6 ms·

I'd say that the fact that Sweden still had the same level of restrictions as they previously had is proof that their approach is working exactly as intended -

by makomk 6y ago

I'd say that the fact that Sweden still had the same level of restrictions as they previously had is proof that their approach is working exactly as intended - the people behind it have long said that the goal isn't to push for herd immunity, but to impose measures that are sustainable in the long term rather than a short-term lockdown. Especially since many of the countries that have locked down and then opened up are seeing a resurgence of the disease, and their definition of opening up is sometimes as strict or stricter than Sweden's rules (for example, the UK bans gatherings of over 30 people and restricts restaurants and bars to table service only, amongst many other restrictions).

imartin2k 6y ago
The UK is a bad example, cause they have been doing worse than Sweden in every regard. There are plenty of countries in Europe which have much more relaxed limits now, for example Germany, Switzerland or the Czech Republic. Probably the other Nordic countries too (I'm not entirely sure about the latest there though).
- hedora 6y ago
  According to: https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden Germany is currently socially distancing at a similar rate as Sweden. They previously had stricter social distancing and have far fewer per-capita infections and deaths, but the model says they’ll hit a nasty second wave in mid October. Time will tell whether Sweden’s bet pays off in the long term.
  - Semaphor 6y ago
    Our (Germany) rates are actually somewhat surprising to me. We seem to generally have done very well when compared to other (European) countries of similar density.
  - lbeltrame 6y ago
    > but the model says they’ll hit a nasty second wave in mid October. I am wary of modeling "that far" in time, because while vaccines may take a little more to get ready, there are plenty of trials starting or going on for pharmacological treatments, which may give readouts as early as September. While perhaps they won't be able to avoid infections, they might change clinical management significantly, in particular monoclonal antibodies.
  - addicted 6y ago
    How in the world will “time tell”? Sweden has a worse death rate than its comparable neighbors, it’s economy has been hit as much if not more, and it has no greater “herd immunity” than the rest. And the neighbors are opening up in a way Sweden cannot. Essentially, Sweden did go into lockdown, and the difference from its neighbors were at the very margins. The economy was affected linearly by the additional activity at the margin, in other words, not by much, but on the other hand the virus growth was impacted exponentially, causing a significantly higher infection and death rate. And this is Sweden, a country with a highly educated population, extremely good social and health systems, that was far better equipped to implement voluntary measures than the vast majority of the world.
basch 6y ago
>Especially since many of the countries that have locked down and then opened up are seeing a resurgence of the disease Isnt that the expected result? Did anyone think something else would happen? The original communication everyone was fed was "hospitals arent ready, close down to flatten the curve to buy time." They asked for a delay, not spread prevention. Spread prevention being, stay locked down forever until everybody gets its slowly.
- 1996 6y ago
  Sweden made a contrarian bet: that hospitals won't be flooded, and a few less ambitious measures that people will tolerate for a longer time is better than a large list of freedom destroying measures that can only lead to riots if imposed for too long (depending on the countries, you had things like lockdown at home, with only shopping on some days depending on the last digit of your social security, or only going out for 1 hour per day with printed, signed and dated papers to present to the police, etc)
  - petre 6y ago
    It worked better than for Serbia, where people were recently rioting for being locked down again for a whole weekend.
  - Spartan-S63 6y ago
    I also think the bet depended on Sweden's culture of social responsibility. Doing something similar in the US would never work. We don't have a culture of social responsibility. It's why draconian measures were required. Recommendations don't work and laws/ordnances only work to an extent. In essence, the US has such a self-centered culture that the only option to combat a pandemic like this is draconian lockdown that borders on infringing on individual rights.
    - minerjoe 6y ago
      Conquer with Inaction Do not control the people with laws, Nor violence nor espionage, But conquer them with inaction. For: The more morals and taboos there are, The more cruelty afflicts people; The more guns and knives there are, The more factions divide people; The more arts and skills there are, The more change obsoletes people; The more laws and taxes there are, The more theft corrupts people. Yet take no action, and the people nurture eachother; Make no laws, and the people deal fairly with eachother; Own no interest, and the people cooperate with eachother; Express no desire, and the people harmonize with eachother. -- Lao Tse, "Tao Te Ching"
addicted 6y ago
5 times as many deaths as their neighbors, with as much, if not greater economic hit than their neighbors, and an economic hut that is continuing unlike their neighbors who are now much closer to normality. If this is exactly how it’s supposed to be working I shudder to think what the bad case scenarios would have been.
- naeemtee 6y ago
  Short term economic damage is a) hard to measure and b) meaningless Sweden’s betting on long term recovery in light of second/third/etc waves. As much as it detracts from the catastrophic fear and loathing narrative, it has sound economic and epidemiological foundations.

