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Tesla hasn't proved that you can make a reasonable amount of profit compared to your investment when selling to that market. Hell, they haven't showed you can m

by _mog1 6y ago

Tesla hasn't proved that you can make a reasonable amount of profit compared to your investment when selling to that market. Hell, they haven't showed you can make any profit on that investment, they're still deep in the red. It would take them something like 10+ more years at their current income to even break even. Is it really such a surprise that companies that need to make money aren't dying to get into that market?

marvin 6y ago
Then, suddenly, the day arrives when battery tech has advanced to the point where it's obvious even to casual observers that battery tech is the future. Hell, it's the present by then. We're almost there. Battery tech is still following an exponential decline in price/performance. Problem is, now the rest of the industry is 10 years behind. They were hoping to just buy this tech from their suppliers, but so is everyone else. All profit gone in a bidding war. Making your own requires double-digit billions of investments (OK, plausible) and 10 years lead time. Let's be super charitable and say 5 due to the existence proof and leaky personnel. Now they've got to catch up while their newly equal-sized competitor eats their lunch. Classic innovator's dilemma, and it's as obvious today as it was in 2013. Probably more.
- abenga 6y ago
  How is the Taycan 10 years behind any Tesla model?
  - marvin 6y ago
    Costs 50% more than any. Also inferior range due to 1000 small design & drivetrain details. Can't produce 100,000 of them per year, due to battery sourcing constraints. No global charging network that will make cross-country trips painless. Technically charges at 350kW, but good luck finding more than a 50kW CHAdeMO along your route. Especially during congested hours. Porche claims intention to install 800 of the fastest charging points globally by 2020, but after years of dragging feet, onus is on them to prove it. This is what most casual observers fail to get. It's not about the specs of the cars themselves, it's about thousands of small details in production & distribution infrastructure, charging technology and UX that go deeper than just paying a subcontractor to slap it on top. Many manufacturers can, with a proper effort, make something that seems convincing at a casual glance. But creating a properly competitive product is hard and will take years. Along with a cultural change that I think almost none will mange.

by _mog1 6y ago

marvin 6y ago

Then, suddenly, the day arrives when battery tech has advanced to the point where it's obvious even to casual observers that battery tech is the future. Hell, it's the present by then. We're almost there. Battery tech is still following an exponential decline in price/performance. Problem is, now the rest of the industry is 10 years behind. They were hoping to just buy this tech from their suppliers, but so is everyone else. All profit gone in a bidding war. Making your own requires double-digit billions of investments (OK, plausible) and 10 years lead time. Let's be super charitable and say 5 due to the existence proof and leaky personnel. Now they've got to catch up while their newly equal-sized competitor eats their lunch. Classic innovator's dilemma, and it's as obvious today as it was in 2013. Probably more.

abenga 6y ago
How is the Taycan 10 years behind any Tesla model?
- marvin 6y ago
  Costs 50% more than any. Also inferior range due to 1000 small design & drivetrain details. Can't produce 100,000 of them per year, due to battery sourcing constraints. No global charging network that will make cross-country trips painless. Technically charges at 350kW, but good luck finding more than a 50kW CHAdeMO along your route. Especially during congested hours. Porche claims intention to install 800 of the fastest charging points globally by 2020, but after years of dragging feet, onus is on them to prove it. This is what most casual observers fail to get. It's not about the specs of the cars themselves, it's about thousands of small details in production & distribution infrastructure, charging technology and UX that go deeper than just paying a subcontractor to slap it on top. Many manufacturers can, with a proper effort, make something that seems convincing at a casual glance. But creating a properly competitive product is hard and will take years. Along with a cultural change that I think almost none will mange.