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The author of this post knows what "strong opinions, weakly held" means. They explain it in their own words, and take effort to explain the difference between t
by scott_s 6y ago
The author of this post knows what "strong opinions, weakly held" means. They explain it in their own words, and take effort to explain the difference between the catchphrase understanding and application of it versus the genuine application of its principles. The author also presents arguments as to why even the genuine application fall short, which I don't believe you responded to.
(If it seems I'm picking on you: yours is the top post in the comments, and I don't feel like you're engaging with the post beyond a surface level.)
- chillacy 6y agoTo go further, the Author also suggests an alternate technique along the lines of Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets and Superforecasting where probabilities are assigned to estimates. I had previously encountered such practice in Scott Alexander's blog and thought it clever: have skin in the game and keeping track of wins and losses. This whole section of the author's blog is very interesting. It goes into the US Intelligence Community's interest in superforecasters and the Good Judgement Project, a kind of elite tournament of forecasters. It talks about how superforecasters estimate by overcoming cognitive biases and questioning assumptions. And then it ultimately points out though that there are limits to forecasting and low probability events do occur all the time. https://commoncog.com/blog/the-forecasting-series/ https://commoncog.com/blog/the-forecasting-series/