7 ms·

Good luck with the negotiations. I guess Albania and North Macedonia have a always had lot more goodwill on the EU side, ever since the idea of them joining the

Good luck with the negotiations. I guess Albania and North Macedonia have a always had lot more goodwill on the EU side, ever since the idea of them joining the EU was floated, than the UK will ever have again.

te_chris 6y ago
Nah, they'll want the budget contributions back. Also, as much as I think Brexit is a complete waste, it doesn't have to be a disaster either - although this govt. seems hellbent on making it one. By the time the UK comes to reconsider joining or similar, things will have moved.
- normalnorm 6y ago
  > Nah, they'll want the budget contributions back. Also: "The German car industry will demand it", "The EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU", etc. All of this has been falsified in the last four years. The integrity of the single market and of the European project is turning out to be much more valuable to EU member states than the highly rebated UK contributions.
  - te_chris 6y ago
    As I said, I'm on the side against brexit, but what you're saying is not true. The EU is struggling massively with this current budget round and the loss of the UK contribution seems to legitimately be causing problems. The shit about BMW's and Prosecco was just nationalist bollocks, but that doesn't mean that the loss of the UK budget contribution isn't real. Likely end outcome is EU budget struggles a bit for a few years, then UK rejoins as an associate or whatever new category they come up with.
    - trekrich 6y ago
      The EU project needs to come to an end, and the sooner the better. Its an outdated dictatorship that needs to go.
      - normalnorm 6y ago
        The European Council is made of the democratically elected Heads of State of each Member State. The European Council nominates the president of the European Comission, which again has one member per Member State. The European Parliament, which is composed of MEPs directly elected by the citizens of each member state, must ratify all nominations. The directly elected European Parliament has veto power on European Comission decisions, and so has every Member State. A state can only join the EU by virtue of a democratic decision according to the constitution of the Member State itself, and there are strong requirements on prospective Member States to be themselves proper democracies with separation of powers in order to be allowed to join. Granted, these requirements have been slightly overlooked when it came to the UK: the House of Lords is undemocratic, one could say outdated, and would almost certainly not be tolerated in any other candidate state. So, the EU might be complex, but in what sense exactly is it undemocratic?
        trekrich 6y ago
        how does the normal citizen vote for the president of the European Commission? How do we vote them out if we dont like their governance anymore?
        dragonwriter 6y ago
        > how does the normal citizen vote for the president of the European Commission? How do we vote them out if we dont like their governance anymore? As is the case with the chief executive in most parliamentary systems, by voting for an MP (in the case, MEP) of the party which backs their preferred (or opposes their opposed) candidate for leader.
        trekrich 6y ago
        ok so we have an MEP in parliament. But MEPs, can't initiate legislation, only approve it. The EU parliament is arguably the only parliament in the world where members of parliament are not allowed to make laws or initiate legislation. The institution that actually makes the laws in the EU is not the democratically elected members of parliament, but the unelected European Commissioners. This is the issue with the EU. Its a special club at the top, and the people who we can vote for don't really have any say in any of it. That alone is the best reason for it to go!
    - normalnorm 6y ago
