2 ms·
Probability really doesn't help in a group context. In most cases you are pulling a number out of your ass, people don't have intuitive understanding of probabi
by solidasparagus 6y ago
Probability really doesn't help in a group context. In most cases you are pulling a number out of your ass, people don't have intuitive understanding of probability* , and it implies a level of certainty in the likelihood of an outcome that doesn't exist (which leads to bad decisions because you are building on a faulty basis).
*look at how many people consider Trump's election impossible when the odds clearly indicated he had a non-negligible chance of success.
- smileypete 6y agoMaybe a deliberate focus on having some 'out of band' information would help, as an antidote to group-think. A good example would be the early attitudes to face masking from the governments, medical experts, and media of certain countries. Some recognition and consideration of the deep experience and expertise of medical experts in Asia countries where SARS occured could surely have saved many lives.