6 ms·

Purely anecdotal but we are in the market for a new car when our current lease runs out. We were looking at Tesla and the quality is not there and dealerships

Purely anecdotal but we are in the market for a new car when our current lease runs out. We were looking at Tesla and the quality is not there and dealerships means we can’t test etc. The valuation is crazy, VW can literally flip the switch and start producing more e-Golfs etc when the demand is there.

Crash0v3rid3 6y ago
But can VW produce batteries at the scale of Tesla? I doubt it.
andrewxdiamond 6y ago
If VW could do that, why havent they? Tesla proved there is a market
- _mog1 6y ago
  Tesla hasn't proved that you can make a reasonable amount of profit compared to your investment when selling to that market. Hell, they haven't showed you can make any profit on that investment, they're still deep in the red. It would take them something like 10+ more years at their current income to even break even. Is it really such a surprise that companies that need to make money aren't dying to get into that market?
  - marvin 6y ago
    Then, suddenly, the day arrives when battery tech has advanced to the point where it's obvious even to casual observers that battery tech is the future. Hell, it's the present by then. We're almost there. Battery tech is still following an exponential decline in price/performance. Problem is, now the rest of the industry is 10 years behind. They were hoping to just buy this tech from their suppliers, but so is everyone else. All profit gone in a bidding war. Making your own requires double-digit billions of investments (OK, plausible) and 10 years lead time. Let's be super charitable and say 5 due to the existence proof and leaky personnel. Now they've got to catch up while their newly equal-sized competitor eats their lunch. Classic innovator's dilemma, and it's as obvious today as it was in 2013. Probably more.
    - abenga 6y ago
      How is the Taycan 10 years behind any Tesla model?
      - marvin 6y ago
        Costs 50% more than any. Also inferior range due to 1000 small design & drivetrain details. Can't produce 100,000 of them per year, due to battery sourcing constraints. No global charging network that will make cross-country trips painless. Technically charges at 350kW, but good luck finding more than a 50kW CHAdeMO along your route. Especially during congested hours. Porche claims intention to install 800 of the fastest charging points globally by 2020, but after years of dragging feet, onus is on them to prove it. This is what most casual observers fail to get. It's not about the specs of the cars themselves, it's about thousands of small details in production & distribution infrastructure, charging technology and UX that go deeper than just paying a subcontractor to slap it on top. Many manufacturers can, with a proper effort, make something that seems convincing at a casual glance. But creating a properly competitive product is hard and will take years. Along with a cultural change that I think almost none will mange.
CydeWeys 6y ago
So you'll be getting the e-Golf? I just looked it up and its range is only 123 miles; is that enough?
- jliptzin 6y ago
  You need 300 mile rated range bare minimum or you are going to be in for a lot of headaches. That range is only actually 300 miles when the climate is good (not too cold) and you are driving like a grandma. If you're in a cold climate or you want to do 80 on the highway or a lot of quick accelerating/stopping or elevation changes that range goes down. On top of that, you really don't want to drive the car down to 0% charge for obvious reasons so you want to give yourself at least a 5-10% cushion to your destination (aka you never get below that threshold), so slice another 5-10% off the car's useful range. Then of course the battery natural degrades after a lot of charge/discharge cycles. I love my model 3 long range and this is why other car companies producing EVs under 300 mile range for the same price as a tesla are a joke.
  - notJim 6y ago
    Not if you have 2 cars (or are willing to rent) and a short commute (covid? why buy a car at all?). I rarely drive more than like 25 miles in a day. Even most of the close hikes I do are within about 30 miles of my house.
    - CydeWeys 6y ago
      I could see the e-Golf being a good second car for a couple, and then use the longer range car for longer weekend trips, but as an only car, no. That range is just too limiting, and if I owned a car I would be driving around on an average of at least one drive per month that the e-Golf wouldn't be capable of doing without a recharge but that the Model 3 can. We're talking vacations, going hiking, visiting family who live several states away, etc. I definitely would not remotely consider, as an only car, having one so limiting that I'd be renting another car every month for longer trips. That just doesn't make sense.
BbzzbB 6y ago
Not to defend TSLA's valuation, but the argument of other car giants being "able to flip a switch and make something better" has been proven wrong many times. There are plenty of rational "TSLAQ-arguments", that one is no longer on that list.
- marvin 6y ago
  I think we're beyond TSLAQ by now. Are you saying there is a high likelihood that Tesla will go out of business? (The 'Q' means de-listed from the stock exchange). Maybe the valuation is a bit steep, sure. But there aren't many reasonable arguments left for the company going under, apart from perhaps investment overextension due to some future initiative, or some magical and incredible accounting fraud.
  - BbzzbB 6y ago
    True, I still use it to designate the short-TSLA/anti-TSLA crowd which tirelessly uses this argument despite the evidence that it is false. As for the chances of Tesla going under being slim to none at this point, which I agree with and believe explains (partly) the stock's repricing, I think it's still a popular argument for the die-hard Tesla shorts à la Einhorn.
codeulike 6y ago
VW can literally flip the switch and start producing more e-Golfs etc when the demand is there. No they can't. For one, the e-Golf is roughly competitive with the Nissan Leaf but has nothing on the range/performance of a Tesla. VW have been faffing about trying to launch their new ID3 EV for ages (has that launched yet?). Building decent EVs is hard. If the efficiency is not there in the drivetrain, then the car is either too short range or too expensive. And you need to source batteries. Either gotta build your own huge factory, or squabble with all the other carmakers to source them from the same places as everyone else. Look at recent efforts by Audi and Porche to make 'tesla killers'. They are barely Tesla ticklers. Maybe they have one strong metric or whatever (track handling for the Porche, charging speed for the Audi) but they aren't really anywhere close in price/range/overall package terms. Here's a press relase from 2013, when VW declared they would lead the world on EVs by 2018. September 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Volkswagen Group has set its sights on global market leadership in electric mobility. "We are starting at exactly the right time. We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018", Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn, CEO of Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft, said on the eve of the 65th International Motor Show in Frankfurt am Main. https://tass.com/press-releases/700457 https://tass.com/press-releases/700457
rconti 6y ago
We've got a Model 3, it's been super solid over 2 years and 34k miles. VW's been making eGolfs for a long time, and... where's this world dominance? When will they flip the switch? And, you can definitely test drive a Tesla, if there's a showroom place nearby.

