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I found it interesting that the general consensus seems to be that Sweden failed, and yet NY state was just hailed as "doing it correctly" by Dr. Fauci [0] (des

by lsllc 6y ago

I found it interesting that the general consensus seems to be that Sweden failed, and yet NY state was just hailed as "doing it correctly" by Dr. Fauci [0] (despite one of the very highest per-capita death rates in the world). We didn't do much better here in MA in terms of deaths, although like NY we're only seeing a very small (and importantly flat) number of cases here. Meanwhile Australia, a country that was previously hailed as having done it right and contained COVID-19 has now locked down 6.6 million people [1], closed state borders between Queensland and NSW [2] and currently seeing record numbers of infections [3]. Only time will tell which is the best strategy. [0] https://abc7ny.com/covid-19-ny-fauci-anthony-cuomo/6324584/ https://abc7ny.com/covid-19-ny-fauci-anthony-cuomo/6324584/ [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/asia/australia-victoria-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/asia/australia-victoria-coron... [2] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/australia-shutting-border-between-two-biggest-states-as-covid-19-surges-in-melbourne-2020-07-06 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/australia-shutting-border-... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-22/australia-sets-record-for-coronavirus-cases-with-victoria-surge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-22/australia...

rumanator 6y ago
> found it interesting that the general consensus seems to be that Sweden failed, and yet NY state was just hailed as "doing it correctly" by Dr. Fauci [0] You should read the sources you quote. Dr. Fauci's comments are on NY's approach on "how to successfully bring down cases of coronavirus." It says nothing about what enabled the epidemic to spread like wildfire, which is Sweden's case. Taken right from your own source: "Again, we have a problem. We need to admit it and own it. But we have got to do the things that are very clear that we need to do to turn this around, remembering we can do it," Fauci said."
- lsllc 6y ago
  I did read it. My point was that it seems to me that Sweden and NY are at about the same place now. Sweden basically just let it happen and NY locked down and imposed significant measures. Both had significant deaths in the elderly population (although significantly more in NY than Sweden) and both now have very few new cases & deaths, so the outcome has been similar. Also interesting is that CA took very similar measures to NY with very similar timing and now are seeing the exact opposite to NY (although the media seem to be a bit quiet on that!).
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > Also interesting is that CA took very similar measures to NY with very similar timing and now are seeing the exact opposite to NY CA did not act with similar timing relative to disease progression, whether on initiating the lockdown or reopening; particularly, it began quickly reopening when cases had barely flattened, earlier than New York either on the calendar or with regard to the progression of the epidemic, whereas NY didn't start reopening till they had dropped way down and still hasn't opened indoor restaurants in NYC, while California had reopened bars and restaurants statewide before beginning reclosing. > although the media seem to be a bit quiet on that! California's woes resulting from the premature reopening are heavily covered in the national (and even international) media. If you mean that the false claim that California policy closely tracked New York’s and got different outcomes isn't getting media play, you are right, but that's only because it's completely false. New York was somewhat slower on the calendar and even moreso with regard to cases in closing, which was a big initial failure relative to California, but California bungled even worse with rushed reopening.
    - lsllc 6y ago
      Was going by the information on rt.live regarding closing and re-opening for NY and CA, it shows the following dates (and may well be incorrect): | Shelter Start | Shelter End | Reopening Start -------+---------------+-------------+------------------ CA [0] | Mar 19 | ? | May 25 NY [1] | Mar 22 | May 28 | May 15 Agreed that NYC itself didn't re-open at the same rate up but my understanding is that it was similar in CA (county by county and the more populous counties such as the SF bay area did not re-open as much). For sure though, when NY locked down the community spread was likely far greater than it was in CA which I think shows in the C19 related deaths. [0] https://rt.live/us/CA https://rt.live/us/CA [1] https://rt.live/us/NY https://rt.live/us/NY
