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It's not clear how Sweden's strategy is working compared to other Nordic countries. Norway has at the time of writing 255 deaths, Sweden 5646, and 19 vs 769 new

by dgut 6y ago

It's not clear how Sweden's strategy is working compared to other Nordic countries. Norway has at the time of writing 255 deaths, Sweden 5646, and 19 vs 769 new cases today.[1][2] Norwegians are more or less back to normal life. Economically, Sweden did far worse than Norway as of 25. of June, with 25% more bankruptcies than previous year - same period - vs only 6.5% increase in Norway.[3] [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/ [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ [3] https://e24.no/naeringsliv/i/AdjrvM/svenskene-fikk-konkursrush-selv-om-de-ikke-stengte-landet https://e24.no/naeringsliv/i/AdjrvM/svenskene-fikk-konkursru...

glofish 6y ago
Don't you think Sweden would have done even worse had they locked down? This argument that hey look Sweden is still doing badly is ludicrous. Of course they do badly, no country is unaffected, Sweden is more industrialized and depends more on exports than Norway. Norway has a 1 trillion dollar stock market reserve from the oil. They will do fine. The idea that locking down would have made things better in Sweden is absurd.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  > Don't you think Sweden would have done even worse had they locked down? I mean, we've only got all the other Nordic countries to compare against to evaluate this...
  - glofish 6y ago
    This dodges the question that I posed. Let me ask again: Are you arguing that Sweden would have done better economically if they locked down? Because that is what we are talking about.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      No, I'm arguing Sweden saw the same economic damage - because people aren't stupid, and avoided doing the things a formal lockdown would have restricted anyways - without the infection control benefits of a formally managed one. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-c...
      - glofish 6y ago
        That's the absurdity right there. Saying that no lockdowns cause the same damage as full lockdown. When it comes to coronavirus NYT is no different then Fox News, they are looking stuff up in their gut, ignoring all evidence, pushing a narrative based on a preconceived notion. Why does the NYT not state how surprising is that the caseload in Sweden did not spiral out of control, and is actually decreasing? Regardless of what the death rate is (which is still much lower than many other European countries) it was and is completely at odds to the narrative of epidemics control. A balanced, fair journalist would state that.
        ceejayoz 6y ago
        > Saying that no lockdowns cause the same damage as full lockdown. It's borne out by various bits of evidence; most people wind up DIYing their own lockdown, even if the government doesn't order it. Restaurant reservation numbers dropped dramatically before the first lockdowns, for example, and didn't jump back up to normal in states that reopened early. https://www.latimes.com/food/story/2020-03-14/restaurant-reservations-coronavirus-decline https://www.latimes.com/food/story/2020-03-14/restaurant-res... https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/19/american-restaurants-are-struggling-to-fill-tables-weeks-after-reopening https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/19/american... The benefit of a formal lockdown is enforcement for the small proportion of people who YOLO things.
        glofish 6y ago
        None of are indicative of what happened in Sweden. Nor are indicative to what happens after a lockdown is imposed. It boggles my mind that you are still arguing that restaurant reservations would drop the same (and stay the same for months) with or without a lockdown. Why is the lockdown necessary then? You are just pushing a preconceived notion here.
  - hkeide 6y ago
    The Scandinavian countries are actually quite different economically with regards to e.g. which industries represent most of their GDP. Since they are so small they are not very diversified. They're smaller than many US states and most people wouldn't make claims like this comparing those.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      > They're smaller than many US states and most people wouldn't make claims like this comparing those. People absolutely would, should, and do. Right now, the contrast between New York and Florida on reopening policy is pretty clear, despite differences in their economies.
Kiro 6y ago
For a contrary view regarding the economy: https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/sweden-coronavirus-economy-relaxed-lockdown-stronger-rest-of-europe-2020-7-1029415101 https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/sweden-coronavi...
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  From that article: > A report from the research firm Capital Economics published on Tuesday found that the Swedish economy was the least harmed in Europe, describing it as the "best of a bad bunch." > Though Sweden was not immune to the pandemic's economic impact, it was the only major economy to grow in the first quarter of the year, the report noted. Can you explain how Sweden's performance in the first quarter has anything to do with Covid? Most of the lockdowns happened at the end of the first quarter and lasted for most of the second quarter. Maybe I'm missing something but it sounds like they are grasping at straws there when more accurate data shows the opposite picture.
hkeide 6y ago
As a Norwegian I don't trust a Norwegian newspaper to be anywhere near impartial with regards to the economic question. I also think it's hard to compare Norway and Sweden economically given the amount of money spent on stimulus by Norway this year because of "the oil". Are the Covid deaths counted the same way? It seems for example that Sweden are very aggressive with labeling a death as Covid and e.g. Finland are undercounting. The number of cases seems more clear cut, and I agree that it's not clear that the strategy either failed or succeeded. Just pointing out some potential pitfalls comparing even these two relatively similar countries.
- matsemann 6y ago
  Look at my sibling comment to yours ref counting deaths. From the source [1] Finland didn't have nearly as high spike in overall deaths as Sweden (see Z-scores) [1]: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
- dgut 6y ago
  Unless you have reliable information about Sweden exaggerating the number of Covid deaths, I can't see the argument. Even if Sweden wrongly labelled 25% as Covid deaths, that's still a significantly larger number population size taken into account. The bankruptcy numbers aren't a matter of opinion, these are public numbers that are regularly published by each respective country.
  - hkeide 6y ago
    I didn't claim you made up the bankruptcy numbers. I just pointed out the economies are different. We are discussing a strategy for dealing with the virus, not who has the most money. If you've been to Scandinavia you will know who has the most money. Exaggerating is a strong word. I don't think any two countries count deaths in the same way however.
- mubar 6y ago
  As a Finn, I would be very interested to hear what are the sources for your claim that Finland are undercounting Covid-19 deaths. Further, could you elaborate in which way you claim Finland to be undercounting, such as Covid-19 deaths outside hospital setting, and is the undercounting supposed to be a country-wide policy, or limited to some specific regions? Also what is the source for your claim about Sweden being very eager to label deaths as Covid-19? The excess death counts published by NY Times and Economist show only Belgium overcounting, and Sweden with more excess deaths than official Covid-19 deaths. If anything, Sweden's official total is unfortunately still missing hundreds of deaths, more than have died of Covid-19 in Finland or in Norway altogether.
matsemann 6y ago
Lots of people also say that Sweden's numbers are higher, because they count covid deaths differently. But looking at the number of deaths for this period compared to baseline [0], the number of deaths really spiked. While Denmark and Norway had overall normal numbers. [0]: https://i.imgur.com/a2JEZ4j.png https://i.imgur.com/a2JEZ4j.png
- hkeide 6y ago
  Do you think it's possible that since more people have had the virus in Sweden, they are "through" to the other side while Norway isn't? How would that affect the excess death number?
  - matsemann 6y ago
    I wouldn't know. But that's part of Tegnell's argument, yes. That when the second wave hits or this just goes on for years, Sweden will be better off. Hard to say right now, I think. 20/20.
thendrill 6y ago
You can not compare Sweden and Norway... Especially economically. Sweden is an industrial country and has been for the last 60 years. Sweden economical status is very dependent on export and supply-demand. Norway on the other side was the poorest country in Europe 60 years ago. All that changed when they found oil. Norway has practically an endless well saved exactly for this kinda of case where they can just throw money at the problem until it goes away. Also Sweden and Norway are similar in size, but Norway is only half the population and most of that population is very rural in comparison to Sweden.

