For those interested in past predictions as a track record, I found Scott's previous predictions here: 2018-2019: https://www.profgalloway.com/2019-predictions

For those interested in past predictions as a track record, I found Scott's previous predictions here: 2018-2019: https://www.profgalloway.com/2019-predictions https://www.profgalloway.com/2019-predictions 2019-2020: https://www.profgalloway.com/2020-predictions https://www.profgalloway.com/2020-predictions Though some of his predictions are shaky because they don't provide a timeline. Scott Alexander used to do predictions w/ deadlines + estimated probability. If all goes well you should be able to map your predictions on a perfect line, x axis representing estimated probability and y representing actual percentage which happened.