      - dragonwriter 6y ago
        > Was going by the information on rt.live regarding closing and re-opening for NY and CA, it shows the following dates (and may well be incorrect): For California, that's definitely wrong. California moved into Stage 2 reopening on May 8. > Agreed that NYC itself didn't re-open at the same rate up but my understanding is that it was similar in CA (county by county and the more populous counties such as the SF bay area did not re-open as much). That's loosely, qualitatively, true, but even most of the more populated counties had reopened more than NYC, and several counties had variances to go ahead of the statewide reopening.
mantap 6y ago
NYC is extremely densely populated you would expect it to be an epicenter. Sweden, not so much.
viklove 6y ago
Population of Sweden (a country): 10.23 million Land area of Sweden: 173,860 mi² Population of NY State: 19.45 million Land area of NY State: 54,556 mi² Keep in mind Sweden's most populous city (Stockholm) has a population of 1 million. NYC has a population of 8.4 million. Not to mention Sweden is culturally homogenous while NY is extremely diverse. Please justify your comparison.
- lsllc 6y ago
  I was merely saying that the consensus seems to be that Sweden has failed in it's experiment and been irresponsible in allowing a higher per-capita death rate compared to it's nordic neighbors. However it seems that NY (state) is now being held up as an example of a good response -- specifically with Dr. Fauci called Gov. Cuomo's response "doing it correctly" (despite 32K deaths many of which it seems might have been directly related to a policy of discharging COVID patients into nursing homes [0]). [0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/07/22/andrew-cuomo-nursing-homes-coronavirus-janice-dean-new-york-column/5472713002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/07/22/and...
Khaine 6y ago
In Australia, there has been an increase due to failings of the state government of Victoria in poor practices by guards of returned travellers in forced quarantine resulting in its spread, particularly to public housing apartment complexes[1] As this jump occurred during school holidays, it looks like Melbournians have spread it to NSW as well which is why there is a jump in NSW. [2] Australia would still be in a relatively good position if it wasn't for the incompetence of the Andrews Government. [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/coronavirus-quarantine-hotel-security-guards-recruited-whatsapp/12476574 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/coronavirus-quarantin... [2] https://www.smh.com.au/national/melburnian-linked-to-sydney-s-crossroads-hotel-covid-19-cluster-20200715-p55cel.html https://www.smh.com.au/national/melburnian-linked-to-sydney-... [2]
- mmerlin 6y ago
  Definitely agree. Although to get slightly meta about this, the core blame lies with the 25 years trend of Australian governments outsourcing or selling off every possible previously-government-owned service they can (mostly to China-owned corporations) for a short term sugar hit of revenue for the currently incumbent politicians, to make themselves look good, without caring about the negative long term consequences to government revenue. Profitable government monopolies like the Land Titles Registries have been sold to private international owners, who then raise costs for citizens, in order to recoup their investment faster. Politicians strongly favour awarding outsourced contracts to their donors. In this case without opening the contract up for tender or competitive bidding, and obviously without much due diligence e.g. I read that one of the security firms donated $76k to Dan Andrews party last year. So government outsources work to contractors who subcontract the work to independent ABN holders, who in turn can subcontract the work out to their employees, who in turn might be subcontractors themselves to the last company in the chain. Politicians and public servants are normally happy with this arrangement because they can then wash their hands of blame for any mistakes, and pin it on the outsourcers who stuffed up. In this case though, the blame is serious enough that it has jumped the subcontractor firewalls and burned its way all the way back up to the top (Dan Andrews).
  - Khaine 6y ago

