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If you are in the aviation industry and building planes - you compete with other means of transportation; e.g., cars, trains, Ubers etc. It is a competitive mar
by looping__lui 6y ago
If you are in the aviation industry and building planes - you compete with other means of transportation; e.g., cars, trains, Ubers etc. It is a competitive market with relatively clear revenue expectations per person-miles (e.g., private helicopters potentially being an upper boundary). So, the R side of the equation is pretty known... Helicopter taxi services didn’t quite take off and I guess it is because they were kind a above the per person-mile price people were willing to pay...
You will also be in one of the most heavily regulated industries and push for a product that doesn’t even yet know its regulations...
You can’t compare it to the military because - well, they don’t have to certify the same way civil aviation has to. They can essentially say “it’s good enough”. And they aren’t bearing the “R” side risk of the investment for being expose a free market. Military contractors aren’t “paid by the price of a bomb dropped” in a competitive market.
The R is limited and known. We know helicopter taxi services don’t work. The I is a complete unknown and potentially magnitudes higher than expected. Why would I invest in this market that has historically had a bad track record for innovation?
E.g., you want an airbag in your car and better infotainment? Price for the car goes up from 50k to 250k. In the aviation industry, a Tesla would probably be closer to 500k-750k given all the innovation it has (and would need aviation certification) compared to a 50k “regular car”.
If you think this would not “make you think twice” - ok.