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Risk homeostasis is real, yes; but the answer is a mixture of your view and the article's view. Those in charge declared themselves prepared, and weren't consci

Risk homeostasis is real, yes; but the answer is a mixture of your view and the article's view. Those in charge declared themselves prepared, and weren't consciously lying. But in their heart-of-hearts they didn't think it would happen (on their watch) so they never examined realistically what prepared would actually mean. Delusion is our daily bread. Fantasy is just the butter.

mytailorisrich 6y ago
Did any European country declared themselves prepared in any way other than to placate public opinion? I am sure that they knew full well that they weren't prepared (Reports from previous years that said exactly were leaked or mentioned in the media), and the initial and continued reaction to Covid-19 in my view showed very plainly that they were not prepared. When the shit actually hit the fan, as it did at the beginning of the year they went into panic/damage control mode. At that point PR is to keep everyone calm and to save the government if possible. Showing up on TV and saying "yep this is going to be shit and we're not prepared. Good bless you all." is not something any government is going to do. I think the delusion really is to think that it wouldn't happen, either on their watch or at all. The example in France shows that very well: They knew that masks would be needed in case of pandemic, but they clearly saw no urgency in maintaining a state of readiness. We're in fact very lucky that Covid-19 is actually not that bad. Thinking about it, this is what's terrifying.
- Nomentatus 6y ago
  Yes, the reports and declarations were made to the EU, by all countries, and there were regular reviews by a European agency vetting those preparedness self-assessments (but that body was hamstrung, couldn't really contradict them.) See today's NYTimes: Europe Said It Was Pandemic-Ready. Pride Was Its Downfall. The coronavirus exposed European countries’ misplaced confidence in faulty models, bureaucratic busywork and their own wealth. By David D. Kirkpatrick, Matt Apuzzo and Selam Gebrekidan July 20, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/world/europe/coronavirus-mistakes-france-uk-italy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/world/europe/coronavirus-...
- Nomentatus 6y ago
  COVID-19 is that bad - the virus itself is very much in the sweet spot, that is not so vicious it's easily detected and squelched, but not so harmless we can let it run through the population. It's probably close to the worst case, in fact, given our current technology and public health knowledge. Viruses optimized for spread are not optimized for dealing death, and vice versa. I'd say all were sleep-walking - doing preventative medicine theatre. If you'd quizzed them (and they were quizzed) they wouldn't have said (and didn't say) "It won't happen" they would say "we're prepared." But in their heart of hearts - that is unconsciously - (see my first comment) they obviously didn't think it would happen to them, now. We hate to think unpleasant thoughts, and really hate to be the first one in our crowd to do so.
- Nomentatus 6y ago
  Compare the 911 attacks and airport security. It was not regarded as a joke generally (although I thought it a joke well before the attack), but in hindsight, it was "security theater" not security at all. It's common for our actions and conscious thoughts to contradict: that's what unconscious minds are for according to the Selfish Gene introduction's hypothesis. Or compare how unprepared Austrohungaria actually was for WWI, which it started. The examples are endless.

mytailorisrich 6y ago

Did any European country declared themselves prepared in any way other than to placate public opinion? I am sure that they knew full well that they weren't prepared (Reports from previous years that said exactly were leaked or mentioned in the media), and the initial and continued reaction to Covid-19 in my view showed very plainly that they were not prepared. When the shit actually hit the fan, as it did at the beginning of the year they went into panic/damage control mode. At that point PR is to keep everyone calm and to save the government if possible. Showing up on TV and saying "yep this is going to be shit and we're not prepared. Good bless you all." is not something any government is going to do. I think the delusion really is to think that it wouldn't happen, either on their watch or at all. The example in France shows that very well: They knew that masks would be needed in case of pandemic, but they clearly saw no urgency in maintaining a state of readiness. We're in fact very lucky that Covid-19 is actually not that bad. Thinking about it, this is what's terrifying.

Nomentatus 6y ago
Yes, the reports and declarations were made to the EU, by all countries, and there were regular reviews by a European agency vetting those preparedness self-assessments (but that body was hamstrung, couldn't really contradict them.) See today's NYTimes: Europe Said It Was Pandemic-Ready. Pride Was Its Downfall. The coronavirus exposed European countries’ misplaced confidence in faulty models, bureaucratic busywork and their own wealth. By David D. Kirkpatrick, Matt Apuzzo and Selam Gebrekidan July 20, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/world/europe/coronavirus-mistakes-france-uk-italy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/world/europe/coronavirus-...
Nomentatus 6y ago
COVID-19 is that bad - the virus itself is very much in the sweet spot, that is not so vicious it's easily detected and squelched, but not so harmless we can let it run through the population. It's probably close to the worst case, in fact, given our current technology and public health knowledge. Viruses optimized for spread are not optimized for dealing death, and vice versa. I'd say all were sleep-walking - doing preventative medicine theatre. If you'd quizzed them (and they were quizzed) they wouldn't have said (and didn't say) "It won't happen" they would say "we're prepared." But in their heart of hearts - that is unconsciously - (see my first comment) they obviously didn't think it would happen to them, now. We hate to think unpleasant thoughts, and really hate to be the first one in our crowd to do so.
Nomentatus 6y ago
Compare the 911 attacks and airport security. It was not regarded as a joke generally (although I thought it a joke well before the attack), but in hindsight, it was "security theater" not security at all. It's common for our actions and conscious thoughts to contradict: that's what unconscious minds are for according to the Selfish Gene introduction's hypothesis. Or compare how unprepared Austrohungaria actually was for WWI, which it started. The examples are endless.