by lsllc 6y ago

rumanator 6y ago

> found it interesting that the general consensus seems to be that Sweden failed, and yet NY state was just hailed as "doing it correctly" by Dr. Fauci [0] You should read the sources you quote. Dr. Fauci's comments are on NY's approach on "how to successfully bring down cases of coronavirus." It says nothing about what enabled the epidemic to spread like wildfire, which is Sweden's case. Taken right from your own source: "Again, we have a problem. We need to admit it and own it. But we have got to do the things that are very clear that we need to do to turn this around, remembering we can do it," Fauci said."

lsllc 6y ago
I did read it. My point was that it seems to me that Sweden and NY are at about the same place now. Sweden basically just let it happen and NY locked down and imposed significant measures. Both had significant deaths in the elderly population (although significantly more in NY than Sweden) and both now have very few new cases & deaths, so the outcome has been similar. Also interesting is that CA took very similar measures to NY with very similar timing and now are seeing the exact opposite to NY (although the media seem to be a bit quiet on that!).
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > Also interesting is that CA took very similar measures to NY with very similar timing and now are seeing the exact opposite to NY CA did not act with similar timing relative to disease progression, whether on initiating the lockdown or reopening; particularly, it began quickly reopening when cases had barely flattened, earlier than New York either on the calendar or with regard to the progression of the epidemic, whereas NY didn't start reopening till they had dropped way down and still hasn't opened indoor restaurants in NYC, while California had reopened bars and restaurants statewide before beginning reclosing. > although the media seem to be a bit quiet on that! California's woes resulting from the premature reopening are heavily covered in the national (and even international) media. If you mean that the false claim that California policy closely tracked New York’s and got different outcomes isn't getting media play, you are right, but that's only because it's completely false. New York was somewhat slower on the calendar and even moreso with regard to cases in closing, which was a big initial failure relative to California, but California bungled even worse with rushed reopening.
  - lsllc 6y ago
    Was going by the information on rt.live regarding closing and re-opening for NY and CA, it shows the following dates (and may well be incorrect): | Shelter Start | Shelter End | Reopening Start -------+---------------+-------------+------------------ CA [0] | Mar 19 | ? | May 25 NY [1] | Mar 22 | May 28 | May 15 Agreed that NYC itself didn't re-open at the same rate up but my understanding is that it was similar in CA (county by county and the more populous counties such as the SF bay area did not re-open as much). For sure though, when NY locked down the community spread was likely far greater than it was in CA which I think shows in the C19 related deaths. [0] https://rt.live/us/CA https://rt.live/us/CA [1] https://rt.live/us/NY https://rt.live/us/NY
    - dragonwriter 6y ago
      > Was going by the information on rt.live regarding closing and re-opening for NY and CA, it shows the following dates (and may well be incorrect): For California, that's definitely wrong. California moved into Stage 2 reopening on May 8. > Agreed that NYC itself didn't re-open at the same rate up but my understanding is that it was similar in CA (county by county and the more populous counties such as the SF bay area did not re-open as much). That's loosely, qualitatively, true, but even most of the more populated counties had reopened more than NYC, and several counties had variances to go ahead of the statewide reopening.

mantap 6y ago

NYC is extremely densely populated you would expect it to be an epicenter. Sweden, not so much.

viklove 6y ago

Population of Sweden (a country): 10.23 million Land area of Sweden: 173,860 mi² Population of NY State: 19.45 million Land area of NY State: 54,556 mi² Keep in mind Sweden's most populous city (Stockholm) has a population of 1 million. NYC has a population of 8.4 million. Not to mention Sweden is culturally homogenous while NY is extremely diverse. Please justify your comparison.

lsllc 6y ago
I was merely saying that the consensus seems to be that Sweden has failed in it's experiment and been irresponsible in allowing a higher per-capita death rate compared to it's nordic neighbors. However it seems that NY (state) is now being held up as an example of a good response -- specifically with Dr. Fauci called Gov. Cuomo's response "doing it correctly" (despite 32K deaths many of which it seems might have been directly related to a policy of discharging COVID patients into nursing homes [0]). [0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/07/22/andrew-cuomo-nursing-homes-coronavirus-janice-dean-new-york-column/5472713002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/07/22/and...

Khaine 6y ago

In Australia, there has been an increase due to failings of the state government of Victoria in poor practices by guards of returned travellers in forced quarantine resulting in its spread, particularly to public housing apartment complexes[1] As this jump occurred during school holidays, it looks like Melbournians have spread it to NSW as well which is why there is a jump in NSW. [2] Australia would still be in a relatively good position if it wasn't for the incompetence of the Andrews Government. [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/coronavirus-quarantine-hotel-security-guards-recruited-whatsapp/12476574 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/coronavirus-quarantin... [2] https://www.smh.com.au/national/melburnian-linked-to-sydney-s-crossroads-hotel-covid-19-cluster-20200715-p55cel.html https://www.smh.com.au/national/melburnian-linked-to-sydney-... [2]

mmerlin 6y ago
Definitely agree. Although to get slightly meta about this, the core blame lies with the 25 years trend of Australian governments outsourcing or selling off every possible previously-government-owned service they can (mostly to China-owned corporations) for a short term sugar hit of revenue for the currently incumbent politicians, to make themselves look good, without caring about the negative long term consequences to government revenue. Profitable government monopolies like the Land Titles Registries have been sold to private international owners, who then raise costs for citizens, in order to recoup their investment faster. Politicians strongly favour awarding outsourced contracts to their donors. In this case without opening the contract up for tender or competitive bidding, and obviously without much due diligence e.g. I read that one of the security firms donated $76k to Dan Andrews party last year. So government outsources work to contractors who subcontract the work to independent ABN holders, who in turn can subcontract the work out to their employees, who in turn might be subcontractors themselves to the last company in the chain. Politicians and public servants are normally happy with this arrangement because they can then wash their hands of blame for any mistakes, and pin it on the outsourcers who stuffed up. In this case though, the blame is serious enough that it has jumped the subcontractor firewalls and burned its way all the way back up to the top (Dan Andrews).
- Khaine 6y ago