> To your coin-flip example, if you model a league in excel you'll find that elo actually results in a rank distribution very consistent with what your intuitio

> To your coin-flip example, if you model a league in excel you'll find that elo actually results in a rank distribution very consistent with what your intuition would expect (given enough players and enough matches, of course). This is incorrect. If you simulate Elo with a coin-flip, you'll get something that looks like this (11 players, 1000 matches): https://imgur.com/9O82pRj https://imgur.com/9O82pRj -- I think this will tend to a geometric distribution (not sure what the p is though, probably depends on the constants).