4 ms·

Does falling death rates really indicate widespread immunity? I'd like to see the randomized immunology tests to back that up (maybe he has them, but this artic

by tgb 6y ago

Does falling death rates really indicate widespread immunity? I'd like to see the randomized immunology tests to back that up (maybe he has them, but this article doesn't indicate it). I haven't heard of anywhere near herd-immunity levels yet.

DangerousPie 6y ago
Yeah, this sounds like an assertion that is entirely based on wishful thinking rather than evidence. Don't get me wrong, it might be true -- but you really need to provide some evidence if you're going to make claims like that.
- oxymoron 6y ago
  https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/science.abc6810 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/scie... It’s at least plausible. The traditional definition of herd immunity assumes a homogenous population as the term has mainly been used in a vaccine strategy context. The above paper revises the definition based on a heterogenous model with the conclusion that the dynamics may be quite different in an actual epidemic.
Reimersholme 6y ago
According to FHM (Swedens CDC), they believe there is around 40% immunity in the Stockholm area (which has had the most spread in Sweden) currently. https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/9vyO8M/40-procent-av-stockholmarna-kan-ha-immunitet-mot-corona https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/9vyO8M/40-procent-av-st...
dariosalvi78 6y ago
antibodies tests shows the opposite, but antibodies do not explain immunity fully (T cells have an important role as well)
Kiro 6y ago
The 40% immunity number (antibodies + t-cell) is based on randomized immunology tests.
- tgb 6y ago
  What 40% immunity number? I don't see that in the article here.
- dariosalvi78 6y ago
  where does this 40% come from, do you have the source?
gridlockd 6y ago
Herd immunity just means that the R factors drops to one without any mitigating measures. Right now, Sweden has an R around one, without any enforced mitigation. Of course people's behavior still makes a difference. That, to me, indicates widespread immunity, even if there is no herd immunity by definition.

by tgb 6y ago

DangerousPie 6y ago

Yeah, this sounds like an assertion that is entirely based on wishful thinking rather than evidence. Don't get me wrong, it might be true -- but you really need to provide some evidence if you're going to make claims like that.

oxymoron 6y ago
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/science.abc6810 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/scie... It’s at least plausible. The traditional definition of herd immunity assumes a homogenous population as the term has mainly been used in a vaccine strategy context. The above paper revises the definition based on a heterogenous model with the conclusion that the dynamics may be quite different in an actual epidemic.

Reimersholme 6y ago

According to FHM (Swedens CDC), they believe there is around 40% immunity in the Stockholm area (which has had the most spread in Sweden) currently. https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/9vyO8M/40-procent-av-stockholmarna-kan-ha-immunitet-mot-corona https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/9vyO8M/40-procent-av-st...

dariosalvi78 6y ago

antibodies tests shows the opposite, but antibodies do not explain immunity fully (T cells have an important role as well)

Kiro 6y ago

The 40% immunity number (antibodies + t-cell) is based on randomized immunology tests.

tgb 6y ago
What 40% immunity number? I don't see that in the article here.
dariosalvi78 6y ago
where does this 40% come from, do you have the source?

gridlockd 6y ago

Herd immunity just means that the R factors drops to one without any mitigating measures. Right now, Sweden has an R around one, without any enforced mitigation. Of course people's behavior still makes a difference. That, to me, indicates widespread immunity, even if there is no herd immunity by definition.