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Some of the studies now are showing benefits of herd immunity with as little as 30% of the locals having had it. Young healthy people who have extremely low ri

Some of the studies now are showing benefits of herd immunity with as little as 30% of the locals having had it. Young healthy people who have extremely low risk can provide herd immunity for at risk populations so they don't die. But let's imagine none of that's true. Can you talk about how diseases of despair and deaths indirectly caused by economic troubles play into your analysis? How long do you believe the benefits of lockdowns will outweigh the costs? Do you believe the answer is forever?

snowwrestler 6y ago
Young people do not have extremely low risk: "Close to one third of young adults are medically vulnerable to severe COVID-19 illness." https://www.jahonline.org/article/S1054-139X(20)30338-4/fulltext https://www.jahonline.org/article/S1054-139X(20)30338-4/full... Even if they did, during uncontrolled spread there is no way to limit infections to a specific subset of the population. The U.S. has not yet locked down. If it had done so earlier this year, we would see much lower incidences of COVID-19 today--and a rebounding economy--as we see across much of Asia and Europe. Our nationally undisciplined approach has extended the impact of the pandemic far longer than it should have. Continued application of this approach will continue to extend the impact on the U.S. people and economy. Lockdowns pay off very quickly if they are taken seriously; most people with COVID-19 stop being infectious within 14 days of the onset of symptoms.
- Consultant32452 6y ago
  I'm not interested or even particularly disagreeing with any of your comments on the past. People with high risk can and already are behaving differently than people with low risk. That's why the death count is steadily dropping even while the case count is increasing, because young people are returning to normal behaviors while at risk people are being more careful. In a world with wide spread virus in India, Brazil, the United States, Russia and Mexico it's simply not going away any time soon. Do you believe that these countries can successfully be quarantined from the rest of the world for the next year? What about 3 years? Or is it your position that all of these countries have the political and infrastructure capability of doing complete lockdowns?

snowwrestler 6y ago

Young people do not have extremely low risk: "Close to one third of young adults are medically vulnerable to severe COVID-19 illness." https://www.jahonline.org/article/S1054-139X(20)30338-4/fulltext https://www.jahonline.org/article/S1054-139X(20)30338-4/full... Even if they did, during uncontrolled spread there is no way to limit infections to a specific subset of the population. The U.S. has not yet locked down. If it had done so earlier this year, we would see much lower incidences of COVID-19 today--and a rebounding economy--as we see across much of Asia and Europe. Our nationally undisciplined approach has extended the impact of the pandemic far longer than it should have. Continued application of this approach will continue to extend the impact on the U.S. people and economy. Lockdowns pay off very quickly if they are taken seriously; most people with COVID-19 stop being infectious within 14 days of the onset of symptoms.

Consultant32452 6y ago
I'm not interested or even particularly disagreeing with any of your comments on the past. People with high risk can and already are behaving differently than people with low risk. That's why the death count is steadily dropping even while the case count is increasing, because young people are returning to normal behaviors while at risk people are being more careful. In a world with wide spread virus in India, Brazil, the United States, Russia and Mexico it's simply not going away any time soon. Do you believe that these countries can successfully be quarantined from the rest of the world for the next year? What about 3 years? Or is it your position that all of these countries have the political and infrastructure capability of doing complete lockdowns?