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> Could anyone have honestly foreseen the pandemic and its ensuing upheavals? Absolutely. Previous WHO classification has a "Phase 4: Sustained community-level
by acituan 6y ago
> Could anyone have honestly foreseen the pandemic and its ensuing upheavals?
Absolutely. Previous WHO classification has a "Phase 4: Sustained community-level outbreaks -> Medium to high probability of pandemic" designation, which has a roughly once-a-decade frequency historically. Compared to multi-quarter, multi-year scale of real estate planning, 10 years is not infinite long term. Of course it is so in comparison to quarterly earnings, share prices, average tenure of a fund manager, a CEO and so forth, so it doesn't get priced in or gets bundled with other catastrophes.
- perfmode 6y agoInteresting. Have any people/groups/organizations been credited as having made prescient, non-trivial bets anticipating this pandemic?
- shortstuffsushi 6y agoWell, the Wimbledon at least had insurance for just such an occasion - https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/04/09/report-wimbledons-organizers-set-for-a-141-million-payout-after-taking-out-pandemic-insurance https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/04/09/report-w...
- umanwizard 6y agoThis pandemic might not be historically unprecedented, but the scale of the reaction to it (most office workers staying home for several months) certainly is.