus-tracing-app-criti... Obviously there's no way to know exactly how many people should've been sent a warning and weren't either, by design.
  - zepto 6y ago
    It’s trivial to tell whether it’s working with some ordinary surveys and research. No “megacorps” have done anything to make it impossible.
- anonytrary 6y ago
  It's just like mask usage -- nearly useless unless a critical number of people are wearing them.
  - dehrmann 6y ago
    Seeing that even the Bay Area, where you'd expect people to be relatively compliant with masks, not attending gatherings, and social distancing, is seeing a case surge, I'm not convinced than anything non-essential indoors will reopen, and masks aren't making a big enough difference to change that. That said, I've seen very little data about where people are getting it (outside of medical settings, meat processors, and prisons), and you'd think this would be pretty important to managing the spread.

DangitBobby 6y ago

Specifically, it seems that adoption rates are so low as to render the application nearly useless.

makomk 6y ago
Yeah, the overall conclusion is that smartphone contact tracing probably isn't working, but we can't know for sure because the megacorps who designed it did so in such a way that makes it almost impossible to measure if it's actually working. The only app we know has definitely been ineffective is Australia's centralized solution, in large part because they do actually have the ability to collect statistics on its effectiveness. We do also know that Germany's app was just outright failing to send alerts to users of many common, popular devices due to limitations on background tasks: https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-coronavirus-tracing-app-criticized-over-warning-failures/a-54305099 https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-coronavirus-tracing-app-criti... Obviously there's no way to know exactly how many people should've been sent a warning and weren't either, by design.
- zepto 6y ago
  It’s trivial to tell whether it’s working with some ordinary surveys and research. No “megacorps” have done anything to make it impossible.
anonytrary 6y ago
It's just like mask usage -- nearly useless unless a critical number of people are wearing them.
- dehrmann 6y ago
  Seeing that even the Bay Area, where you'd expect people to be relatively compliant with masks, not attending gatherings, and social distancing, is seeing a case surge, I'm not convinced than anything non-essential indoors will reopen, and masks aren't making a big enough difference to change that. That said, I've seen very little data about where people are getting it (outside of medical settings, meat processors, and prisons), and you'd think this would be pretty important to managing the spread.