      Sorry, I didn't mean to sound aggressive against you, even if you were of a different opinion. I am a bit tired of all the disinformation on this topic, I highly value the European project -- it is not perfect but my life would be so much poorer without it -- so I can get a bit emotional. I have also been an anglophile since I can remember, so I am quite disappointed with the UK. I think I'm not alone in this. Regarding the budget round: my impression is that the struggle comes from the situation caused by covid more than anything else. Brexit became a niche interest in the EU, most people are not paying attention or really care about it anymore. Notice that the contribution of the UK after rebates amounted to 9 billion euros, in comparison to a yearly EU budget of about 165 billion euros, which is in itself 1% of the EU's GDP. While I am sure that the EU misses that contribution, I find it hard to believe that it is a huge problem.
    - throwaway122kk 6y ago
      Loss of UK means 10 euro a year less per every person left in eu27. You wildly overstating UKs contribution. It's peanuts compared to what Covid has caused
oblio 6y ago
It doesn't work like that. EU state populations overwhelmingly like rich countries over poor ones. Including poor countries is a geostrategic decision with little low-level support from people. Switzerland, Norway, Iceland would be welcome with open arms, they just don't want to join. The baggage caused by the UK will dissipate in 5-10 years or so and at the end of the day, the UK is comparatively rich by EU standards.
- normalnorm 6y ago
  > The baggage caused by the UK will dissipate in 5-10 years or so This is quite optimistic. I'm not sure if you live in the EU, but the UK severely tainted its image and destroyed all good-will with most powerful EU member states. In less than 5 years, it went from being a highly respected member and culture, with a reputation for pragmatism and seriousness, to a sad joke and an object of scorn with a bad after-taste of good old-fashioned xenophobia. More objectively: if you study the history of the EU, you will see that this "baggage" is quite old. For quite some time in the 70s vetoed UK's accession (to the then EEC), precisely because it feared that the UK was only interested in economic benefits and would sabotage any other aspect of the European project. That is more or less what happened when the UK eventually joined, and the EU had to build around the UK (Schengen, Euro, etc.). It is true that the EU likes rich countries, but it is also true that things are far from being as simple as you describe. Interesting detail: you mention Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. They are members of EFTA. EFTA was created by the UK during the time that they were not able to join the EEC. After Brexit was decided, the UK tried to rejoin EFTA, and they were refused. So being rich is not enough once you become sufficiently toxic. Due to the situation after WWII, the UK was given special treatment. It was allowed to opt-out of most things, and it was given extraordinary rebates for its contributions to the EU budget. Should the UK wish to rejoin, it would have to accept Schengen, the Euro, no more rebates and the "ever closer union" political commitment spelled out in the treaties. I find it very hard to believe that the UK would accept such things in our lifetimes, and I find it very hard to believe that the EU would be willing to put up with the current circus that is UK politics and media in the forseable future. The UK government is now talking about not honoring the Withdrawal Agreement if there is no Free Trade Deal. Well, this means a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This means the return of violence to that region. Even if the UK honors the WA, it is quite likely that the situation will degrade to a point that this border comes back. That was the crux of the negotiations for the last 4 years between the EU and the UK, that everyone is now forgetting about. There are also other issues, like Gibraltar. I am afraid that heavier baggage will necessarily accumulate before it can even start to dissipate.

