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Interesting, I don't get that even on rereading -- but yup, you're certainly right that that would be a crazy thing to allege :-) I actually do think that ther

by gpjt 16y ago

Interesting, I don't get that even on rereading -- but yup, you're certainly right that that would be a crazy thing to allege :-) I actually do think that there is a bubble, but that's more to do with crazy valuations like the recent Color.com investment than anything to do with AWS.

kls 16y ago
My interpretations are probably wrong more than they are right so take it with a grain of salt. It just seemed to me to infer that. I think there is a bubble as well, but this one is going to last a long time. The fact of the mater is we have inflated everything else and popped it so now the only thing we can do is re-inflate tech which has to stay inflated for some years to come until the real estate and stock bubbles are forgotten then we can again shift into them.
- gpjt 16y ago
  You may be right. People were talking about a bubble for several years back in the late 90s before it finally burst in 2000, so there's no reason to assume this one will be any faster. That's actually why I was looking at investing in Amazon AWS; I don't have enough money to invest in startups, but I was hoping that I could buy some stock in something that would grow as startups do; the old metaphor of buying the company that sells shovels to gold prospectors. That's why I was a bit disappointed that AWS is such a small part of Amazon's service, because it meant that I couldn't use them that way -- and because they're such a massively dominant player in the hosting market, there seemed to be little point in investing in (eg.) Rackspace instead. Still, my investment track record is kind of spotty, so I may well be totally wrong with that strategy anyway.
  - kls 16y ago
    If you want to invest in this bubble, commodities is where it is at, more direct and they are the only other item left that had not been hyper inflated, the trick as with all bubbles is to time your exit. Find a commodity, any commodity that has not already hyper inflated and get it, it will inflate, the commodities pop is going to be worse than any of the bubbles before them.

by gpjt 16y ago

kls 16y ago

My interpretations are probably wrong more than they are right so take it with a grain of salt. It just seemed to me to infer that. I think there is a bubble as well, but this one is going to last a long time. The fact of the mater is we have inflated everything else and popped it so now the only thing we can do is re-inflate tech which has to stay inflated for some years to come until the real estate and stock bubbles are forgotten then we can again shift into them.

gpjt 16y ago
You may be right. People were talking about a bubble for several years back in the late 90s before it finally burst in 2000, so there's no reason to assume this one will be any faster. That's actually why I was looking at investing in Amazon AWS; I don't have enough money to invest in startups, but I was hoping that I could buy some stock in something that would grow as startups do; the old metaphor of buying the company that sells shovels to gold prospectors. That's why I was a bit disappointed that AWS is such a small part of Amazon's service, because it meant that I couldn't use them that way -- and because they're such a massively dominant player in the hosting market, there seemed to be little point in investing in (eg.) Rackspace instead. Still, my investment track record is kind of spotty, so I may well be totally wrong with that strategy anyway.
- kls 16y ago
  If you want to invest in this bubble, commodities is where it is at, more direct and they are the only other item left that had not been hyper inflated, the trick as with all bubbles is to time your exit. Find a commodity, any commodity that has not already hyper inflated and get it, it will inflate, the commodities pop is going to be worse than any of the bubbles before them.