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Some other explanations: The rest of Europe shut down and also shunned Sweden (most still do when it comes to travel from/to Sweden), which effectively put them
by matsemann 6y ago
Some other explanations: The rest of Europe shut down and also shunned Sweden (most still do when it comes to travel from/to Sweden), which effectively put them in a forced isolation whether they wanted to or not.
Same goes for lockdown. While it wasn't mandated as strongly as other countries, lots of people self-imposed those restrictions. So it cannot be compared as lockdown vs no lockdown.
- dmurray 6y agoNeither of these offer any explanation to why there would be exponential growth for four months, followed by a flattening of the curve and a sharp decrease. Being isolated from international travel is helpful when other countries have the virus and you don't, not the other way round. And I haven't seen anything to suggest that people restricted their movements in June/July than the previous months. You're right that it's not a perfect control group as there was some change in behaviour. But that's not relevant to my argument that we now have a good data point for the total "area under the curve". If they'd had no change in behaviour, we'd have seen the peak somewhat earlier. I don't have a good feel for whether people in Florida are restricting their behaviour more or less than Swedes - seems close enough to consider them the same.