Crash0v3rid3 6y ago

But can VW produce batteries at the scale of Tesla? I doubt it.

andrewxdiamond 6y ago

If VW could do that, why havent they? Tesla proved there is a market

_mog1 6y ago
Tesla hasn't proved that you can make a reasonable amount of profit compared to your investment when selling to that market. Hell, they haven't showed you can make any profit on that investment, they're still deep in the red. It would take them something like 10+ more years at their current income to even break even. Is it really such a surprise that companies that need to make money aren't dying to get into that market?
- marvin 6y ago
  Then, suddenly, the day arrives when battery tech has advanced to the point where it's obvious even to casual observers that battery tech is the future. Hell, it's the present by then. We're almost there. Battery tech is still following an exponential decline in price/performance. Problem is, now the rest of the industry is 10 years behind. They were hoping to just buy this tech from their suppliers, but so is everyone else. All profit gone in a bidding war. Making your own requires double-digit billions of investments (OK, plausible) and 10 years lead time. Let's be super charitable and say 5 due to the existence proof and leaky personnel. Now they've got to catch up while their newly equal-sized competitor eats their lunch. Classic innovator's dilemma, and it's as obvious today as it was in 2013. Probably more.
  - abenga 6y ago
    How is the Taycan 10 years behind any Tesla model?
    - marvin 6y ago
      Costs 50% more than any. Also inferior range due to 1000 small design & drivetrain details. Can't produce 100,000 of them per year, due to battery sourcing constraints. No global charging network that will make cross-country trips painless. Technically charges at 350kW, but good luck finding more than a 50kW CHAdeMO along your route. Especially during congested hours. Porche claims intention to install 800 of the fastest charging points globally by 2020, but after years of dragging feet, onus is on them to prove it. This is what most casual observers fail to get. It's not about the specs of the cars themselves, it's about thousands of small details in production & distribution infrastructure, charging technology and UX that go deeper than just paying a subcontractor to slap it on top. Many manufacturers can, with a proper effort, make something that seems convincing at a casual glance. But creating a properly competitive product is hard and will take years. Along with a cultural change that I think almost none will mange.

