4 ms·
The problem is they had a higher death rate than the neighbors on the same timeline. Oh and their economy also suffered just as bad as neighbors who locked down
by jjuel 6y ago
The problem is they had a higher death rate than the neighbors on the same timeline. Oh and their economy also suffered just as bad as neighbors who locked down. Not sure how it could be a success with more deaths and everything else being the same.
- lostapathy 6y agoBut maybe Sweden is done having excess mortality where other countries still have a ways to go?
- jeromegv 6y agoHow can you possibly predict the future that way? Why would Sweden be done and not the other countries?
- gridlockd 6y agoImmunity. I think the numbers show that countries who don't have a second wave had a strong first wave, where the lockdown came too late. Examples: Italy, France, Germany Then you have countries that had a strict lockdown on time, which resulted in rising rates as soon as lockdown was lifted. Examples: Israel, Hong Kong, Singapore Having said that, the latter countries do seem to fare better than the former, second wave or not.
- lostapathy 6y agoI'm not trying to predict the future, I'm just saying it's possible. At the same time, it's not possible at this time to declare "sweden's strategy has failed" - there's plenty of time for other countries to catch up on excess mortality. I do think there's a very real chance that, assuming hospitals are not overwhelmed, there won't be a lot of difference in overall mortality between developed countries. This disease is, apparently, super infectious after all, and eradication seems unlikely.
- jjuel 6y agoI wasn't saying it was a failure, but that it is hard to call it a success. Again I think we will need to wait a while to determine true successes or failures (although I think here in the US it is trending towards being a tremendous failure).
- hedora 6y ago> * How can you possibly predict the future that way?* 100% of pre-vaccine, pre-containment pandemics ended in herd immunity. The science is clear. If left alone, COVID-19 would rapidly burn itself out (and take about 0.5% of the population with it).
- DanBC 6y agoSmallpox? Polio? Ebola? None of these ended with "herd immunity" Before vaccination measles epidemics happened every few years, killing over 2 million people each year. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/measles https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/measles > Before the introduction of measles vaccine in 1963 and widespread vaccination, major epidemics occurred approximately every 2–3 years and measles caused an estimated 2.6 million deaths each year. Where's the herd immunity to measles?
- ceejayoz 6y agoHerd immunity doesn't necessarily mean "fully prevents outbreaks". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#History > Herd immunity was first recognized as a naturally occurring phenomenon in the 1930s when A. W. Hedrich published research on the epidemiology of measles in Baltimore, and took notice that after many children had become immune to measles, the number of new infections temporarily decreased, including among susceptible children. (Measles is also fairly uniquely virulent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number)
- matz1 6y agoyes Sweden economy affected because their neighbors shutdown their economy but most likely it would have been even worse if Sweden did lockdown.