te_chris 6y ago

Nah, they'll want the budget contributions back. Also, as much as I think Brexit is a complete waste, it doesn't have to be a disaster either - although this govt. seems hellbent on making it one. By the time the UK comes to reconsider joining or similar, things will have moved.

normalnorm 6y ago
> Nah, they'll want the budget contributions back. Also: "The German car industry will demand it", "The EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU", etc. All of this has been falsified in the last four years. The integrity of the single market and of the European project is turning out to be much more valuable to EU member states than the highly rebated UK contributions.
- te_chris 6y ago
  As I said, I'm on the side against brexit, but what you're saying is not true. The EU is struggling massively with this current budget round and the loss of the UK contribution seems to legitimately be causing problems. The shit about BMW's and Prosecco was just nationalist bollocks, but that doesn't mean that the loss of the UK budget contribution isn't real. Likely end outcome is EU budget struggles a bit for a few years, then UK rejoins as an associate or whatever new category they come up with.
  - trekrich 6y ago
    The EU project needs to come to an end, and the sooner the better. Its an outdated dictatorship that needs to go.
    - normalnorm 6y ago
      The European Council is made of the democratically elected Heads of State of each Member State. The European Council nominates the president of the European Comission, which again has one member per Member State. The European Parliament, which is composed of MEPs directly elected by the citizens of each member state, must ratify all nominations. The directly elected European Parliament has veto power on European Comission decisions, and so has every Member State. A state can only join the EU by virtue of a democratic decision according to the constitution of the Member State itself, and there are strong requirements on prospective Member States to be themselves proper democracies with separation of powers in order to be allowed to join. Granted, these requirements have been slightly overlooked when it came to the UK: the House of Lords is undemocratic, one could say outdated, and would almost certainly not be tolerated in any other candidate state. So, the EU might be complex, but in what sense exactly is it undemocratic?
      - trekrich 6y ago
        how does the normal citizen vote for the president of the European Commission? How do we vote them out if we dont like their governance anymore?
        dragonwriter 6y ago
        > how does the normal citizen vote for the president of the European Commission? How do we vote them out if we dont like their governance anymore? As is the case with the chief executive in most parliamentary systems, by voting for an MP (in the case, MEP) of the party which backs their preferred (or opposes their opposed) candidate for leader.
        trekrich 6y ago
        ok so we have an MEP in parliament. But MEPs, can't initiate legislation, only approve it. The EU parliament is arguably the only parliament in the world where members of parliament are not allowed to make laws or initiate legislation. The institution that actually makes the laws in the EU is not the democratically elected members of parliament, but the unelected European Commissioners. This is the issue with the EU. Its a special club at the top, and the people who we can vote for don't really have any say in any of it. That alone is the best reason for it to go!
  - normalnorm 6y ago
    Sorry, I didn't mean to sound aggressive against you, even if you were of a different opinion. I am a bit tired of all the disinformation on this topic, I highly value the European project -- it is not perfect but my life would be so much poorer without it -- so I can get a bit emotional. I have also been an anglophile since I can remember, so I am quite disappointed with the UK. I think I'm not alone in this. Regarding the budget round: my impression is that the struggle comes from the situation caused by covid more than anything else. Brexit became a niche interest in the EU, most people are not paying attention or really care about it anymore. Notice that the contribution of the UK after rebates amounted to 9 billion euros, in comparison to a yearly EU budget of about 165 billion euros, which is in itself 1% of the EU's GDP. While I am sure that the EU misses that contribution, I find it hard to believe that it is a huge problem.
  - throwaway122kk 6y ago
    Loss of UK means 10 euro a year less per every person left in eu27. You wildly overstating UKs contribution. It's peanuts compared to what Covid has caused

oblio 6y ago

It doesn't work like that. EU state populations overwhelmingly like rich countries over poor ones. Including poor countries is a geostrategic decision with little low-level support from people. Switzerland, Norway, Iceland would be welcome with open arms, they just don't want to join. The baggage caused by the UK will dissipate in 5-10 years or so and at the end of the day, the UK is comparatively rich by EU standards.

normalnorm 6y ago
> The baggage caused by the UK will dissipate in 5-10 years or so This is quite optimistic. I'm not sure if you live in the EU, but the UK severely tainted its image and destroyed all good-will with most powerful EU member states. In less than 5 years, it went from being a highly respected member and culture, with a reputation for pragmatism and seriousness, to a sad joke and an object of scorn with a bad after-taste of good old-fashioned xenophobia. More objectively: if you study the history of the EU, you will see that this "baggage" is quite old. For quite some time in the 70s vetoed UK's accession (to the then EEC), precisely because it feared that the UK was only interested in economic benefits and would sabotage any other aspect of the European project. That is more or less what happened when the UK eventually joined, and the EU had to build around the UK (Schengen, Euro, etc.). It is true that the EU likes rich countries, but it is also true that things are far from being as simple as you describe. Interesting detail: you mention Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. They are members of EFTA. EFTA was created by the UK during the time that they were not able to join the EEC. After Brexit was decided, the UK tried to rejoin EFTA, and they were refused. So being rich is not enough once you become sufficiently toxic. Due to the situation after WWII, the UK was given special treatment. It was allowed to opt-out of most things, and it was given extraordinary rebates for its contributions to the EU budget. Should the UK wish to rejoin, it would have to accept Schengen, the Euro, no more rebates and the "ever closer union" political commitment spelled out in the treaties. I find it very hard to believe that the UK would accept such things in our lifetimes, and I find it very hard to believe that the EU would be willing to put up with the current circus that is UK politics and media in the forseable future. The UK government is now talking about not honoring the Withdrawal Agreement if there is no Free Trade Deal. Well, this means a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This means the return of violence to that region. Even if the UK honors the WA, it is quite likely that the situation will degrade to a point that this border comes back. That was the crux of the negotiations for the last 4 years between the EU and the UK, that everyone is now forgetting about. There are also other issues, like Gibraltar. I am afraid that heavier baggage will necessarily accumulate before it can even start to dissipate.