For me the „strong opinion weakly held“ is a way of mental prototyping: > Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is

For me the „strong opinion weakly held“ is a way of mental prototyping: > Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is the “strong opinion” part. Then – and this is the “weakly held” part – prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesn’t fit, or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction. Eventually your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. You will be surprised by how quickly the sequence of faulty forecasts will deliver you to a useful result. The author of the blog post however finds failure with it for guiding investments gradually, it failing when new information is discovered along the way. But that isn‘t the purpose, to guide one in small day to day adjustments. The purpose is to explore a not well known landscape for strategic decision making. To gather enough solid non trivial insight to make a well founded strategic decision. There are better tools for operational management once one has committed to a direction. Strong opinions help me often to escape analysis paralysis. It also helps me to surface my premature judgements and transcend them.