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I think we have different mindsets here: !every! company in aviation, the automotive or transportation industry is worried about the “I” for the R&D. If there
by looping__lui 6y ago
I think we have different mindsets here: !every! company in aviation, the automotive or transportation industry is worried about the “I” for the R&D.
If there is a factor 10 whatever uncertainty in this equation - you are essentially just gambling like an Options-Day-Trader on Reddit. I understand that investors see “the hockeystick” unlimited revenue upside and justify everything around that.
But I personally would not want to so business in the most over-regulated, slow-growing and low-margin industry with a “factor 10 investment uncertainty”; that uncertainty btw renders your investment null, void and lost if your plane doesn’t get certified. And you don’t even have certification guidelines.
- renewiltord 6y agoAre you in the aviation industry? I am not. So know that what I'm saying is based on low-grade near-zero prior knowledge. Would love to know the certainty on your knowledge.
- looping__lui 6y agoI think what matters more is the line of my argumentation. If I was a long-standing aviation industry veteran I would probably not be the source of great innovation and thus be blind for radical disruptions. Automotive and space disruptors had little to no prior knowledge but asked the right questions and had the right arguments... My line or argumentation does not require much aviation expertise: a heavily regulated market with many uncertainties that put the chance of your investment succeeding at a low percentage, require ALL the investment be made before you can test it on the market is a big red flag; even more when the industry is known for very high costs in the innovation space and you are “disrupting” it; add to that that the return on investments have historically been horrible -e.g., google Cessna, Piper, Beechcraft and a dozen other big players that went bust or were very close to it...
- renewiltord 6y agoYour arguments can be independently evaluated. Your claim to facts are questionable if they aren't from knowledge. I'll take it that you aren't in the industry and have priors similar to mine on your knowledge. Thanks for the discussion.
- looping__lui 6y agoI have been flying planes for 20 years. I own a plane. I worked for the largest commercial airline maintenance company in my country.