5 ms·

Europe Said It Was Pandemic-Ready. Pride Was Its Downfall

2 points by js2 6y ago

mytailorisrich 6y ago
I don't think that Europe was pandemic-ready, or that it thought it was. Rather, like everyone else apparently, it thought that it would not happen. An example of that: France bought a huge stockpile of face masks in 2009-2010 because of the swine flu pandemic. Since then they expired and were not replace, hence no masks available in 2020. They thought it was not needed and governments/politicians have problems thinking long term and justifying expenses that may not be needed or needed once every 50 years to their constituents. This might change for as long as this pandemic remains in living memory, then I'm sure we'll go back to complacency.
- rbecker 6y ago
  How severely degraded is the performance of 'expired' masks? Because I think they could still massively help, at least in non-medical settings.
  - Nomentatus 6y ago
    Canada has answered this question. It tossed out millions of masks a year or two ago (the vast majority of its stockpile IIRC) 'cause they were just past the expiry date (the real reason was that a sharp-penciled bureaucrat wanted to save the storage fee.) Post-COVID they tested and found the degree of degradation in such cases to be very small. The expiry date is set by the manufacturer, after all; and it's in their interest that it comes up sooner, rather than later. Not the only business plan to ever cause mass death, I'm sure. My own 10-year old plus stock of (industrial) N-95 masks were mostly sealed from oxygen (just in plastic bags) and did fine. Good as new as far as I could tell, certainly. A couple that had been left out for a decade had foam seals that crumbled away entirely, and rubber bands that were fragile. But those in held in bags were pristine.
- Nomentatus 6y ago
  Risk homeostasis is real, yes; but the answer is a mixture of your view and the article's view. Those in charge declared themselves prepared, and weren't consciously lying. But in their heart-of-hearts they didn't think it would happen (on their watch) so they never examined realistically what prepared would actually mean. Delusion is our daily bread. Fantasy is just the butter.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    Did any European country declared themselves prepared in any way other than to placate public opinion? I am sure that they knew full well that they weren't prepared (Reports from previous years that said exactly were leaked or mentioned in the media), and the initial and continued reaction to Covid-19 in my view showed very plainly that they were not prepared. When the shit actually hit the fan, as it did at the beginning of the year they went into panic/damage control mode. At that point PR is to keep everyone calm and to save the government if possible. Showing up on TV and saying "yep this is going to be shit and we're not prepared. Good bless you all." is not something any government is going to do. I think the delusion really is to think that it wouldn't happen, either on their watch or at all. The example in France shows that very well: They knew that masks would be needed in case of pandemic, but they clearly saw no urgency in maintaining a state of readiness. We're in fact very lucky that Covid-19 is actually not that bad. Thinking about it, this is what's terrifying.
    - Nomentatus 6y ago
      Yes, the reports and declarations were made to the EU, by all countries, and there were regular reviews by a European agency vetting those preparedness self-assessments (but that body was hamstrung, couldn't really contradict them.) See today's NYTimes: Europe Said It Was Pandemic-Ready. Pride Was Its Downfall. The coronavirus exposed European countries’ misplaced confidence in faulty models, bureaucratic busywork and their own wealth. By David D. Kirkpatrick, Matt Apuzzo and Selam Gebrekidan July 20, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/world/europe/coronavirus-mistakes-france-uk-italy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/world/europe/coronavirus-...
    - 6y ago

2 points by js2 6y ago

I don't think that Europe was pandemic-ready, or that it thought it was. Rather, like everyone else apparently, it thought that it would not happen. An example of that: France bought a huge stockpile of face masks in 2009-2010 because of the swine flu pandemic. Since then they expired and were not replace, hence no masks available in 2020. They thought it was not needed and governments/politicians have problems thinking long term and justifying expenses that may not be needed or needed once every 50 years to their constituents. This might change for as long as this pandemic remains in living memory, then I'm sure we'll go back to complacency.

rbecker 6y ago
How severely degraded is the performance of 'expired' masks? Because I think they could still massively help, at least in non-medical settings.
- Nomentatus 6y ago
  Canada has answered this question. It tossed out millions of masks a year or two ago (the vast majority of its stockpile IIRC) 'cause they were just past the expiry date (the real reason was that a sharp-penciled bureaucrat wanted to save the storage fee.) Post-COVID they tested and found the degree of degradation in such cases to be very small. The expiry date is set by the manufacturer, after all; and it's in their interest that it comes up sooner, rather than later. Not the only business plan to ever cause mass death, I'm sure. My own 10-year old plus stock of (industrial) N-95 masks were mostly sealed from oxygen (just in plastic bags) and did fine. Good as new as far as I could tell, certainly. A couple that had been left out for a decade had foam seals that crumbled away entirely, and rubber bands that were fragile. But those in held in bags were pristine.
Nomentatus 6y ago
Risk homeostasis is real, yes; but the answer is a mixture of your view and the article's view. Those in charge declared themselves prepared, and weren't consciously lying. But in their heart-of-hearts they didn't think it would happen (on their watch) so they never examined realistically what prepared would actually mean. Delusion is our daily bread. Fantasy is just the butter.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  Did any European country declared themselves prepared in any way other than to placate public opinion? I am sure that they knew full well that they weren't prepared (Reports from previous years that said exactly were leaked or mentioned in the media), and the initial and continued reaction to Covid-19 in my view showed very plainly that they were not prepared. When the shit actually hit the fan, as it did at the beginning of the year they went into panic/damage control mode. At that point PR is to keep everyone calm and to save the government if possible. Showing up on TV and saying "yep this is going to be shit and we're not prepared. Good bless you all." is not something any government is going to do. I think the delusion really is to think that it wouldn't happen, either on their watch or at all. The example in France shows that very well: They knew that masks would be needed in case of pandemic, but they clearly saw no urgency in maintaining a state of readiness. We're in fact very lucky that Covid-19 is actually not that bad. Thinking about it, this is what's terrifying.
  - Nomentatus 6y ago
    Yes, the reports and declarations were made to the EU, by all countries, and there were regular reviews by a European agency vetting those preparedness self-assessments (but that body was hamstrung, couldn't really contradict them.) See today's NYTimes: Europe Said It Was Pandemic-Ready. Pride Was Its Downfall. The coronavirus exposed European countries’ misplaced confidence in faulty models, bureaucratic busywork and their own wealth. By David D. Kirkpatrick, Matt Apuzzo and Selam Gebrekidan July 20, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/world/europe/coronavirus-mistakes-france-uk-italy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/world/europe/coronavirus-...
  - 6y ago