10 ms·

Some important context not mentioned in the article: During summer, Swedes are spending as much time as possible outside (to make up for the dark cold winter m

Some important context not mentioned in the article: During summer, Swedes are spending as much time as possible outside (to make up for the dark cold winter months). Most offices are closed anyway, and unlike many other countries in Europe which have removed their previous limits, Sweden still has a 50 people limit on public gatherings and strict rules for how restaurants and bars can operate (for example, only table service, no bar service, even for outdoor venues). Amusement parks are closed. The authorities still ask people not to use public transport if they don't have to. Plus, people in risk groups (who don't have antibodies) are still asked to limit their interactions with others and to limit their mobility. So considering that infections are happening mostly indoors, that Sweden nowadays has more restrictions in place than many European countries that locked down and then opened up, and that Swedes generally protect their personal space and don't get too touchy with others (in comparison to some other cultures), it's not a surprise that the numbers in Sweden are going down. I'm happy about this trend. The way I see it, the country gets a second chance now to get things right ahead of fall/winter. Sadly, considering that the state epidemiologist and his team still are the same (and that he evidently mostly cares about telling everybody how great his strategy is/was), I guess they'll find ways to screw things up again.

manojlds 6y ago
You are also describing reasons why Sweden went for this strategy - their availability of space, limited physical contact etc. The argument is whether the strategy is working or not for Sweden vs a full lockdown in Sweden and not whether Sweden's strategy would have worked in other countries.
- black_puppydog 6y ago
  This would be okay if the strategy was explicitly "we will let people die and then hope that everything goes well once everyone's outdoors in summer." At least then people would honestly debate whether that's a morally/economically solid stance to take. But in that case they'll also have to explain what their strategy will be at the end of summer.
  - Ma8ee 6y ago
    They have been very transparent what the strategy is. Long term, since this won’t go away in just a few months the restrictions must be sustainable. Take into account the overall health and well-being of the people, don’t worry only about COVID-19. Only do what there are scientific evidence that it actually makes a difference. Make sure that the spread is slow enough so the health care system doesn’t get overwhelmed.
    - mixmastamyk 6y ago
      > Take into account the overall health and well-being This is a very concise way of putting what some believe is the best plan, thanks.
  - whydoyoucare 6y ago
    I don't think there is any clear or morally unambiguous answer to the first part ("we will let people die"). It simply is either people die now of virus, or die later of economic fallout. Also see the Trolley Problem [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem
makomk 6y ago
I'd say that the fact that Sweden still had the same level of restrictions as they previously had is proof that their approach is working exactly as intended - the people behind it have long said that the goal isn't to push for herd immunity, but to impose measures that are sustainable in the long term rather than a short-term lockdown. Especially since many of the countries that have locked down and then opened up are seeing a resurgence of the disease, and their definition of opening up is sometimes as strict or stricter than Sweden's rules (for example, the UK bans gatherings of over 30 people and restricts restaurants and bars to table service only, amongst many other restrictions).
- imartin2k 6y ago
  The UK is a bad example, cause they have been doing worse than Sweden in every regard. There are plenty of countries in Europe which have much more relaxed limits now, for example Germany, Switzerland or the Czech Republic. Probably the other Nordic countries too (I'm not entirely sure about the latest there though).
  - hedora 6y ago
    According to: https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden Germany is currently socially distancing at a similar rate as Sweden. They previously had stricter social distancing and have far fewer per-capita infections and deaths, but the model says they’ll hit a nasty second wave in mid October. Time will tell whether Sweden’s bet pays off in the long term.
    - Semaphor 6y ago
      Our (Germany) rates are actually somewhat surprising to me. We seem to generally have done very well when compared to other (European) countries of similar density.
    - lbeltrame 6y ago
      > but the model says they’ll hit a nasty second wave in mid October. I am wary of modeling "that far" in time, because while vaccines may take a little more to get ready, there are plenty of trials starting or going on for pharmacological treatments, which may give readouts as early as September. While perhaps they won't be able to avoid infections, they might change clinical management significantly, in particular monoclonal antibodies.
black_puppydog 6y ago
Yeah I also noticed lately that the numbers collapsed after a peak on June 24th. The people being diagnosed on the 24th should have been infected just about on midsummer. And then the numbers collapsed. That matches extremely well my experience that after midsummer (June 21st) most Swedes clear out the cities, going to summer houses or abroad or, failing that, being outdoors as much as possible. So I was "surprised" to not even see that fact be mentioned in the article and would be cautious about attributing this to the Swedish strategy. Did they make any policy changes in the days leading up to the 24th?
- l33tman 6y ago
  There is no real "collapse" in numbers, the number of hospital cases have been in a (noisy) straight line down from April and forwards: https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/ https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i... (the graph with "Antal vtf" on the y-axis). Those graphs are directly from the hospital reporting systems.
cies 6y ago
Tegnell reflected on mistakes in his approach. News that was quickly rephrased as "Wrong approach admitted" (e.g. by Bloomberg). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-sweden-coronavirus-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-s... That's more than we can say for US/China. They keep up the appearance of being "the best". While the approach of Sweden was much more measured and transparent in my opinion. Also, Sweden left it's constitution in full effect. Most countries did not, which I find VERY problematic. Constitutions should be pandemic proof.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  Sorry, which countries ditched their constitutions during COVID?
  - petre 6y ago
    Here's a list of countries with HR abuses during the pandemic. Most democratic contries have Human Rights provisions in their constutions. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_issues_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_issues_related_... Most European states, including Russia have also signed the European Convention on Human Rights.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      China, Poland, Turkey, Turkmenistan... All of these countries had troubling human rights issues pre-COVID.
      - p1esk 6y ago
        Poland had HR issues?
        ceejayoz 6y ago
        Absolutely. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/27/it-could-soon-be-a-crime-to-blame-poland-for-nazi-atrocities-and-israel-is-appalled/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/27... > Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki spoke by phone Sunday and agreed to open a dialogue to avoid further diplomatic fallout following Poland’s initial approval of a law making it a criminal offense to mention Polish complicity in crimes committed during the Holocaust. I believe they backtracked a bit on that one after the outcry. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_ideology-free_zone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_ideology-free_zone > An "LGBT-free zone" (Polish: Strefa wolna od LGBT) also referred to as "LGBT free zone" (Polish: Strefa wolna od LGBT) refers to some regions of Poland which have declared themselves unwelcoming of an alleged "LGBT ideology." As of June 2020, some 100 municipalities (including five voivodships), encompassing about a third of the country, declared themselves "LGBT-free zones".