by dgut 6y ago

glofish 6y ago

Don't you think Sweden would have done even worse had they locked down? This argument that hey look Sweden is still doing badly is ludicrous. Of course they do badly, no country is unaffected, Sweden is more industrialized and depends more on exports than Norway. Norway has a 1 trillion dollar stock market reserve from the oil. They will do fine. The idea that locking down would have made things better in Sweden is absurd.

ceejayoz 6y ago
> Don't you think Sweden would have done even worse had they locked down? I mean, we've only got all the other Nordic countries to compare against to evaluate this...
- glofish 6y ago
  This dodges the question that I posed. Let me ask again: Are you arguing that Sweden would have done better economically if they locked down? Because that is what we are talking about.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    No, I'm arguing Sweden saw the same economic damage - because people aren't stupid, and avoided doing the things a formal lockdown would have restricted anyways - without the infection control benefits of a formally managed one. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-c...
    - glofish 6y ago
      That's the absurdity right there. Saying that no lockdowns cause the same damage as full lockdown. When it comes to coronavirus NYT is no different then Fox News, they are looking stuff up in their gut, ignoring all evidence, pushing a narrative based on a preconceived notion. Why does the NYT not state how surprising is that the caseload in Sweden did not spiral out of control, and is actually decreasing? Regardless of what the death rate is (which is still much lower than many other European countries) it was and is completely at odds to the narrative of epidemics control. A balanced, fair journalist would state that.
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        > Saying that no lockdowns cause the same damage as full lockdown. It's borne out by various bits of evidence; most people wind up DIYing their own lockdown, even if the government doesn't order it. Restaurant reservation numbers dropped dramatically before the first lockdowns, for example, and didn't jump back up to normal in states that reopened early. https://www.latimes.com/food/story/2020-03-14/restaurant-reservations-coronavirus-decline https://www.latimes.com/food/story/2020-03-14/restaurant-res... https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/19/american-restaurants-are-struggling-to-fill-tables-weeks-after-reopening https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/19/american... The benefit of a formal lockdown is enforcement for the small proportion of people who YOLO things.
        glofish 6y ago
        None of are indicative of what happened in Sweden. Nor are indicative to what happens after a lockdown is imposed. It boggles my mind that you are still arguing that restaurant reservations would drop the same (and stay the same for months) with or without a lockdown. Why is the lockdown necessary then? You are just pushing a preconceived notion here.
- hkeide 6y ago
  The Scandinavian countries are actually quite different economically with regards to e.g. which industries represent most of their GDP. Since they are so small they are not very diversified. They're smaller than many US states and most people wouldn't make claims like this comparing those.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    > They're smaller than many US states and most people wouldn't make claims like this comparing those. People absolutely would, should, and do. Right now, the contrast between New York and Florida on reopening policy is pretty clear, despite differences in their economies.

