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Intel is a company that's living on it's distribution legacy. Ask yourself - why do regular people still buy Intel PCs? Because they are easy to buy. A great n

Intel is a company that's living on it's distribution legacy. Ask yourself - why do regular people still buy Intel PCs? Because they are easy to buy. A great non Intel hardware and software laptop+aio by AMD or someone else would be a mortal wound on $INTC.

chrisseaton 6y ago
> Ask yourself - why do regular people still buy Intel PCs? Regular people don’t buy PCs at all and haven’t for a couple of decades.
- smabie 6y ago
  Regular people didn't but PCs in 2000 that's just not true. I think most consumers buy laptops nowadays, but that shift started happening around 2005ish, not 2000.
  - chrisseaton 6y ago
    > Regular people didn't but PCs in 2000 that's just not true. Sorry I've got no idea what this means.
    - AnthonyMouse 6y ago
      You said regular people haven't bought PCs for a couple of decades. A couple of decades ago PCs were still too expensive for regular people to buy, they were mostly owned by businesses and the upper middle class. Sales volume peaked somewhere in the mid 2000s. Since then the PC ownership rate hasn't really declined (it's still ~75%), but people haven't bought as many PCs because the rate of performance improvement has slowed so people haven't had as much of a need to replace their existing PCs. I think the phone makers are trying to avoid that fate now by discontinuing software updates for older phones or making it expensive to replace failed batteries, but eventually one of them is going to defect and offer a phone with in-kernel drivers and a replaceable battery and then win half the market when customers get wise to not having to lay out hundreds of dollars every three years instead of every five or ten.
      - chrisseaton 6y ago
        75% of people own a PC?! Sorry I can’t agree with that. I can’t remember the last time I saw a PC in someone’s house. Maybe ten years ago or more. People have laptops and macs. And conversely I don’t know anyone who didn’t own a PC in 2000. 2000 was the very height of the dotcom boom. The dotcom boom wasn’t fuelled by a tiny upper middle class - it was about everyone suddenly being online.
        wmf 6y ago
        For the purpose of this thread, laptops and Macs are Intel PCs.
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        >A couple of decades ago PCs were still too expensive for regular people to buy, they were mostly owned by businesses and the upper middle class. This sounded wrong to me, but in the interests of not just making a kneejerk response, I googled and found total global sales from 1997-2000 estimated at ~400 million PCs[1] and also a claim[2] that at that time about 60 percent of US households had at least one personal computer. Also, since the 80s, affordable computers were available, and sold in the millions,[3] so I don't think it's valid to say the reason they were mostly owned by businesses and the upper middle class at that point was because they were too expensive. It was more that people in the upper middle class used computers at work and could relate to why they were the future, and that future included them/their children, so they were likely to see value in a new computer rather than something else. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_share_of_personal_computer_vendors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_share_of_personal_compu... [2]https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2004/DianeEnnefils.shtml https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2004/DianeEnnefils.shtml [3]By 1985, the Commodore 64 was selling for <$150, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodore_64 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodore_64
arcticbull 6y ago
There are some now by AMD, of course, with the new 4900HS chips. Linus was fawning all over the Asus ROG Zephyrus G14 with the 4900HS. Then, we'll see Apple's ARM entries. I don't know that these are mortal wounds but they are certainly the thin edge. 4900HS is 25% faster than the i9-9880HK (Intel's fastest contender) and uses much less power.
- slezyr 6y ago
  There is a scandal around the Asus ROG Zephyrus G14. AMD version of it has sealed vents with plastic covers. https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/1187443-asus-caught-being-malicious-zephyrus-g15-has-fan-vents-blocked-by-black-paper-reason-unknown/ https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/1187443-asus-caught-bei...
  - karavelov 6y ago
    The scandal was about G15, G14 is fine as far as I heard.
billyhoffman 6y ago
This is a 2000s view of Intel that is not accurate in 2020. Look at the numbers. - 7% growth for consumer (the “Intel PCs” you mention) - 43% growth for data centers - 70%+ growth in nonvolatile storage (SSDs)... much of which goes into high end servers in data centers Will there be more data centers And cloud offerings in 3 years, or less? Many More! Will there be more or less PC sales in 3 years. For Intel it’s less or the same (Apple is 8-10% of the market that is disappearing and PC growth is flat to slightly up. So 3 years out it will be roughly the same) Also keep in mind the margin on Xeons vs The laptop chips That go in a $599 plastic Dell. Intel as a “PC” company is dying. Intel as a data center provider (SSDs and heavy processors) is ascendant
- lend000 6y ago
  A single socket AMD threadripper 3995WX (the "ECC" version just released) is likely going to destroy a dual socket Xeon 8275+ (the ones used for the Amazon C5 metal instance) in most benchmarks like the 3990X did, while running at roughly the same power and a fraction of the price. Once AMD convinces cloud providers that its ECC works just as well as Intel's, there's really nothing holding AMD back from taking a huge chunk of the server market.
  - fomine3 6y ago
    Threadripper is priced for workstation like Core XE that priced usually way cheaper than for server even though actual chip is same. Anyway EPYC is performs far better than Xeon in same price.
- grizzles 6y ago
  Growth is flat. For example, vs their 2016 Q3 results they've had 8 down quarters in the Client Computing Group aka consumer. They'll have the data centres for awhile but when you only have a few customers buying huge volume they will eventually use their buying power to shrink your margins down to nothing. Silicon is due to become a commodity anyway within a decade because of the end of Moore's law. These two segments account for ~75% of $INTCs revenue today.
- heisenbit 6y ago
AgloeDreams 6y ago
I honestly think Apple will deliver this later this year with the new Air. There's a reason why iPads are so well liked and are so incredibly fast.

