3 ms·

No, at this point we can be pretty certain that this disease doesn't affect young children as badly as flu. Plenty of kids have tested positive for COVID19, but

No, at this point we can be pretty certain that this disease doesn't affect young children as badly as flu. Plenty of kids have tested positive for COVID19, but almost none have died. This disease is so pervasive we'd see excess showing up in that age group and we just don't. Kids just don't seem to get as sick as adults. What we don't know is how effective kids are as transmission vectors. If COVID19 spreads rapidly through a school and kids can get thier caretakers sick, thats a real problem. The limited data we have in suggests that not only do young kids not have limited disease, they also don't spread it easily, but all the data I've seen is almost anecdotal.

tcbawo 6y ago
The long term effects of flu are known. The long term effects of Covid-19 on any demographic are unknown. Polio killed less than 2000 people per year prior to the development of the vaccine, but impacted many more.
jedberg 6y ago
> No, at this point we can be pretty certain that this disease doesn't affect young children as badly as flu That's just straight up wrong. According to the CDC, as of June 23, COVID-19 was three times deadlier than the flu for kids 5-17, and 190 times deadlier for kids 0-4: https://i.insider.com/5ef234caf34d051bc821d0d8?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp https://i.insider.com/5ef234caf34d051bc821d0d8?width=700&for...
- grandmczeb 6y ago
  That chart is extremely misleading. You can't compare estimated flu cases and deaths with confirmed COVID19 cases and deaths.
- topkai22 6y ago
  Mea culpa, I had the <1 numbers of flu in my head as the <10 number- I shouldn't have said "as badly". However, those charts aren't great- as someone else noted comparing estimated flu numbers with confirmed COVID cases is problematic. In my local region, a randomized serology study suggested that we have at least 3x as many infections as confirmed cases, and a raw extrapolation of deaths to IFR rates suggests its even higher. It's best to say "the fatality rate is near the same order as the flu for school age children"
cameldrv 6y ago
This is not true. The experiment has been run. In June, 47% of COVID cases in Israel were from schools. The schools there are now closed. https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openi...
- Animats 6y ago
  The road from anti-coronavirus paradigm to rampant infection in this country of 9 million people followed two months of almost total lockdown. May 17 also was the day Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former rival Benny Gantz swore in their “corona emergency government,” whose sole declared purpose is to fight the spread of the virus. Netanyahu’s decree that the nation’s entire school system would reopen was a political flourish to signal everything was under control.
  - saagarjha 6y ago
    One would think that coronavirus was one of those mind-control fungi that makes you do stupid things that increase its spread.
- topkai22 6y ago
  There are several other studies that are indicating that spread isn't as high among children as adults. See https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/children-over-age-10-spread-covid-19-as-much-as-adults-study-finds-1.5030231 https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/children-over-age-... The article is arguing a point, but it also links to a lot of the other papers I've seen. Note that "not as transmissible" doesn't mean "not transmissible". It's entirely possible for the disease to be harder to transmit in kids but still be enough to sustain community spread. I think we don't know yet. That's not a full-throated endorsement of reopening schools, but it should inform a risk/reward based approach to what institutions should close or open and when.
  - cameldrv 6y ago
    Sure, look at the risks and the rewards. It's quite clear that if we run the fall semester in person, we will get a burn-through. It's not so much of a risk as it is a cost. Currently, the virus is out of control. We might be able to bring it back under control. The Israeli experience suggests that, since half their cases were from schools, opening schools doubles R. There's no measure that will be realistically implemented in the next month that would cut R in half. It could be that this is the least bad of a set of options. Convince me.
watwut 6y ago
Covid is more deadly then flu in literally any age group. It also takes more time to cure. Kids do handle covid better then adults, but kids do handle flu better then adults too. We do know that kids can be transmission vectors and there is nothing to suggest they cant be.

tcbawo 6y ago

The long term effects of flu are known. The long term effects of Covid-19 on any demographic are unknown. Polio killed less than 2000 people per year prior to the development of the vaccine, but impacted many more.

jedberg 6y ago

> No, at this point we can be pretty certain that this disease doesn't affect young children as badly as flu That's just straight up wrong. According to the CDC, as of June 23, COVID-19 was three times deadlier than the flu for kids 5-17, and 190 times deadlier for kids 0-4: https://i.insider.com/5ef234caf34d051bc821d0d8?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp https://i.insider.com/5ef234caf34d051bc821d0d8?width=700&for...

grandmczeb 6y ago
That chart is extremely misleading. You can't compare estimated flu cases and deaths with confirmed COVID19 cases and deaths.
topkai22 6y ago
Mea culpa, I had the <1 numbers of flu in my head as the <10 number- I shouldn't have said "as badly". However, those charts aren't great- as someone else noted comparing estimated flu numbers with confirmed COVID cases is problematic. In my local region, a randomized serology study suggested that we have at least 3x as many infections as confirmed cases, and a raw extrapolation of deaths to IFR rates suggests its even higher. It's best to say "the fatality rate is near the same order as the flu for school age children"

cameldrv 6y ago

This is not true. The experiment has been run. In June, 47% of COVID cases in Israel were from schools. The schools there are now closed. https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openi...

Animats 6y ago
The road from anti-coronavirus paradigm to rampant infection in this country of 9 million people followed two months of almost total lockdown. May 17 also was the day Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former rival Benny Gantz swore in their “corona emergency government,” whose sole declared purpose is to fight the spread of the virus. Netanyahu’s decree that the nation’s entire school system would reopen was a political flourish to signal everything was under control.
- saagarjha 6y ago
  One would think that coronavirus was one of those mind-control fungi that makes you do stupid things that increase its spread.
topkai22 6y ago
There are several other studies that are indicating that spread isn't as high among children as adults. See https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/children-over-age-10-spread-covid-19-as-much-as-adults-study-finds-1.5030231 https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/children-over-age-... The article is arguing a point, but it also links to a lot of the other papers I've seen. Note that "not as transmissible" doesn't mean "not transmissible". It's entirely possible for the disease to be harder to transmit in kids but still be enough to sustain community spread. I think we don't know yet. That's not a full-throated endorsement of reopening schools, but it should inform a risk/reward based approach to what institutions should close or open and when.
- cameldrv 6y ago
  Sure, look at the risks and the rewards. It's quite clear that if we run the fall semester in person, we will get a burn-through. It's not so much of a risk as it is a cost. Currently, the virus is out of control. We might be able to bring it back under control. The Israeli experience suggests that, since half their cases were from schools, opening schools doubles R. There's no measure that will be realistically implemented in the next month that would cut R in half. It could be that this is the least bad of a set of options. Convince me.

watwut 6y ago

Covid is more deadly then flu in literally any age group. It also takes more time to cure. Kids do handle covid better then adults, but kids do handle flu better then adults too. We do know that kids can be transmission vectors and there is nothing to suggest they cant be.