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Even with the disclaimer that the variables are all probably correlated, I think the author is vastly vastly underestimating how strongly correlated these varia
by vikramkr 6y ago
Even with the disclaimer that the variables are all probably correlated, I think the author is vastly vastly underestimating how strongly correlated these variables are going to be. Raw mental power and creativity + long-term planning and vision-making have a lot of overlap. Energy and persistence could basically be the same thing. Risk and pain tolerance is already captured by energy, persistence, ambition. These seem to boil down to about 2 variables. Ambition to do big things, capability (intellectual/physical/creative) to do big things. It's also missing a huge variable (which is part of capability) in resource availability. Doesn't matter how many of those characteristics you have if you're born in a war torn region in syria and don't have the opportunity to get out. You could still successfully pull yourself out of the situation and create a better life for yourself, which could be more difficult than building a rocket to go to mars, but the point is you won't be building the rocket, you'll be using your time figuring out how to escape.
With those 2-3 aspects, I think you'll find that there are a few thousand or tens of thousands of people at that level, which lines up with what we see. There's more than one billionaire (and people like Einstein revolutionized plenty without ending up on Forbes richest list). Throw in a bit of pure luck for good measure (really helps to have a tech bubble going full speed at the start of your career to get you the capital you need for later life, and on the flip side I'm sure SpaceX wasn't any easier to run when the 3rd rocket launch failed because of a really dumb little error that was nearly enough to destroy the company).
- aiscapehumanity 6y agoIt helps to have all of that along with a head start in capital. Most people don't even have any head-start capital to get themselves to a position where they could sustain a niche startup that could build into another empire.
- guzey 6y agoI think the points you make are reasonable and it comes down to our feeling of how much exactly of overlap there is + what percentile exactly are we talking about here (what if to build SpaceX + Tesla one needed to be in 99.9% percentile of one of the variables?) + the number of such traits and how much they can compensate each other.
- guzey 6y ago>Energy and persistence could basically be the same thing This in particular I think are very different things. You can start a lot of things and be always doing something yet give up as soon as any difficulties appear. This is high energy, low persistence.