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> Now, given the UK example, if the vaccine causes 10 deaths, and 1000 severe reactions(ie hospitalised) thats still better than the 200k deaths and close to a

> Now, given the UK example, if the vaccine causes 10 deaths, and 1000 severe reactions(ie hospitalised) thats still better than the 200k deaths and close to a million cases with complications The anti vaccination optics, of a vaccine killing people, would be so bad the resulting vaccination resistance could lead to millions of deaths. Yes, statistics maybe say that it would be a good deal now. But if you assume it fuels the antivac fire and decreases measles vaccination by 10% for the next 10 years, then we are looking at a death toll 10-100 times larger than COVID in the future, from that disease alone.

fwip 6y ago
SARS-COV-2 has approximately 5 times the fatality rate as the measles. Measles also only infects a person once. Preliminary data is pointing toward covid immunity lasting for only a few months.
- anoncake 6y ago
  Do you have a source for that? All I've seen is evidence that antibodies disappear after a while in many subjects but that is not at all the same thing.
  - fwip 6y ago
    That's a good point. I've done some more reading, prompted by your comment, and it looks like Other coronaviruses typically do have reinfection about a year after first infection: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20086439v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20086439v... - with antibody reduction occurring after about six months. I know there have been a few people who appeared to clear the virus but subsequently tested positive again - I don't know enough about the details here. Vox article with more links: https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twic... I hope that reinfection with this virus is less likely, but I don't think we yet have any data to suggest that it is much different than existing coronaviruses.
- brmgb 6y ago
  > Preliminary data is pointing toward covid immunity lasting for only a few months. As far as I know, that's not true at all. A King's College study has shown that the level of B cells in former patients blood declinened quickly after a few months. Still there has yet to be a study on T cells level and T cells seem to play a more important role than B cells in covid immunity.

fwip 6y ago

SARS-COV-2 has approximately 5 times the fatality rate as the measles. Measles also only infects a person once. Preliminary data is pointing toward covid immunity lasting for only a few months.

anoncake 6y ago
Do you have a source for that? All I've seen is evidence that antibodies disappear after a while in many subjects but that is not at all the same thing.
- fwip 6y ago
  That's a good point. I've done some more reading, prompted by your comment, and it looks like Other coronaviruses typically do have reinfection about a year after first infection: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20086439v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20086439v... - with antibody reduction occurring after about six months. I know there have been a few people who appeared to clear the virus but subsequently tested positive again - I don't know enough about the details here. Vox article with more links: https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twic... I hope that reinfection with this virus is less likely, but I don't think we yet have any data to suggest that it is much different than existing coronaviruses.
brmgb 6y ago
> Preliminary data is pointing toward covid immunity lasting for only a few months. As far as I know, that's not true at all. A King's College study has shown that the level of B cells in former patients blood declinened quickly after a few months. Still there has yet to be a study on T cells level and T cells seem to play a more important role than B cells in covid immunity.