Yeah, the only thing it proves is that when a scientist says "assume X" to another scientist the common understanding is that it means "in a situation where it

Yeah, the only thing it proves is that when a scientist says "assume X" to another scientist the common understanding is that it means "in a situation where it is given that X is true, no matter how ridiculous that might be in real life." As for more reasons why this is bullshit, see the gambler's fallacy and the Monty Hall problem – intuition is often terrible at arriving at the right prediction.