4 ms·

even with the uptick the us death rate overall is still very low ~0.04%, where majority the cases are the old people. Inline with what has been estimated by mos

by matz1 6y ago

even with the uptick the us death rate overall is still very low ~0.04%, where majority the cases are the old people. Inline with what has been estimated by most research publication.

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
That feels a bit like moving the goal post - you asked where the deaths were, and based upon the graph they are coming. When you say a stat like that you need to caveat it - is that 0.04% of the total population? Case fatality? Infection fatality? It's also not looking forward - today's total values aren't particularly useful when we can obviously see that the situation has been continually evolving.
- matz1 6y ago
  0.04% of the total population 145k out of 340 million. We can also see from Sweeden that the death rate are declining and that without lockdown.
  - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
    But that number is nonsensical in determining what actions we should take - it only has some questionable value if we look at it after the whole thing is over and the virus is long gone. Not everyone in America has been exposed to this virus, and many of those who have been exposed haven't run the full course of the disease. It's as useful as saying that in August of last year no one was infected and so it clearly would never kill anyone.
    - matz1 6y ago
      ok the current cdc best estimate of ifr 0.65%. Which is low. yes the number are changing but it quickly converging as times goes. Lockdown is not free, its not without harm.
      - DanBC 6y ago
        > the current cdc best estimate of ifr 0.65% Do you have a CDC page giving that number please?
        matz1 6y ago
        https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
        DanBC 6y ago
        You probably need to include information about how uncertain that number is. > New data on COVID-19 are available daily, yet information about the biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values. [...] > Many uncertainties remain. [...] Observed parameter values may also change over time (e.g., the percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset will be influenced by how quickly and effectively both symptomatic people and the contacts of known cases are quarantined). > The parameters in the scenarios: > Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning. > Are NOT predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19. > Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.
      - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
        But the stats are converging upwards, and it's dishonest to throw an unrelated number out there like it's a useful fact. In May they suggested a 0.4% IFR [1] so conditions and fatality estimates have gotten worse. That's an extra million citizens dead if everyone gets it. > Lockdown is not free, its not without harm. Do you believe this gives you lee-way to diminish and share bad facts to bolster your claim? [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estima... <- can't find the original source due to the link being updated on the CDC site.
        6y ago
  - cfmcdonald 6y ago
    The U.S. has already tallied 145K deaths. It's not clear what % of the population has been infected but it's surely much less than 100%. So clearly 0.04% can't be the correct overall death rate.

by matz1 6y ago

even with the uptick the us death rate overall is still very low ~0.04%, where majority the cases are the old people. Inline with what has been estimated by most research publication.

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago

That feels a bit like moving the goal post - you asked where the deaths were, and based upon the graph they are coming. When you say a stat like that you need to caveat it - is that 0.04% of the total population? Case fatality? Infection fatality? It's also not looking forward - today's total values aren't particularly useful when we can obviously see that the situation has been continually evolving.

matz1 6y ago
0.04% of the total population 145k out of 340 million. We can also see from Sweeden that the death rate are declining and that without lockdown.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
  But that number is nonsensical in determining what actions we should take - it only has some questionable value if we look at it after the whole thing is over and the virus is long gone. Not everyone in America has been exposed to this virus, and many of those who have been exposed haven't run the full course of the disease. It's as useful as saying that in August of last year no one was infected and so it clearly would never kill anyone.
  - matz1 6y ago
    ok the current cdc best estimate of ifr 0.65%. Which is low. yes the number are changing but it quickly converging as times goes. Lockdown is not free, its not without harm.
    - DanBC 6y ago
      > the current cdc best estimate of ifr 0.65% Do you have a CDC page giving that number please?
      - matz1 6y ago
        https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
        DanBC 6y ago
        You probably need to include information about how uncertain that number is. > New data on COVID-19 are available daily, yet information about the biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values. [...] > Many uncertainties remain. [...] Observed parameter values may also change over time (e.g., the percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset will be influenced by how quickly and effectively both symptomatic people and the contacts of known cases are quarantined). > The parameters in the scenarios: > Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning. > Are NOT predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19. > Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.
    - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
      But the stats are converging upwards, and it's dishonest to throw an unrelated number out there like it's a useful fact. In May they suggested a 0.4% IFR [1] so conditions and fatality estimates have gotten worse. That's an extra million citizens dead if everyone gets it. > Lockdown is not free, its not without harm. Do you believe this gives you lee-way to diminish and share bad facts to bolster your claim? [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estima... <- can't find the original source due to the link being updated on the CDC site.
      - 6y ago
- cfmcdonald 6y ago
  The U.S. has already tallied 145K deaths. It's not clear what % of the population has been infected but it's surely much less than 100%. So clearly 0.04% can't be the correct overall death rate.