3 ms·
> If meaningful scientific and technological progress occurs, then we reasonably would expect greater economic prosperity (though this may be offset by other fa
by vngzs 6y ago
> If meaningful scientific and technological progress occurs, then we reasonably would expect greater economic prosperity (though this may be offset by other factors). And also in reverse: If economic gains, as measured by certain key indicators, have been limited or nonexistent, then perhaps so has scientific and technological progress.
My eye-opening realization of American stagnation came in history class during high school. The teacher told us the narrative of progress through the 1800s, how industrialization brought more wealth and electricity improved quality of life. He spoke of an increase in wages that came with it: each decade, Americans were wealthier than before.
People assume the lives of their children would be better than their own. But in the 1960s, an American man could support a family of five: himself, his wife, and three kids was the norm. Sure, part of that can be explained by sexism and gender issues of the time, but the point was that women didn't have to work because a single income was sufficient to support a family. Today, most families are dual-income[0] as a matter of necessity, not necessarily desire. It's no longer obvious that progress will continue, and certainly not obvious that the progress we are making is a good thing for most people.
My grandparents, separately, once remarked that they had seen "perhaps the last real changes in quality of life any generation would have." Running water in homes, indoor toilets, microwaves, refrigerators, and the development of computer networks all happened in the 20th century. They predicted continued stagnation in human innovation, that most of the universe's great ideas had already been discovered.
Where are the big, boundary-pushing changes to life that the relentless pursuit of technology had promised? Where do we go from here? My father once speculated it would come from far-field wireless power transmission. That would kick off the next space race, pushing humanity farther into space than we could ever imagine by fuel. And certainly it would push a new generation of innovation forward, enabling ideas that would not have been possible before. What are the next transformative technologies waiting just around the corner, capable of changing and improving life for everyone on the planet?
[0]: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/famee.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/famee.nr0.htm
- sharadov 6y agoI agree that the hard problems are not being worked on, that's what happens when VCs descend on the market and are looking to 100X their investments. It's incredibly hard to work hard on difficult problems when you have to grow for growth's sake and pump out numbers that satisfy the market/VCs every quarter.
- troughway 6y agoMost people are not wired to be explorers or risk takers. That's where the whole rent-seeking mentality comes from, which is a form of risk aversion, and the incumbent laws and whatnot have put a hard stop on "what could have been".
- pcbro141 6y agoOnly a part of the mission, but there should be ambitious action taken to dramatically improve education and provide truly equal opportunity for all in the US. Pay teachers properly, give a proper education in all schools especially impoverished neighborhoods. The US should be ranking higher than it is in Math/Reading/Science scores compared to other countries. Other special programs to remedy the huge racial wealth gap from the slavery/Jim Crow/other institutional racism legacy. The US can and should do a much better job at providing better education and opportunities for all of its citizens.
- chrisco255 6y agoRobotics and AI have the ability to transform a great deal. We have still not fully explored Crispr and what's possible with biotech. AR & VR I think, once they reach maturity, will also transform society. Finally, I do think cryptocurrency will change as much about society as double entry bookkeeping did in the 14th century. This change may not be as radical for 1st world countries, but I think it will allow many developing countries to catch up much more rapidly.
- toohotatopic 6y agoWhy do we have to go? The big question is: What is awareness? That awareness is wherever you are. No need to go to outer space. However, once you can create awareness artificially, you can send it into space, without human time constraints. There is no problem in travelling for millions of years if your awareness doesn't end.
- Hypx 6y agoYou should at least bring up the story of Max Planck in the late 1800s. He was basically told not to enter physics, because supposedly nearly all of physics has already been discovery. We know what came next in physics. We don't know the future, and there's no way to say for sure that we've see the last big changes in life. Your grandparents could be proven laughably wrong in next few decades. That said, it is likely at this point that we've exhausted the current paradigm. That there isn't much left to gain in maximizing existing scientific theories, or pumping billions into mature technologies. These concepts and philosophies have failed to real creating something of note lately, and that might be a sign that they are at their limits. So the next step would be a step-change function and something completely unexpected.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]