The argument is that on this timescales they would be here for now. But all this doesn’t really matter since you can’t apply frequentist logic in bayesian situ

The argument is that on this timescales they would be here for now. But all this doesn’t really matter since you can’t apply frequentist logic in bayesian situation: what we observe is exactly the same as someone in the long tail of distribution would observe, i.e. we can’t distinguish between this being unlikely situation and being first, or this being proof of Great Filter.