manojlds 6y ago

You are also describing reasons why Sweden went for this strategy - their availability of space, limited physical contact etc. The argument is whether the strategy is working or not for Sweden vs a full lockdown in Sweden and not whether Sweden's strategy would have worked in other countries.

black_puppydog 6y ago
This would be okay if the strategy was explicitly "we will let people die and then hope that everything goes well once everyone's outdoors in summer." At least then people would honestly debate whether that's a morally/economically solid stance to take. But in that case they'll also have to explain what their strategy will be at the end of summer.
- Ma8ee 6y ago
  They have been very transparent what the strategy is. Long term, since this won’t go away in just a few months the restrictions must be sustainable. Take into account the overall health and well-being of the people, don’t worry only about COVID-19. Only do what there are scientific evidence that it actually makes a difference. Make sure that the spread is slow enough so the health care system doesn’t get overwhelmed.
  - mixmastamyk 6y ago
    > Take into account the overall health and well-being This is a very concise way of putting what some believe is the best plan, thanks.
- whydoyoucare 6y ago
  I don't think there is any clear or morally unambiguous answer to the first part ("we will let people die"). It simply is either people die now of virus, or die later of economic fallout. Also see the Trolley Problem [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem

makomk 6y ago

I'd say that the fact that Sweden still had the same level of restrictions as they previously had is proof that their approach is working exactly as intended - the people behind it have long said that the goal isn't to push for herd immunity, but to impose measures that are sustainable in the long term rather than a short-term lockdown. Especially since many of the countries that have locked down and then opened up are seeing a resurgence of the disease, and their definition of opening up is sometimes as strict or stricter than Sweden's rules (for example, the UK bans gatherings of over 30 people and restricts restaurants and bars to table service only, amongst many other restrictions).