CydeWeys 6y ago

So you'll be getting the e-Golf? I just looked it up and its range is only 123 miles; is that enough?

jliptzin 6y ago
You need 300 mile rated range bare minimum or you are going to be in for a lot of headaches. That range is only actually 300 miles when the climate is good (not too cold) and you are driving like a grandma. If you're in a cold climate or you want to do 80 on the highway or a lot of quick accelerating/stopping or elevation changes that range goes down. On top of that, you really don't want to drive the car down to 0% charge for obvious reasons so you want to give yourself at least a 5-10% cushion to your destination (aka you never get below that threshold), so slice another 5-10% off the car's useful range. Then of course the battery natural degrades after a lot of charge/discharge cycles. I love my model 3 long range and this is why other car companies producing EVs under 300 mile range for the same price as a tesla are a joke.
- notJim 6y ago
  Not if you have 2 cars (or are willing to rent) and a short commute (covid? why buy a car at all?). I rarely drive more than like 25 miles in a day. Even most of the close hikes I do are within about 30 miles of my house.
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    I could see the e-Golf being a good second car for a couple, and then use the longer range car for longer weekend trips, but as an only car, no. That range is just too limiting, and if I owned a car I would be driving around on an average of at least one drive per month that the e-Golf wouldn't be capable of doing without a recharge but that the Model 3 can. We're talking vacations, going hiking, visiting family who live several states away, etc. I definitely would not remotely consider, as an only car, having one so limiting that I'd be renting another car every month for longer trips. That just doesn't make sense.

BbzzbB 6y ago

Not to defend TSLA's valuation, but the argument of other car giants being "able to flip a switch and make something better" has been proven wrong many times. There are plenty of rational "TSLAQ-arguments", that one is no longer on that list.

marvin 6y ago
I think we're beyond TSLAQ by now. Are you saying there is a high likelihood that Tesla will go out of business? (The 'Q' means de-listed from the stock exchange). Maybe the valuation is a bit steep, sure. But there aren't many reasonable arguments left for the company going under, apart from perhaps investment overextension due to some future initiative, or some magical and incredible accounting fraud.
- BbzzbB 6y ago
  True, I still use it to designate the short-TSLA/anti-TSLA crowd which tirelessly uses this argument despite the evidence that it is false. As for the chances of Tesla going under being slim to none at this point, which I agree with and believe explains (partly) the stock's repricing, I think it's still a popular argument for the die-hard Tesla shorts à la Einhorn.

codeulike 6y ago

VW can literally flip the switch and start producing more e-Golfs etc when the demand is there. No they can't. For one, the e-Golf is roughly competitive with the Nissan Leaf but has nothing on the range/performance of a Tesla. VW have been faffing about trying to launch their new ID3 EV for ages (has that launched yet?). Building decent EVs is hard. If the efficiency is not there in the drivetrain, then the car is either too short range or too expensive. And you need to source batteries. Either gotta build your own huge factory, or squabble with all the other carmakers to source them from the same places as everyone else. Look at recent efforts by Audi and Porche to make 'tesla killers'. They are barely Tesla ticklers. Maybe they have one strong metric or whatever (track handling for the Porche, charging speed for the Audi) but they aren't really anywhere close in price/range/overall package terms. Here's a press relase from 2013, when VW declared they would lead the world on EVs by 2018. September 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Volkswagen Group has set its sights on global market leadership in electric mobility. "We are starting at exactly the right time. We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018", Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn, CEO of Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft, said on the eve of the 65th International Motor Show in Frankfurt am Main. https://tass.com/press-releases/700457 https://tass.com/press-releases/700457

rconti 6y ago

We've got a Model 3, it's been super solid over 2 years and 34k miles. VW's been making eGolfs for a long time, and... where's this world dominance? When will they flip the switch? And, you can definitely test drive a Tesla, if there's a showroom place nearby.