Kiro 6y ago

For a contrary view regarding the economy: https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/sweden-coronavirus-economy-relaxed-lockdown-stronger-rest-of-europe-2020-7-1029415101 https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/sweden-coronavi...

DangerousPie 6y ago
From that article: > A report from the research firm Capital Economics published on Tuesday found that the Swedish economy was the least harmed in Europe, describing it as the "best of a bad bunch." > Though Sweden was not immune to the pandemic's economic impact, it was the only major economy to grow in the first quarter of the year, the report noted. Can you explain how Sweden's performance in the first quarter has anything to do with Covid? Most of the lockdowns happened at the end of the first quarter and lasted for most of the second quarter. Maybe I'm missing something but it sounds like they are grasping at straws there when more accurate data shows the opposite picture.

hkeide 6y ago

As a Norwegian I don't trust a Norwegian newspaper to be anywhere near impartial with regards to the economic question. I also think it's hard to compare Norway and Sweden economically given the amount of money spent on stimulus by Norway this year because of "the oil". Are the Covid deaths counted the same way? It seems for example that Sweden are very aggressive with labeling a death as Covid and e.g. Finland are undercounting. The number of cases seems more clear cut, and I agree that it's not clear that the strategy either failed or succeeded. Just pointing out some potential pitfalls comparing even these two relatively similar countries.

matsemann 6y ago
Look at my sibling comment to yours ref counting deaths. From the source [1] Finland didn't have nearly as high spike in overall deaths as Sweden (see Z-scores) [1]: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
dgut 6y ago
Unless you have reliable information about Sweden exaggerating the number of Covid deaths, I can't see the argument. Even if Sweden wrongly labelled 25% as Covid deaths, that's still a significantly larger number population size taken into account. The bankruptcy numbers aren't a matter of opinion, these are public numbers that are regularly published by each respective country.
- hkeide 6y ago
  I didn't claim you made up the bankruptcy numbers. I just pointed out the economies are different. We are discussing a strategy for dealing with the virus, not who has the most money. If you've been to Scandinavia you will know who has the most money. Exaggerating is a strong word. I don't think any two countries count deaths in the same way however.
mubar 6y ago
As a Finn, I would be very interested to hear what are the sources for your claim that Finland are undercounting Covid-19 deaths. Further, could you elaborate in which way you claim Finland to be undercounting, such as Covid-19 deaths outside hospital setting, and is the undercounting supposed to be a country-wide policy, or limited to some specific regions? Also what is the source for your claim about Sweden being very eager to label deaths as Covid-19? The excess death counts published by NY Times and Economist show only Belgium overcounting, and Sweden with more excess deaths than official Covid-19 deaths. If anything, Sweden's official total is unfortunately still missing hundreds of deaths, more than have died of Covid-19 in Finland or in Norway altogether.

matsemann 6y ago

Lots of people also say that Sweden's numbers are higher, because they count covid deaths differently. But looking at the number of deaths for this period compared to baseline [0], the number of deaths really spiked. While Denmark and Norway had overall normal numbers. [0]: https://i.imgur.com/a2JEZ4j.png https://i.imgur.com/a2JEZ4j.png

hkeide 6y ago
Do you think it's possible that since more people have had the virus in Sweden, they are "through" to the other side while Norway isn't? How would that affect the excess death number?
- matsemann 6y ago
  I wouldn't know. But that's part of Tegnell's argument, yes. That when the second wave hits or this just goes on for years, Sweden will be better off. Hard to say right now, I think. 20/20.

thendrill 6y ago

You can not compare Sweden and Norway... Especially economically. Sweden is an industrial country and has been for the last 60 years. Sweden economical status is very dependent on export and supply-demand. Norway on the other side was the poorest country in Europe 60 years ago. All that changed when they found oil. Norway has practically an endless well saved exactly for this kinda of case where they can just throw money at the problem until it goes away. Also Sweden and Norway are similar in size, but Norway is only half the population and most of that population is very rural in comparison to Sweden.