by makomk 6y ago

imartin2k 6y ago

The UK is a bad example, cause they have been doing worse than Sweden in every regard. There are plenty of countries in Europe which have much more relaxed limits now, for example Germany, Switzerland or the Czech Republic. Probably the other Nordic countries too (I'm not entirely sure about the latest there though).

hedora 6y ago
According to: https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden Germany is currently socially distancing at a similar rate as Sweden. They previously had stricter social distancing and have far fewer per-capita infections and deaths, but the model says they’ll hit a nasty second wave in mid October. Time will tell whether Sweden’s bet pays off in the long term.
- Semaphor 6y ago
  Our (Germany) rates are actually somewhat surprising to me. We seem to generally have done very well when compared to other (European) countries of similar density.
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  > but the model says they’ll hit a nasty second wave in mid October. I am wary of modeling "that far" in time, because while vaccines may take a little more to get ready, there are plenty of trials starting or going on for pharmacological treatments, which may give readouts as early as September. While perhaps they won't be able to avoid infections, they might change clinical management significantly, in particular monoclonal antibodies.
- addicted 6y ago
  How in the world will “time tell”? Sweden has a worse death rate than its comparable neighbors, it’s economy has been hit as much if not more, and it has no greater “herd immunity” than the rest. And the neighbors are opening up in a way Sweden cannot. Essentially, Sweden did go into lockdown, and the difference from its neighbors were at the very margins. The economy was affected linearly by the additional activity at the margin, in other words, not by much, but on the other hand the virus growth was impacted exponentially, causing a significantly higher infection and death rate. And this is Sweden, a country with a highly educated population, extremely good social and health systems, that was far better equipped to implement voluntary measures than the vast majority of the world.

basch 6y ago

>Especially since many of the countries that have locked down and then opened up are seeing a resurgence of the disease Isnt that the expected result? Did anyone think something else would happen? The original communication everyone was fed was "hospitals arent ready, close down to flatten the curve to buy time." They asked for a delay, not spread prevention. Spread prevention being, stay locked down forever until everybody gets its slowly.

1996 6y ago
Sweden made a contrarian bet: that hospitals won't be flooded, and a few less ambitious measures that people will tolerate for a longer time is better than a large list of freedom destroying measures that can only lead to riots if imposed for too long (depending on the countries, you had things like lockdown at home, with only shopping on some days depending on the last digit of your social security, or only going out for 1 hour per day with printed, signed and dated papers to present to the police, etc)
- petre 6y ago
  It worked better than for Serbia, where people were recently rioting for being locked down again for a whole weekend.
- Spartan-S63 6y ago
  I also think the bet depended on Sweden's culture of social responsibility. Doing something similar in the US would never work. We don't have a culture of social responsibility. It's why draconian measures were required. Recommendations don't work and laws/ordnances only work to an extent. In essence, the US has such a self-centered culture that the only option to combat a pandemic like this is draconian lockdown that borders on infringing on individual rights.
  - minerjoe 6y ago
    Conquer with Inaction Do not control the people with laws, Nor violence nor espionage, But conquer them with inaction. For: The more morals and taboos there are, The more cruelty afflicts people; The more guns and knives there are, The more factions divide people; The more arts and skills there are, The more change obsoletes people; The more laws and taxes there are, The more theft corrupts people. Yet take no action, and the people nurture eachother; Make no laws, and the people deal fairly with eachother; Own no interest, and the people cooperate with eachother; Express no desire, and the people harmonize with eachother. -- Lao Tse, "Tao Te Ching"

addicted 6y ago

5 times as many deaths as their neighbors, with as much, if not greater economic hit than their neighbors, and an economic hut that is continuing unlike their neighbors who are now much closer to normality. If this is exactly how it’s supposed to be working I shudder to think what the bad case scenarios would have been.

naeemtee 6y ago
Short term economic damage is a) hard to measure and b) meaningless Sweden’s betting on long term recovery in light of second/third/etc waves. As much as it detracts from the catastrophic fear and loathing narrative, it has sound economic and epidemiological foundations.