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What do you think the present-day cryptological equivalent of the Enigma machine and its decryption is? I’m most interested in examples of consequence (e.g. sav

What do you think the present-day cryptological equivalent of the Enigma machine and its decryption is? I’m most interested in examples of consequence (e.g. saving lives by shortening war) rather than comparisons of technical achievement.

upofadown 6y ago
Things are quite different these days. Code makers seem to have run far in advance of code breakers. Since there are no major wars running, if someone did break something significant they would save it for later.
- est31 6y ago
  And yet I feel we are living in the golden age of signals intelligence. The only reason to not say that is because trends point towards an even better golden age. Already the scale of the open source stuff out there has never existed before. And then add speculative stuff like saving encrypted content to decrypt it later decades down the line when methods and hardware have improved. Just a single insider can walk out with an USB stick full of the crown jewels of a place supposed to keep secrets... Pretty sure the US intelligence community didn't have records of basic data of each individual living in europe in WW2 times, but they certainly do now, simply thanks to electronic records systems collecting the data and them just having to harvest the data fruits whether it's by hacking or other means.
  - eru 6y ago
    Mostly, yes. Though for perspective: when engaged in a hot war you tend not to care too much about what your opponent can figure out in a few decades. Even enigma would have been mostly good enough, if the allies had taken a few weeks to decrypt each message. In peace time learning old secrets is comparatively more useful.
    - est31 6y ago
      > when engaged in a hot war you tend not to care too much about what your opponent can figure out in a few decades. IDK if the allies would have had a list of gay Germans from encrypted data they collected decades prior they could have used that data for extortion. Even if it took decades of progress, they'd have had ample time. The question is, does collecting data now put you into a better position than not having such collections. And the answer is maybe to yes. Even if it's just maybe it's probably worth the investment for the DoD.
      - 082349872349872 6y ago
        Did the NSDAP even bother to encrypt their little lists[1]? I'd thought they kept them in the clear, on IBM punched cards. For an interesting Paperclip-like connection to the founding of the BND, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Scherhorn#Aftermath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Scherhorn#Aftermath [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWo_3CIcTBQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWo_3CIcTBQ
      - eru 6y ago
        You are illustrating what I said about the advantages of long term projects in peace time. Yes.
Someone 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EncroChat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EncroChat: “EncroChat was a Europe-based communications network and service provider allegedly used by organized crime members to plan criminal activities. Police infiltrated the network between at least March and June 2020 during a Europe-wide investigation. An unidentified source associated with EncroChat announced on the night of 12–13 June 2020 that the company would cease operations because of the police operation. The service had around 60,000 subscribers at the time of its closure. At least 800 arrests have been made across Europe as of 7 July 2020”

upofadown 6y ago

Things are quite different these days. Code makers seem to have run far in advance of code breakers. Since there are no major wars running, if someone did break something significant they would save it for later.

est31 6y ago
And yet I feel we are living in the golden age of signals intelligence. The only reason to not say that is because trends point towards an even better golden age. Already the scale of the open source stuff out there has never existed before. And then add speculative stuff like saving encrypted content to decrypt it later decades down the line when methods and hardware have improved. Just a single insider can walk out with an USB stick full of the crown jewels of a place supposed to keep secrets... Pretty sure the US intelligence community didn't have records of basic data of each individual living in europe in WW2 times, but they certainly do now, simply thanks to electronic records systems collecting the data and them just having to harvest the data fruits whether it's by hacking or other means.
- eru 6y ago
  Mostly, yes. Though for perspective: when engaged in a hot war you tend not to care too much about what your opponent can figure out in a few decades. Even enigma would have been mostly good enough, if the allies had taken a few weeks to decrypt each message. In peace time learning old secrets is comparatively more useful.
  - est31 6y ago
    > when engaged in a hot war you tend not to care too much about what your opponent can figure out in a few decades. IDK if the allies would have had a list of gay Germans from encrypted data they collected decades prior they could have used that data for extortion. Even if it took decades of progress, they'd have had ample time. The question is, does collecting data now put you into a better position than not having such collections. And the answer is maybe to yes. Even if it's just maybe it's probably worth the investment for the DoD.
    - 082349872349872 6y ago
      Did the NSDAP even bother to encrypt their little lists[1]? I'd thought they kept them in the clear, on IBM punched cards. For an interesting Paperclip-like connection to the founding of the BND, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Scherhorn#Aftermath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Scherhorn#Aftermath [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWo_3CIcTBQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWo_3CIcTBQ
    - eru 6y ago
      You are illustrating what I said about the advantages of long term projects in peace time. Yes.

Someone 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EncroChat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EncroChat: “EncroChat was a Europe-based communications network and service provider allegedly used by organized crime members to plan criminal activities. Police infiltrated the network between at least March and June 2020 during a Europe-wide investigation. An unidentified source associated with EncroChat announced on the night of 12–13 June 2020 that the company would cease operations because of the police operation. The service had around 60,000 subscribers at the time of its closure. At least 800 arrests have been made across Europe as of 7 July 2020”