imartin2k 6y ago
The UK is a bad example, cause they have been doing worse than Sweden in every regard. There are plenty of countries in Europe which have much more relaxed limits now, for example Germany, Switzerland or the Czech Republic. Probably the other Nordic countries too (I'm not entirely sure about the latest there though).
- hedora 6y ago
  According to: https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden Germany is currently socially distancing at a similar rate as Sweden. They previously had stricter social distancing and have far fewer per-capita infections and deaths, but the model says they’ll hit a nasty second wave in mid October. Time will tell whether Sweden’s bet pays off in the long term.
  - Semaphor 6y ago
    Our (Germany) rates are actually somewhat surprising to me. We seem to generally have done very well when compared to other (European) countries of similar density.
  - lbeltrame 6y ago
    > but the model says they’ll hit a nasty second wave in mid October. I am wary of modeling "that far" in time, because while vaccines may take a little more to get ready, there are plenty of trials starting or going on for pharmacological treatments, which may give readouts as early as September. While perhaps they won't be able to avoid infections, they might change clinical management significantly, in particular monoclonal antibodies.

black_puppydog 6y ago

Yeah I also noticed lately that the numbers collapsed after a peak on June 24th. The people being diagnosed on the 24th should have been infected just about on midsummer. And then the numbers collapsed. That matches extremely well my experience that after midsummer (June 21st) most Swedes clear out the cities, going to summer houses or abroad or, failing that, being outdoors as much as possible. So I was "surprised" to not even see that fact be mentioned in the article and would be cautious about attributing this to the Swedish strategy. Did they make any policy changes in the days leading up to the 24th?

l33tman 6y ago
There is no real "collapse" in numbers, the number of hospital cases have been in a (noisy) straight line down from April and forwards: https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/ https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i... (the graph with "Antal vtf" on the y-axis). Those graphs are directly from the hospital reporting systems.

cies 6y ago

Tegnell reflected on mistakes in his approach. News that was quickly rephrased as "Wrong approach admitted" (e.g. by Bloomberg). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-sweden-coronavirus-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-s... That's more than we can say for US/China. They keep up the appearance of being "the best". While the approach of Sweden was much more measured and transparent in my opinion. Also, Sweden left it's constitution in full effect. Most countries did not, which I find VERY problematic. Constitutions should be pandemic proof.

ceejayoz 6y ago
Sorry, which countries ditched their constitutions during COVID?
- petre 6y ago
  Here's a list of countries with HR abuses during the pandemic. Most democratic contries have Human Rights provisions in their constutions. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_issues_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_issues_related_... Most European states, including Russia have also signed the European Convention on Human Rights.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    China, Poland, Turkey, Turkmenistan... All of these countries had troubling human rights issues pre-COVID.
    - p1esk 6y ago
      Poland had HR issues?
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        Absolutely. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/27/it-could-soon-be-a-crime-to-blame-poland-for-nazi-atrocities-and-israel-is-appalled/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/27... > Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki spoke by phone Sunday and agreed to open a dialogue to avoid further diplomatic fallout following Poland’s initial approval of a law making it a criminal offense to mention Polish complicity in crimes committed during the Holocaust. I believe they backtracked a bit on that one after the outcry. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_ideology-free_zone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_ideology-free_zone > An "LGBT-free zone" (Polish: Strefa wolna od LGBT) also referred to as "LGBT free zone" (Polish: Strefa wolna od LGBT) refers to some regions of Poland which have declared themselves unwelcoming of an alleged "LGBT ideology." As of June 2020, some 100 municipalities (including five voivodships), encompassing about a third of the country, declared themselves "LGBT-free zones".