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With respect, I see where you are coming from, but would argue it isn't necessarily the right read, either in terms of banks, or in terms of Clojure, though the
by jonahbenton 6y ago
With respect, I see where you are coming from, but would argue it isn't necessarily the right read, either in terms of banks, or in terms of Clojure, though there is nuance.
Banks are systemic actors in the financial system. They have privileges granted only to them, requirements that only they have to meet. It is HARD to build and operate a bank, whether in the US or in another country.
From a "fragility" perspective- there are a lot of definitions of fragility, but when looking at attributes like- may fail at any time; may lose customer assets; may take on inappropriate risks given their systemic position; have negative systemic impact on larger financial system operations- whatever attributes you think of, the amount of energy that goes into oversight around those attributes is significantly larger for banks than any other "systemic" industry (real estate, health, whatever).
The number of health oversight agencies in the US is, like, 5. The number of financial oversight agencies is in the dozens, just at the federal level. (This is why in the US you sue for medical malpractice but not financial malpractice, and why there is government backed financial insurance of various kinds and much less health insurance. You are on your own in the health industry. In finance there are armies around).
Banks have like 10 different kinds of risk that they and their supervision are monitoring for. Yes, banks fail, but that's because people suck and are bad at things and the second law of thermodynamics and so forth. It isn't necessarily the same in other countries but banking, like many other industries, is increasingly global, and banking core systems are increasingly international.
Nubank is clearly doing a LOT of things right- I saw a presentation in person from them in February and it blew my mind the level of capability and abstraction they were working at. They are a solid entity with a strong growth path.
Cognitect, in contrast, is a tiny consulting firm. Maybe 50 employees? Technical consulting at scale is an incredibly hard business, particularly when your solution domain is limited to a particular toolchain. There was really no chance Cognitect was ever going to become Thoughtworks, or Deloitte, or anyone like that. That's an infinitely more fragile financial situation for Clojure than living under the roof of a business with a valuation in the billions.
The way to think about this is that all technologies have a sponsor. Clojure moves from basically being sponsored by a guy in his backyard to, like PHP (Etsy has a market cap of around $10B and employs the PHP leader). That's huge.
Beyond that, having what should become a more well known and reputable player in the financial industry backing it- you could well see A LOT MORE adoption from enterprises playing copycat. It's not going to happen right away, but it is a seminal step in COMPLETELY changing the enterprise adoption calculation.
However, everything is a tradeoff. If you aren't working with Datomic, or in finance- this move is a stronger statement that maybe Clojure doesn't have the strongest future for you. It isn't going to become a lot of other things that it could become. The finance industry has a fondness for languages with weird syntax, and those languages often stay in the finance industry niche. That's probably where Clojure stays. There are all sorts of wicked cool JVM things like LMAX and Azul that are also financial industry specific, and Clojure and Datomic get to become one of those. Very successful, very cool, but niche.
Anyway- hope that's helpful, happy to continue the conversation.
Cheers.
- juskrey 6y agoI have no issues with financial things per se - I have built several financial systems (from crypto to funds management) with Datomic and Clojure myself. And this is also one of the reasons I think having sole bank as your owner is a really really bad thing.
- jonahbenton 6y agoSay more? Would be helpful for others to further articulate your observations and opinions. No one has all the answers. For all who have a stake a full diversity of views is best.
- juskrey 6y agoI'll be really short: the bank lends money in Brazilian real to credit card holders and, in addition, keeps half of that in financial derivatives. The last real slide (3x in value) was in 2011-2016. Current world situation is.. interesting, to say at least, and 1 billion of VC money are not charity.
- jonahbenton 6y agoAh, yes, got it, that's helpful. Are their financial reports available and published in English? Would be interesting to read. I don't know details of their financial model, but will say: * there is a long bootstrap process for a bank that involves being selective with what customers they can serve with what products at what margins in what order * debt is a hard game, though in many niches now is the best of times * currency is also a hard game * in general, banks are valued at a small multiple of assets and do not attract VC * in general, SAAS businesses are valued at a large multiple of revenue and do attract VC So my assumption would be that they are using equity to build the ability to get into the banking core business as a SAAS, which is both lucrative and exploding as an opportunity (see recent nCino news). If they succeed, that's an extremely durable business, and not a bad place for Clojure to be. There are a number of languages that still only "exist" because they form the basis of a banking core. Cheers. Thanks for the engagement.