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the worst predictions are 6.7% lost GDP growth over 15 years (note: GDP growth, not actual GDP) or around 0.35% a year, which isn't going to make the UK into a

the worst predictions are 6.7% lost GDP growth over 15 years (note: GDP growth, not actual GDP) or around 0.35% a year, which isn't going to make the UK into a poor nation (and if Scotland, NI and Wales left it then England's would skyrocket) meanwhile, in reality: the virus has knocked 20% off actual GDP in 4 months

rwmj 6y ago
A bit more than that actually: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-significantly-worse-off-under-all-brexit-scenarios-official-forecast-gdp https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-signific... We don't really know what the second-order effects will be, such as the brightest people moving abroad and companies permanently closing or leaving, as well as the general loss of influence. I expect that we'll regain the 20% fairly quickly once the virus threat abates, but the Brexit loses are a permanent drag. Anyway as I said in my comment above, we don't fully know, but we're sure going to find out soon enough.
- blibble 6y ago
  the exact same story a year later says 6.7%: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/uk-lost-gdp-growth-brexit-deal-passed-official-estimates https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/uk-lost-gdp... > We don't really know what the second-order effects will be, such as the brightest people moving abroad and companies permanently closing or leaving, as well as the general loss of influence. so what do you think they were modelling? nothing at all? > I expect that we'll regain the 20% fairly quickly once the virus threat abates, but the Brexit loses are a permanent drag. a reduction in growth is not a overall loss, sorry
tonyedgecombe 6y ago
You can still be poorer with constant GDP if the exchange rates have moved against you. That holiday in France I'm about to book got more expensive as a direct consequence of Brexit. The same goes for everything else we import (which is a lot).

rwmj 6y ago

A bit more than that actually: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-significantly-worse-off-under-all-brexit-scenarios-official-forecast-gdp https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-signific... We don't really know what the second-order effects will be, such as the brightest people moving abroad and companies permanently closing or leaving, as well as the general loss of influence. I expect that we'll regain the 20% fairly quickly once the virus threat abates, but the Brexit loses are a permanent drag. Anyway as I said in my comment above, we don't fully know, but we're sure going to find out soon enough.

blibble 6y ago
the exact same story a year later says 6.7%: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/uk-lost-gdp-growth-brexit-deal-passed-official-estimates https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/uk-lost-gdp... > We don't really know what the second-order effects will be, such as the brightest people moving abroad and companies permanently closing or leaving, as well as the general loss of influence. so what do you think they were modelling? nothing at all? > I expect that we'll regain the 20% fairly quickly once the virus threat abates, but the Brexit loses are a permanent drag. a reduction in growth is not a overall loss, sorry

tonyedgecombe 6y ago

You can still be poorer with constant GDP if the exchange rates have moved against you. That holiday in France I'm about to book got more expensive as a direct consequence of Brexit. The same goes for everything else we import (which is a lot).