chrisseaton 6y ago

> Ask yourself - why do regular people still buy Intel PCs? Regular people don’t buy PCs at all and haven’t for a couple of decades.

smabie 6y ago
Regular people didn't but PCs in 2000 that's just not true. I think most consumers buy laptops nowadays, but that shift started happening around 2005ish, not 2000.
- chrisseaton 6y ago
  > Regular people didn't but PCs in 2000 that's just not true. Sorry I've got no idea what this means.
  - AnthonyMouse 6y ago
    You said regular people haven't bought PCs for a couple of decades. A couple of decades ago PCs were still too expensive for regular people to buy, they were mostly owned by businesses and the upper middle class. Sales volume peaked somewhere in the mid 2000s. Since then the PC ownership rate hasn't really declined (it's still ~75%), but people haven't bought as many PCs because the rate of performance improvement has slowed so people haven't had as much of a need to replace their existing PCs. I think the phone makers are trying to avoid that fate now by discontinuing software updates for older phones or making it expensive to replace failed batteries, but eventually one of them is going to defect and offer a phone with in-kernel drivers and a replaceable battery and then win half the market when customers get wise to not having to lay out hundreds of dollars every three years instead of every five or ten.
    - chrisseaton 6y ago
      75% of people own a PC?! Sorry I can’t agree with that. I can’t remember the last time I saw a PC in someone’s house. Maybe ten years ago or more. People have laptops and macs. And conversely I don’t know anyone who didn’t own a PC in 2000. 2000 was the very height of the dotcom boom. The dotcom boom wasn’t fuelled by a tiny upper middle class - it was about everyone suddenly being online.
      - wmf 6y ago
        For the purpose of this thread, laptops and Macs are Intel PCs.
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      >A couple of decades ago PCs were still too expensive for regular people to buy, they were mostly owned by businesses and the upper middle class. This sounded wrong to me, but in the interests of not just making a kneejerk response, I googled and found total global sales from 1997-2000 estimated at ~400 million PCs[1] and also a claim[2] that at that time about 60 percent of US households had at least one personal computer. Also, since the 80s, affordable computers were available, and sold in the millions,[3] so I don't think it's valid to say the reason they were mostly owned by businesses and the upper middle class at that point was because they were too expensive. It was more that people in the upper middle class used computers at work and could relate to why they were the future, and that future included them/their children, so they were likely to see value in a new computer rather than something else. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_share_of_personal_computer_vendors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_share_of_personal_compu... [2]https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2004/DianeEnnefils.shtml https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2004/DianeEnnefils.shtml [3]By 1985, the Commodore 64 was selling for <$150, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodore_64 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodore_64

arcticbull 6y ago

There are some now by AMD, of course, with the new 4900HS chips. Linus was fawning all over the Asus ROG Zephyrus G14 with the 4900HS. Then, we'll see Apple's ARM entries. I don't know that these are mortal wounds but they are certainly the thin edge. 4900HS is 25% faster than the i9-9880HK (Intel's fastest contender) and uses much less power.

slezyr 6y ago
There is a scandal around the Asus ROG Zephyrus G14. AMD version of it has sealed vents with plastic covers. https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/1187443-asus-caught-being-malicious-zephyrus-g15-has-fan-vents-blocked-by-black-paper-reason-unknown/ https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/1187443-asus-caught-bei...
- karavelov 6y ago
  The scandal was about G15, G14 is fine as far as I heard.

billyhoffman 6y ago

This is a 2000s view of Intel that is not accurate in 2020. Look at the numbers. - 7% growth for consumer (the “Intel PCs” you mention) - 43% growth for data centers - 70%+ growth in nonvolatile storage (SSDs)... much of which goes into high end servers in data centers Will there be more data centers And cloud offerings in 3 years, or less? Many More! Will there be more or less PC sales in 3 years. For Intel it’s less or the same (Apple is 8-10% of the market that is disappearing and PC growth is flat to slightly up. So 3 years out it will be roughly the same) Also keep in mind the margin on Xeons vs The laptop chips That go in a $599 plastic Dell. Intel as a “PC” company is dying. Intel as a data center provider (SSDs and heavy processors) is ascendant

lend000 6y ago
A single socket AMD threadripper 3995WX (the "ECC" version just released) is likely going to destroy a dual socket Xeon 8275+ (the ones used for the Amazon C5 metal instance) in most benchmarks like the 3990X did, while running at roughly the same power and a fraction of the price. Once AMD convinces cloud providers that its ECC works just as well as Intel's, there's really nothing holding AMD back from taking a huge chunk of the server market.
- fomine3 6y ago
  Threadripper is priced for workstation like Core XE that priced usually way cheaper than for server even though actual chip is same. Anyway EPYC is performs far better than Xeon in same price.
grizzles 6y ago
Growth is flat. For example, vs their 2016 Q3 results they've had 8 down quarters in the Client Computing Group aka consumer. They'll have the data centres for awhile but when you only have a few customers buying huge volume they will eventually use their buying power to shrink your margins down to nothing. Silicon is due to become a commodity anyway within a decade because of the end of Moore's law. These two segments account for ~75% of $INTCs revenue today.
heisenbit 6y ago

AgloeDreams 6y ago

I honestly think Apple will deliver this later this year with the new Air. There's a reason why iPads are so well liked and are so incredibly fast.